Dave sed: > Neither you, nor 99% of the populace, will be willing to travel via > fully automated airplane, for three reasons: 1) inability to > write/produce 100% correct software; 2) pilots are in the cockpit > (nice sexist name) for those 1 in a million events that are completely > unpredictable (Scully landing in the Hudson); and 3) airlines will > have blanket immunity from liability and therefore absent any degree > of trust.
From the few airline pilots I know, I do believe most cockpit crews are all but fully redundant to the automated systems, and few of them are Sullenberger-good or Sullenberger-lucky enough to make a difference in the increasingly obscure and esoteric "edge cases". Sure, a "handsome/beautiful competent-looking" cockpit-crew might give us yet more confidence that we are not "all gonna die!" but I think they have gone beyond redundant in many cases. Rail (especially sub/elevated city) are already effectively pilotless/driverless.... once 18 wheelers go driverless, buses will follow and airlines won't be far behind (IMO). Humans trust things they "shouldn't" all the time. Few if any airliners (I believe) are not fully fly-by-wire... even mechanically coupled systems of that scale are still *hydraulic*. The 777 has a hydro-mechanical backup which surely pilots are "fully trained on", but I'm not sure how many could actually keep their plane in the air (or land?) under extreme conditions without the myriad aids that come with digital stabilization, etc. As per my ramble on learning "programming" (logic?) from the innards of pinball machines, I acknowledge that hydraulic-mechanical systems are a little easier to apprehend by-inspection than those with electronic (and more to the point digital-electronic) components. From my (vintage/homebuilt) airplane enthusiast days I also acknowledge that a feature (most) everyone designs-for and seeks is "fail-safe" modes where any active component which might fail, has a more robust fail-state that leaves any pilot *auto or human* some yet-more-predictable-albeit-constrained-options than not. From my '49 Luscombe days with a stall-speed of 45mph, I fully agree with Frank's claim "the landing is the best part of the whole flight!", an not just because you suddenly feel "safer", though that is a part of it. It is one of the more acutely technical moments... trying to arrange to "stall" just as your wheels are getting good traction, and yet more "fun" when you add gusty crosswinds. Liftoff is entirely different, but attaining enough altitude to feel your reaction time will allow you to cope with "surprises" is another inflection point. Flagstaff airport had a bank of 100' tall ponderosas a hundred yards or more beyond the runway... and while it was never close, I always felt I was going to drag my gear in their tops as I reached that point. Los Alamos is just the opposite... just past the runway, the canyon edge takes you from 100' altitude to 1000' in seconds, a breathtaking feeling when coupled with up/down-drafts! Whether we believe in epiphenomena (other thread) or not, "epi-systems" are rampant in complex engineering like airplane control systems. Trim tabs on rudder, stabilizer, aileron, are prime examples. I suppose that the term "epiphenomenon" is yet another name for our ignorance and the approach vector we are on toward it's resolution. I wonder if the way our naive attempts to shave off our ignorance with layered ephiphenomenal models and our more sophisticated attempts to shave off uncertainty/risk in our engineered systems are not an example of Guerin's dual-field/bidirectional flood-fill in conceptual space? > RE: COVID ending by June. The only reason it did not happen is a > */liberal, anti-Trump, conspiracy/* to suppress the, at last count 30, > drugs/treatments/aerosols/etc. that would ameliorate the effects (for > all except those with significant co-morbidity factors) and or > dramatically decrease the risk of infection getting a toehold. *:) :)* It's not too late to stock up on aquarium grade hydroxychloroquine... it will probably come in handy for the rampant post-apocalyptic malarial (and other mosquito-borne) plagues that will come with the global warming we don't believe in, bringing equatorial conditions to a much wider band of (previously) habitable land. Canada will build a wall to keep us in our own S*hole country stewing in our own juices (and make us pay for it). I'm on my way for my semi-daily swim at a chlorinated pool where I feel mildly more safe from the next lane-swimmer's exhalations, knowing that the air above the surface is enriched with chlorinated water droplets and any COVID containing sputum they may be flinging during their frantic swimming is landing on the surface of chlorinated water. Maybe Donald was right... we should "look into injecting disinfectants into our bodies" or at least surrounding ourselves with it. Maybe resort-style dining in shallow pools will be in vogue? For TJ re: forged-in-fire... unlike *most* blacksmiths I know of, I'm not terribly interested in edged weaponry. It does represent a historical driver for highly technical blacksmithing and the results are in high demand (gun/knife/sword nuts and SCA types) and damascened steel IS very beautiful, but I'm generally more interested in more mundane/utilitarian objects. I honestly don't expect or intend to *ever* use a well made knife/sword/battle-axe for it's designed intent (similar to an automatic weapon in that regard). The most magical thing I know of, however, is bringing two matched/shaped pieces of white-hot steel together and watching them magically "become one" with a single blow (forge-welding). A little grinding usually reveals whether the weld is "complete". Tig/Mig/Gas welding always involves a state change to liquid and back to solid to achieve the same thing. The forge-weld is fascinating in that the surfaces (to some depth) of both pieces are in some ambiguous transition state between liquid and solid for the duration of the compression wave going through the materials from the smith's hammer... I should probably look more into the physics behind it, but for now it is pretty much just "magic"! To add to the mystery, there is also an interesting "tang" in the air I feel like I smell when steel is at that precise point and is struck (shaping OR welding)... it is at least part, the same odor as blood ... free iron molecules or iron oxides? - Steve > > davew > > > On Thu, Aug 13, 2020, at 12:00 PM, Steve Smith wrote: >> >> I actually knew someone who lived near the Embry-Riddle location in >> 2000/2001 where several of the 9/11 pilots learned to fly well enough >> to do what they did. She had friends (go figure) who worked at a >> strip-club who claimed these "boys" were regulars there. It was >> pretty creepy 2nd order connection. >> >> My uncles were both pilots in WWII but the older was trained up on >> the newfangled idea of a helicopter and proceeded to become a test >> pilot for Sykorski. He was forced into retirement (chief test pilot) >> to a desk at 65. Nobody wanted to ground him, but "rules is rules" >> and in fact his health degraded acutely and abruptly and he died just >> a few years later. His family insists it was from "heartbreak" from >> being grounded. >> >> I have a "young" friend (now 40s) who was just finishing up his >> commercial certification at Embry-Riddle Prescott on 9/11 and claims >> that the bottom not only dropped out for commercial pilots for the >> next couple of years, but has "never recovered" and he has been >> making a living as a bartender ever since. Perhaps it is time for >> him to revisit. >> >> My ex brother-in-law left his career in the Air Force to become "a >> bus driver" and recently was retired (for age) from Delta. Even 30 >> years ago things were incredibly automated. I see no reason that >> airliners won't be entirely automated and teleoperated in the next 20 >> years. The risk-profile of such things is evolving as self-driving >> cars (and more aptly? Semi-tractors?) emerge. >> >> The hyperloop game is going to change long distance rapid-transit >> eventually. I don't believe anyone is planning for underground >> "ballistic-trajectory-velocities" quite yet, but mag-lev-centered, >> evacuated tube, zero-grade velocities could still be pretty >> impressive, and energy consumption as well with magnetic >> (regenerative) braking. The earliest days of railroading involved >> gravity-trains often with empty return cars being towed by animal >> power. Yet others used water from the high-side source as "ballast" >> and if the up/down routes were mechanically coupled, the extra weight >> of water plus load would allow the empties to be returned "for free". >> >> Regarding Dave's friend's drug conviction, Denzel Washington's (one >> of a series of flawed) character in the movie Flight is a drug-addled >> pilot who, by implication in the story, actually achieves a heroic >> manouver *because* he's still jacked on the cocaine he snorted to >> lift himself out of his alcohol hangover. The setup is that a >> jackscrew controlling horizontal stablizer breaks, forcing the nose >> of the plane down with no recourse... Denzel's character quickly >> recognizes the futility of the situation and the *opportunity* of >> rolling the dive into an inverted orientation such that the forced >> "nose down" is now "nose up". >> >> Popular Mechanics (of all places) had an article on the plausibility >> of the Cocaine effects supporting the story (rather than the >> mechanics of inverted flying). >> >> I suspect I could get work myself using my 40 year-stale FortranIV >> experience on "mission critical" systems already old at that time, >> but still in some sort of service. I did a huge senior project on a >> FortranIV system for simulating exo-Terran atmospheres (e.g. Mars) >> which might well be still be in service? Fortunately my COBOL/RPG >> experience is so slim I'd never be tempted to try that domain. >> >> I'd like to believe that the myriad "stale skill" job opportunities >> (demands) we see today are going to be yet-more-fully deprecated. I >> still have a coal-fired forge and an anvil, both probably >> manufactured 100 years ago, that I can shape and even temper iron and >> steel with (and aluminum if I'm incredibly careful), but I do not and >> never will have the skills required to do it well, and certainly not >> to replace what modern industrial processes can achieve... barring a >> full apocalypse, it is merely a quaint "hobby" that might afford me >> the opportunity to turn out some rustic items others would mistake >> for "art", or more often, repair the various related tools I might >> *use*in my forge... though in most cases a strap and some bolts or >> rivets makes more sense than trying to re-weld a broken connecting >> rod, or lever. >> >> Meanwhile, the discussion of how our "first programming language" >> defines us, I believe that my earliest "programming" experience was >> more "analysis" of the circuitry of pinball (and vending) machines in >> my friend's father's workshop where he repaired them, and there were >> always an array of pinball machines in various states of repair, with >> all the guts open for inspection while operating. Very much an >> analog/digital hybrid system while the older vending machines were >> essentially all "rod logic" (albeit simple). Later, at my first >> employer (radio station) I learned the ins and outs of automated >> infinite loop carousel "programming" which was a hybrid of relay and >> mechanical (rod/gear/lever) logics. The "programming" was really >> simplistic, involving inserting "shorting pins" in matrices to define >> priorities and timing to get the "right" mix of commercials, PSAs, >> and a diversity of music played during any given period (usually a 4 >> hour shift). I can't say how much it influenced my later >> understanding of "computer programming" which I was being introduced >> to simultaneously by our Driver's Ed teacher who had somehow wrangled >> a PDP-x rack into a small room with a teletype/paper-tape-punch. He >> didn't really have a clue, he was learning BASIC along with us, >> following a simple set of "sample programs" listed in what I think >> was the "owners manual" for the machine. >> >> Ramble, >> >> - Steve >> >>> Does it include lessons on how to land the plane? >>> >>> —Barry >>> >>> On 12 Aug 2020, at 21:53, Frank Wimberly wrote: >>> >>> I just got an email from a flight training program offering me a >>> nine month >>> course to get a multi engine commercial license. They don't read >>> the Friam >>> listsrv, I hope. I'm too old in any case. >>> >>> --- >>> Frank C. 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