> Not directly relevant, but another good sci-fi about genetics — Daniel > Suarez' Change Agent. > > davew
Thanks... I read that earlier this year in response to your general reference to Suarez (starting with Delta-V?) and my body and soul *still* ache from the memories! and Marcus... yes, GATTACA didn't (apparently) anticipate CRISPR Trans/Posthumanist Utopias have a strong flavor of Dystopia for me... Eloi & Morlocks > > > On Sun, Apr 19, 2020, at 10:41 AM, Steven A Smith wrote: >> >> Marcus - >> >> >> >> I believe that Andrew Niccol DID imagine something like that: >> >> >> I wish I had a pithy preamble for this dystopian BioPunk reference, >> but perhaps it speaks for itself? >> >> >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gattaca >> >> >> - Steve >> >>> Steve writes: >>> >>> < The whole world is responding to what is *roughly* the same virus >>> with *roughly* what is the same human phenotype/metabolism in a >>> myriad of *roughly* the same modes of human organization. > >>> >>> There are hundreds of common HLA alleles across humans. In a >>> diverse country like the US, with hundreds of thousands of positive >>> cases and tens of thousands of deaths the hundreds of alleles would >>> be well sampled. Too bad our medical surveillance is so bad, and >>> made worse by the moron. Imagine if everyone had full genome >>> sequencing and every viral sample was deep sequenced. >>> >>> Marcus >>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------ >>> >>> *From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> >>> <mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf of Steven A Smith >>> <sasm...@swcp.com> <mailto:sasm...@swcp.com> >>> *Sent:* Sunday, April 19, 2020 10:11 AM >>> *To:* friam@redfish.com <mailto:friam@redfish.com> >>> <friam@redfish.com> <mailto:friam@redfish.com> >>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why >>> >>> >>>> One way to address the N/A issue is to repeatedly perturb the real-world >>>> system so as to elicit those correlations. When that is practical.. >>> >>> We are, in a time of real-world system perturbation, right now. The >>> whole world is responding to what is *roughly* the same virus with >>> *roughly* what is the same human phenotype/metabolism in a myriad of >>> *roughly* the same modes of human organization. This IS a testbed >>> of human (-system?) response to a widespread, somewhat invisible >>> threat. From Wuhan to Singapore to Italy to Iran to Sweden to >>> Germany to NYC to WA State to the Navajo Nation to Florida's >>> beaches, this IS a huge coupled systems dynamics/agent-model >>> executed in real-time by real-people with real casualties and real >>> consequences. >>> >>> We are, to varying degrees (collectively) recording the results of >>> these "experiments" and if we are lucky (or smart, or both) we will >>> do some post-game analysis intended to understand more-better how >>> best to (self-)organize around a (nearly) existential world-scale >>> threat. And to the extent this is a game that will never end, we >>> have to begin the analysis while we cope with it's consequences. >>> Feels a bit like the models pof Physics Interreality. >>> >>> https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.75.057201 >>> <https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.75.057201> >>> >>> Hanging too aggressive of a model on this (or collecting the data >>> against too premature of a model) will reduce the utility of such >>> data gathering and analysis. Whatever the dual of overfitting a >>> model is? Overmodeling? Premature Modeling? >>> >>> What I'm looking (askance) to(ward) Pearl for is a better way of >>> rapidly constructing, maintaining, revising as generic of a model as >>> possible in response to "this moment". Four months ago we should >>> have been interested in models of how one limits a virus such as >>> COVID19 getting a foothold in this country. One month ago we >>> should have been interested in how one limits COVID19 (with new >>> understanding of it's virility, it's fatality, it's symptoms, it's >>> mode of spread) once it HAS a foothold, now we are faced with >>> trying to understand how to cope with it once it is pervasive in our >>> population whilst continuing/returning to "business as usual" and in >>> another thread, I'm encouraging that we "try to >>> plan/consider/think-about" what we want to do with this somewhat >>> "blank slate" (our ass?) we are having handed to us. >>> >>> And how to think about this without premature modeling... what I >>> think I was railing (whining/pushing-back) about with Dave on the >>> Bellamyist thread earlier this morning. >>> >>> - Steve >>> >>>>> On Apr 19, 2020, at 8:33 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ <geprope...@gmail.com> >>>>> <mailto:geprope...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>> >>>>> Well, the argument I often end up making is that you can do a kind of >>>>> face validation with the fake data. Show it to someone who's used to >>>>> dealing with that sort of data and if the fake data looks a lot like the >>>>> data they normally deal with, then maybe more data-taking isn't >>>>> necessary. If it looks fake to the "expert", then more data-taking is >>>>> definitely needed. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>> On 4/19/20 8:29 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: >>>>>> I have a hard time with this as a way to extend data. If it is >>>>>> high-dimensional it will be under-sampled. Seems better to me to >>>>>> measure or simulate more so that the joint distribution can be >>>>>> realistic. And if you can do that there is no reason to infer the joint >>>>>> distribution because you *have* it. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>> On Apr 19, 2020, at 8:18 AM, Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com> >>>>>>>> <mailto:wimber...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Going back and forth: If you infer the causal graph from observational >>>>>>> data you can use that graph to simulate data with the same joint >>>>>>> distribution as the original data. >>>>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> ☣ uǝlƃ >>>>> >>>>> .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... >>>>> .... . ... >>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>>> unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>>> >>>> .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... >>>> .... . ... >>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>> unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>> >>>> >>> >>> .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... >>> .... . ... >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>> unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>> >> .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- >> ... .... . ... >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> > > > .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... > .... . ... > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
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