Tip the scales, Florida!
https://www.newsweek.com/florida-beaches-florida-moron-twitter-1498750
https://twitter.com/search?q=%23FloridaMorons&src=typed_query
On 4/18/20, 4:07 PM, "Friam on behalf of Prof David West"
<friam-boun...@redfish.com on behalf of profw...@fastmail.fm> wrote:
Consider three entities making 2016 political predictions and their
predictions.
1- "cognoscenti" those citing poll data, Nate Silver (albeit as everyone
notes, the citation was more interpretation than citation), pundits, et. al. —
Trump, at various times, has 1/1000 to 1/3 chance of winning the election.
2- Scott Adams - Trump "very likely" will win to "almost certain" he will
win.
3- davew - Trump will win.
# 3 is a fool because he made no effort whatsoever to hedge his prediction.
The first group used traditional polling, statistical modelling, etc. to
come to their conclusions.
Scott Adams used none of those methods/tools but, as described in his book
— Win Bigly — the language and rhetoric analysis tools/techniques he did use.
davew remains coy about how he came to his certainty.
QUESTIONS: Are there different approaches, different avenues, different
means, for acquiring "knowledge?" I am being vague here because I do not know
how to make the question precise. But it would have something to do with
different definitions of what is considered data and different techniques/tools
for digesting that data to form conclusions — in this instance predictions.
If there are different approaches, is a comparative analysis of them
possible? desirable?
Different approaches — useful in different contexts? How to determine
appropriate contexts.
Or, is there but one avenue to knowledge — Science — and all else is
idiosyncratic opinion?
Personally, I think there is use in pursuing this type of question and then
using the answers / insights to makes sense of the multiple conversations
concerning COVID and the response thereto.
davew
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