It seems like estimating/tracking R(t) is key to re-opening (LIBERATE!) strategies.
> This just in via Josh Thorpe. > > I've been wondering if anyone had a methodology for calculating the > COVID19 R /Replication Number./ > > https://rt.live/ > > apparently adapted from our own (LANL) Luis Bettencourt's work on H5N1 > using a Bayesian approach > > https://github.com/k-sys/covid-19/blob/master/Realtime%20R0.ipynb > > This notebook is pretty big and pretty dense, I'm trying to skim > through it and get a feel for it. > > It appears superficially that they are using nothing more than > reported new cases smoothed by a Gaussian filter to remove > reporting/test/delay artifacts. > > What I'm not clear on quite yet is how (if) this approach handles the > intrinsic delay between exposure and onset of symptoms sufficient to > yield a confirmed case? If that (variable) delay is not factored in > then the R(t) would seem to be a smeared reflection of R(t-n...t) > where "n" is the maximum number of days between exposure and > confirmation. I'll keep looking. > > I wish the summary view had a time-slider to watch the states R(t) > evolve... the buttons included for different previous times > (yesterday, last week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks) give a hint of this. > > I'm surprised at how high some of the R values were even over 4.0 for > some states at some time. > > I'm also surprised at how many states seem to have dropped to/below > 1.0. And also how many seem to have dipped below 1.0 and bounced > back up. This would seem to imply that many states hit a high level > of social distancing/hygiene and then relaxed it (recently?). > > I also haven't sussed out why the different states have such different > error envelopes... > > I look forward to others possibly digging into this and sharing their > observations. > > - STeve > > > .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... > .... . ... > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
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