Re: [FRIAM] Covid graph - YACovidGraph

Thu, 23 Jul 2020 22:47:18 -0700

From the Johns Hopkins data, comparing US to EU on a per capita basis, 7 day moving avg.

I'm not sure I would say the US is levelling off just yet.  
But certainly not seeing anything like the spike in confirmed cases (yet, anyway)

And the US is doing 10 times (!) worse than the EU, on a daily per capita mortality basis.
(ignore the big blue spike in either direction, I think Spain moved a bunch of deaths from 1 week to the next.)

I also show a similar graph for several states below, again adjusted by population.

Some states definitely showing a spike on mortality.  Simpsons Paradox, or just an averaging effect?



-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid graph
From: <thompnicks...@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, July 23, 2020 2:09 pm
To: "'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group'"
<friam@redfish.com>

Isn’t the case that if the disease kills the most vulnerable people first and is stopped (Italy) then we will see a high death rate.  But if the disease kills the most vulnerable people first and is not stopped, (US) then the death rate will fall as the “most vulnerable” are both eliminated and more assiduously protected.  Am I missing a point, here?
 
N
 
Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
thompnicks...@gmail.com
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
 
 
From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> On Behalf Of Eric Charles
Sent: Thursday, July 23, 2020 1:28 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid graph
 
But compare across the three counties. 
 
Italy leads us to believe it is a simple lag between cases and deaths... 
 
but the US and Sweden don't go with that at all.  And adding more countries doesn't significantly help that confusion.  
 
On Thu, Jul 23, 2020, 3:07 PM Barry MacKichan <barry.mackic...@mackichan.com> wrote:
The deaths curve follows the cases curve (with different scale and time lag) pretty well until about two weeks ago. I think the age distribution started before that. It is possible, I guess, if the age went down around Memorial Day, and the time lag is just so, this could be the age distribution showing, but I would have expected it to show up earlier. We’ll see in a few weeks, and we may know if there were snafus in the reporting process.
—Barry
On 23 Jul 2020, at 12:26, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
B.
 
But I thought that everybody agreed that the age distribution IS changing. 
 
N
 
Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
 
 
From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> On Behalf Of Barry MacKichan
Sent: Thursday, July 23, 2020 9:40 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid graph
 
The method for reporting Covid data changed, and public health people were predicting that it increased the burden for already overburdened hospitals. Is that possibly an explanation for the leveling off? If not, what would cause deaths to level off while cases (and hospitalizations as seen in the Atlantic article (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/second-coronavirus-death-surge/614122/) continue to rise? I doubt that the age distribution would be changing suddenly, or that the treatments are suddenly better than two weeks ago.
—Barry
On 22 Jul 2020, at 21:24, Eric Charles wrote:
but the associated uptick in deaths is already leveling off after starting two weeks ago
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