I was just looking back for a previous conversation about herd immunity and came across what seems to be an accurate prediction from Steve Smith.
My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this: What if the Blue > States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the battle in a few > states like high-density, early onset new york/new jersey, and reduce > deaths (including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but > also reduce herd-immunity. And the Red States limit their mitigation, take > a huge hit in infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense > states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity. I can > imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had > a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States > early on, then later vice-versa? > Cody Smith On Sat, Apr 4, 2020 at 3:46 PM Steven A Smith <[email protected]> wrote: > I'm sure many have seen this... if not scroll to the bottom for the JS > model (you can download/inspect/modify the code if you like)... It > doesn't stop at SIR but adds H(ospitalization) and D(eath)... and is > parameterized with sliders. > > > https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html > <https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html> > > And the JS (warning,huge with lots of device/browser-specific cruft): > > > https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js > <https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js> > > I don't feel comfortable having a strong opinion about this beyond echoing > what THIS article says about the risk of quick mitigation followed by > return-to-normal *without* establishing significant herd-immunity. This > author refers to it as "hiding infections in the future" and makes a good > point about staving off infection too well for too long and getting hit > hard next "cold and flu" season IF we haven't established good treatment, > increased health care capacity, and/or effective vaccines. > > > https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b > <https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b> > > For better or worse, other countries are trying different mixtures and > styles of mitigation and have different levels of health-care capacity and > ability to location-track and shut down mobility. > > While many criticize (or defend) the lax or laggy response of many Red > States, this provides yet another diversity/ensemble study for the ultimate > "model" of all... in this case, the territory IS the territory, the > population IS one big fat analog computer for calculating the pandemic (the > answer to which, is naturally 42). > > Of course, "scofflaw" communities like the spring-break youth, the > evangelical churches, and states like Georgia with governers who say "we > didn't know that people without symptoms could be infectious until 24 hours > ago!" represent a reservoir for exposure if they continue to mix, but might > end up being a source of virus resistant. > > > https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/04/coronavirus-state-social-distancing-policy/ > > > https://faculty.washington.edu/cadolph/papers/AABFW2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR09JwtQzEkerOGiRXxaiptbyDqGZZ7_7Ullg7UX9qtVDFWumdKZGF8WOzY > > > My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this: What if the > Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the battle in a few > states like high-density, early onset new york/new jersey, and reduce > deaths (including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but > also reduce herd-immunity. And the Red States limit their mitigation, take > a huge hit in infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense > states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity. I can > imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had > a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States > early on, then later vice-versa? Seems like the ongoing extraction > economy in (mostly Red States) is pretty social-distancy while the more > service economy of Blue States is at risk... though professional and even > office work is nominally quite easily social-disanced. > > Mumble, > > - Steve > > > ..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- .. > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >
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