Eric, ‘n all,
The Pandemic Cartoon, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling is REALLY GOOD. The basic message is that we are effed from here to Sunday because we don’t know the initial conditions. It’s like modeling the weather on a day when all the weather observers are known to be drunk. And that message comes through even tho the cartoon NEVER reminds us of the stupendous irrationality of non-linear systems. But one thing we do know. We have bent the curve in Santa Fe. Please see attachment. Now, mind you, I still think there are about 100 active cases of the virus in the County at the moment and until we know where each of those people is and what she/he is doing, we had better stay home and stay masked. Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> thompnicks...@gmail.com <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> On Behalf Of Eric Charles Sent: Tuesday, April 14, 2020 10:24 AM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com> Subject: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19 Most of you probably know the site Five Thirty Eight, which emerged over the last few election cycles as the top nerdy polling / public-opinion-modeling site. Some of you know SMBC, which has spent quite a few years towards the top of the pantheon of nerd comics. Well, the two collaborated on a long-form comic explaining why it is so hard to get stable models of Covid-19. It is really well done. If you have been struggling to explain to people how models like this work and why they are challenging, I highly recommend you try sharing this with them: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling ----------- Eric P. Charles, Ph.D. Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist American University - Adjunct Instructor
Coronavirus New Mexico numbers extended.xlsx
Description: MS-Excel 2007 spreadsheet
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