Post hoc ergo propter hoc? -- Owen
On Thu, Jan 19, 2017 at 8:34 AM, Robert J. Cordingley <rob...@cirrillian.com > wrote: > Aren't you now talking about different reasoning models/tasks: > Classification > Diagnosis > Hypothetical Reasoning > Bayesian > Fuzzy logic > etc. > > On the other hand I've always felt the medical community named too many > diseases and conditions after their symptoms usually in a hi-falutin format > rather than an actual cause, e.g. abdominal aortic aneurysm or after the > person identifying it, e.g. Alois Alzheimer. Which get's back to Glen's > circularity. > > Robert C > > > On 1/19/17 7:14 AM, Frank Wimberly wrote: > > Point taken, Eric. That is more realistic. I was making the point that > even for non-psychiatric problems the symptoms (partly) define the > disease. There are tests like biopsies and cultures of organisms that > confirm the diagnoses of those diagnoses. Some psychiatric disorders can > be confirmed by biopsy (e.g. Alzheimer's) but they are often done > posthumously. > > In my mother-in-law's case they said they thought she had pneumonia. I > don't remember the details but I know that they tried to drain her chest > but couldn't even insert a tube. Four weeks after the first symptom she > died. Of course they had changed the diagnosis early on. Northwestern > Memorial Hospital, 1984. > > Nick will, I hope, explain the paper at Friam. > > Frank > > Frank Wimberly > Phone (505) 670-9918 > > On Jan 19, 2017 6:48 AM, "Eric Charles" <eric.phillip.char...@gmail.com> > wrote: > >> But Frank.... doesn't it normally go a bit more like this: >> >> Why is my husband unable to breathe and coughs all the time? >> >> I hypothesize that he has pneumonia - a chest x-ray is a cheap and fairly >> reliable test of that hypothesis. >> >> Then let's do a chest x-ray! >> >> Well ma'am, the x-ray shows white lumps, supporting the hypothesis. >> Pneumonia is often caused by a bacterial infection, and because you say he >> didn't have a cold previously, I think that is the case here. We can test >> that hypothesis with the administration of certain antibiotics. >> >> Then let's get those antibiotics! >> >> Well ma'am, I see that after taking the antibiotics, the white lumps, >> difficulty breathing, and coughs resolved. Based on that, I feel confident >> that my hypothesis was correct, and that your husband's pneumonia is now >> cured. >> >> Wait a minute. How do you know he had pneumonia? >> >> I don't really. But the antibiotics seem to have helped, and that leads >> me both to have confidence in my original hypothesis and, ironically, to >> not really care that much about the hypothesis. All that really matters is >> that your husband is better, and that I am likely to give antibiotics again >> if I meet someone that presents in the same manner. >> >> Oh. >> >> P.S. See also Nick's paper, for quite different issues. Nick is >> interested fundamental issues regarding what gets to count as an >> explanation. But note that the discussion above any causality is quite >> different than in the prior anecdotes. In this case, >> taking-an-xray explains why we are looking at images of white lumps, and >> taking-antibiotics explains why the symptoms resolved. It matters not a bit >> if the entity referred to as pneumonia is "real", if it is mere >> "symptomology" or a viable "causal" agent responsible for the original >> difficulties, etc. Not that those are not interesting questions, just that >> they are (potentially) irrelevant to this particular interaction. >> >> >> >> ----------- >> Eric P. Charles, Ph.D. >> Supervisory Survey Statistician >> U.S. Marine Corps >> >> On Wed, Jan 18, 2017 at 8:17 PM, Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com> >> wrote: >> >>> Why is my husband unable to breathe and coughs all the time? And what >>> is this large white area on his chest x-ray? >>> >>> He has lung cancer. >>> >>> How do you know? >>> >>> Because he has difficulty breathing, he coughs constantly, and he has a >>> positive chest x-ray. >>> >>> Frank C. Wimberly >>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz >>> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >>> >>> wimber...@gmail.com wimbe...@cal.berkeley.edu >>> Phone: (505) 995-8715 Cell: (505) 670-9918 >>> >>> -----Original Message----- >>> From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of glen ? >>> Sent: Wednesday, January 18, 2017 5:32 PM >>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group >>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The root of personality disorders >>> >>> >>> I found this opinion refreshing: >>> >>> Narcissistic Personality Disorder and the President-Elect >>> >>> http://behaviorismandmentalhealth.com/2017/01/16/narcissisti >>> c-personality-disorder-and-the-president-elect/ >>> >>> I particularly liked the (strawman) circularity caricatured by >>> conflating phenomenology with ontology: >>> >>> > Wife: Why is my husband so self-important; why does he have such a >>> sense of entitlement? >>> > Psychiatrist: Because he has an illness called narcissistic >>> personality disorder. >>> > Wife: How do you know he has this illness? >>> > Psychiatrist: Because he is so self-important and has such a sense of >>> entitlement. >>> >>> But, personally, seeing [gag] Trump as the epitome of everything that's >>> wrong with our culture, I can sympathize with the idea of using whatever >>> tool we might have available to _demonstrate_ to others how thoroughly >>> unable the man is to fill the role of President. But we should be careful >>> not to abandon our own principles in the process. >>> >>> -- >>> ☣ glen >>> >>> ============================================================ >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe >>> http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >>> >>> >>> ============================================================ >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >>> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >>> >> >> >> ============================================================ >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >> > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove > > > -- > Cirrillian > Web Design & Development > Santa Fe, NMhttp://cirrillian.com281-989-6272 <(281)%20989-6272> (cell) > Member Design Corps of Santa Fe > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >
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