On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 7:18 PM Steve Smith <sasm...@swcp.com> wrote:
> My nephew in Tucson very likely had it... pretty harsh symptoms for about > a month (April into May) and still recovering his stamina/breath... he > called his doc who advised him to "stay home and ride it out" but said he > couldn't offer a test unless he was admitted into the hospital. He may now > be able to get an antigen test if he insists. His sister is a freshly > minted RN who cares for dozens of COVID19 patients in a "nearly" full > hospital in Riverside CA... many of the emergency personnel in the county > she works with have contracted it (because their PPE isn't as good as the > hospital workers, and they have less control over their contact with > infected persons). I know about a half-dozen people who *want to believe* > they had it for one reason or another. I'm doubting most if not all of > them. > > My $.02 analysis: The algebra of network transmission is geometric but > the awareness of other's condition is closer to linear. Just because > every actor is 7 degrees from Kevin Bacon doesn't mean many of them know > the path(s) between them. This means if/when you do contract it, you > probably won't see it coming, especially with the higher rates of > asymptomatic infections being recognized? > > From rt.live, two/thirds of the states have an Ro over 1.0, with the error > bars, one might argue that many are around 1.33, which happens to also be > the latest estimate for OK. Ro is the mean number of people that a > COVID19 infected person will infect directly, given all of the factors, > including social distancing, use of PPE and disinfection, etc. in place for > the person. If the exponent is 1.33 then R1 is 1.78, and r6 (Kevin Bacon) > is over 7. > > <Political Rant Alert> > > So when one "average" person in Tulsa contracts COVID19, in 7 "gestation > periods" (average 2-4 days?) 7 people will have contracted it for an R6 of > 7. However, if that "average" person goes to a Trump Rally on day1 and > chooses not to wear a mask (even if they do normally) then their Ro goes up > significantly. If they *also* shout "lock her up!" or "build the wall!" > or "4 more years!" "MAGAAAAaaa!" alternatively into the faces of the > people beside them (gotta pack every seat, can't look like a wuss!) and > over the shoulders of 3 or 4 in the row below them, then Ro jumps by 4 or 6 > and then if they keep shouting and embracing and chest-bumping on the way > out to the parking lot, you might add another 5 or 10 or 20. But "no > problem", that is just one night of glory... maybe the 10 or 100 or 1000 > people infected and attending *only* "super-spread" to 10x or 20x (there > were only 6.xK so that caps it!) ... but wait! Do you (and all those you > infect) go home and go back to Ro==1.33 behaviour, or are you all jacked up > on Trump Fever and decide you will liberate yourself from that damned mask, > and all that wussy "social distancing"? So now your Ro is >1.33... > conservatively those infected while wearing their red hat too tight might > slip by with an Ro of 2.0.... and since you are too proud to spend time > with LIbtards and Wussy Dems ro^=2 becomes an R6 of 64. Sounds like the > perfect formula for a super-spreading event. I'm guessing my estimates > here are overdone or we will *patently* see a Trump-Spike from Tulsa (do > we even know how many attendees were from OK?). > > I understand that Trump2020 app records when it encounters a bluetooth > beacon > <https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/06/21/1004228/trumps-data-hungry-invasive-app-is-a-voter-surveillance-tool-of-extraordinary-scope/> > (ostensibly only in Trump2020 yard signs?), maybe a white-hat hacker can > hijack it to do peer-to-peer contact tracing to *demonstrate* this > KevinBaconCovid19 effect? Or maybe the TikTokkers have already hacked > Trump2020App and are running around making Brad Parscale entirely > misunderstand his demographic... nothing like a little false-confidence > to FFfff up a campaign (eh DNC 2016)? > > Of course, I could probably tell a similar story about BLM protestors > (maybe even in Tulsa?) but oddly most of them seem to be happy to wear > masks and maintain some distance, even if they are shouting "I can't > Breathe!" and "Say their names!" or "No Trump! No KKK! No fascist USA!" > at the top of their lungs, They might just be *doubling* their Ro to 2.7 > and when they go home, they may well return to Ro=1.33 or better? > > Did anyone else watch the Series "Watchmen" last year (I'm re-watching it > right now)... Way too much premonition! Feeds the conspiracy that COVID19 > and BLM protests are all a "Hollywood Elite" hoax. "Robert Redford, > President for Life!" > > - Steve > Search Results > Web resul > On 6/28/20 4:08 PM, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote: > > I changed the name of this thread. Having my name appear as a subject was > beginning to make me feel like I died, or something. > > > > N > > > > Nicholas Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology > > Clark University > > thompnicks...@gmail.com > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > > > *From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> <friam-boun...@redfish.com> *On > Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly > *Sent:* Sunday, June 28, 2020 3:48 PM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group > <friam@redfish.com> <friam@redfish.com> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Nick Thompson > > > > By the way, I just had a Zoom reunion with my fellow graduate students > from Carnegie Mellon from the years 1967-1973 more or less. I had > forgotten that one of them had Covid-19. Stu Card wrote a book with Allen > Newell on human-computer interaction in which they develop a model of the > human user. Stu has recovered despite having an "underlying condition". > > > > Frank > > > > On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 3:12 PM Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com> > wrote: > > They did not but I'm sure it's far smaller than 1/3. > > > > On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 2:08 PM Gary Schiltz <g...@naturesvisualarts.com> > wrote: > > Interesting. I didn't see the show, but might watch it on their web site. > Did they mention what proportion of white Americans know someone who has > had Covid-19? > > > > On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 9:47 AM Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com> > wrote: > > One third of all black Americans know a person who has had Covid-19. So > says CBS Sunday Morning. > > > > Frank > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++%0D%0A++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g> > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++%0D%0A++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g> > > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > > > On Sun, Jun 28, 2020, 4:18 AM David Eric Smith <desm...@santafe.edu> > wrote: > > I believe my brother has had it. > > > > When he is well enough to move around and not infect anybody else he > intends to go get tested for antibodies. Maybe another week. > > > > Said it was one of the three worst illnesses of his life so far, though it > looks like mostly extreme fatigue and lassitude; not evident trouble > breathing. And he is 7 years younger than I am. > > > > Eric > > > > > > On Jun 28, 2020, at 1:23 AM, <thompnicks...@gmail.com> < > thompnicks...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > > David, > > > > nthomp...@clarku.edu works just fine or thompnicks...@gmail.com . > > > > I am really, REALLY sorry but I don't think we should meet. I just told > my "pod" that I think that, with the rising cases in neighboring states, > Santa Fe has started to get more dangerous again, and that we should we > should be even more careful than we have been. (Rural Western Massachusetts > got a lot of cases from "vacationing" New Yorkers in March.) With talk of > a vaccine by the beginning of next year, it just seems stupid to take any > risks whatsoever. > > > > It's not that long. In the meantime, let's continue to interact > electronically. We could do our own zoom session. You will point out how > "notional" the hazard is, and I will have to admit that I actually have no > first-hand experience with the disease, what-so-ever. I don't even know > anybody, personally, who has told me that they *know anybody* who has had > the disease. It is still, for me, a media event. A cultural meme. Pray > God it remains that way. > > > > So let's plan to meet "on the other side.". > > > > You take care! > > > > Nick > > Nicholas Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology > > Clark University > > thompnicks...@gmail.com > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,-pCBQAFqcrtIdWF_G2unIMdEIyxbk9ZKmcwsOxETxJjE11XZzzqAv0Ro6JftHecKItimIK0AxbipIn8IGm6WKzh4jdw9Ylo_3GMfBmVeWAG0Y-jh&typo=1> > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> On Behalf Of Prof David West > Sent: Saturday, June 27, 2020 8:10 AM > To: friam@redfish.com > Subject: [FRIAM] Nick Thompson > > > > Nick, > > > > Your Earthlink email address (the only other one I have) bounced. I am in > Santa Fe for a couple of days, until July 2. > > > > davew > > > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe > http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,_WCK_VaE5Bma6lIB3frrFGy5oXyLg_188Oguj30tAtd8gn1wgR-nbedjRkk92sM-oAKoZOpf6ysSxGohhsVZSBY4yMp5c0GPv-ER_HJkk9DhPAEz&typo=1> > > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,Dfsui-WOofa7dl98fmO9eVXNmzvfWlkppOA_phcN1nzqNhL1dm-koJbmsjxTsvy6XpVbBgJkzmRuwp81wKZVqBV3WuypJA5Rx5aaB98sVgUJ4G6t&typo=1> > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,b1ifu1dfNYDR7edhtbv5q7dQotyLcdyFOVkTFuiSO8I8NwO-hhFO89F2kq-ArLVOKJzASq5XA9Frk8oYbfg_JK8gdM5DHCnE3fDPl9He7etEByU,&typo=1 > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,5rTA2JbqESRgNgVSLse_88usM0AVTfpYGS9vP8ByVqizwyrqdrVYBKGIbDPd6gzX2SD5-8IegE9gEE_ffIpKdqW_PFpngUjbXiHkD4GJYUXUktfdbA,,&typo=1 > > > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > > > > -- > > Frank Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz > <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz+%0D%0A++++++++++++++++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g> > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz+%0D%0A++++++++++++++++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g> > 505 670-9918 > > > > > -- > > Frank Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz > <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz+%0D%0A++++++++++++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g> > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz+%0D%0A++++++++++++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g> > 505 670-9918 > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe <http://bit.ly/virtualfriamun/subscribe> > http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > -- George Duncan Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University georgeduncanart.com See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram Land: (505) 983-6895 Mobile: (505) 469-4671 My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and luminous chaos. "Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may then be a valuable delusion." >From "Notes to myself on beginning a painting" by Richard Diebenkorn. "It's that knife-edge of uncertainty where we come alive to our truest power." Joanna Macy.
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