Maybe I missed something, but what prompted you to dig up a 16 month old comment from Marcus to respond to?
On Sun, Sep 12, 2021 at 3:29 PM Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com> wrote: > Pollyanna! (ironic) > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g> > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g> > > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > On Sat, May 16, 2020, 10:32 AM Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com> > wrote: > >> Here’s what I expect will probably happen. The PANDEMIC will be >> declared over, like Mission Accomplished with W. There will be a slower >> burn until fall, and then it will accelerate again. But people will be >> acclimate to the death rate, like they acclimate to gun violence. >> Unemployment and homelessness will soar and be persistent. Suicides will >> go up, and be normalized. Meanwhile, people with the means will >> self-isolate and be the first to get access to antiviral treatments. Out >> in the blood and muck, herd immunity will begin to emerge in at risk >> populations. The U.S. will continue to have high prevalence compared to >> other countries. History will look back on this as a Chernobyl moment, >> where the prestige of the United States fell to Asia. And a second term >> of Trump will ensure it. >> >> >> >> *From: *Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf of Prof David West < >> profw...@fastmail.fm> >> *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < >> friam@redfish.com> >> *Date: *Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 8:25 AM >> *To: *"friam@redfish.com" <friam@redfish.com> >> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic >> >> >> >> Steve, >> >> >> >> Yes the subject line is click-bait. In the body of the message I made a >> distinction between the disease pandemic and the perceived PANDEMIC. The >> latter will go away whether or not the disease does. >> >> >> >> The metrics for the latter would include increased traffic to websites >> like the Mathematica Individual COVID Risk calculator and less to WHO, CDC, >> and other overall statistical sites; a noticeable shift from personal >> interest stories about succuming to COVID to ones about succumbing to >> economic hardship; gaming floors in Las Vegas casinos opening with lots of >> assurance that gamblers are at no greater risk than when visiting a grocery >> store; stories about death rates moving from the front page to the second >> page or section; significant increase in lawsuits against restrictions with >> quick, probably out of court, capitulation by governor's; and the central >> theme of stories about the pandemic, what the science tells, us, >> whistleblowers, etc will be almost purely political in nature. >> >> >> >> Going beyond mid-June, I would predict that you will see "wave crests" in >> terms of cases and deaths, but not "spikes." They will be big enough for >> the "experts" to claim they are right, but not big enough to trigger any >> socio-economic response and most people will regard any reporting of same >> with cynicism. Any attempt to reimpose lock-downs would likely result in >> furious resistance and widespread civil disobedience. >> >> >> >> davew >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> On Tue, May 12, 2020, at 7:13 PM, Steven A Smith wrote: >> >> Dave - >> >> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020. >> >> Ignoring the "bait" that I (and others) took earlier, I'll try to respond >> to the singular prediction above: >> >> >> >> What means "end"? What is a specific statistic that you believe to >> indicate that the pandemic has ended? >> >> From Wikipedia: >> >> A *pandemic* (from Greek <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Greek> >> πᾶν, *pan*, "all" and δῆμος, *demos*, "people") is an epidemic >> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic> of disease >> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease> that has spread across a large >> region, for instance multiple continents >> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continents> or worldwide, affecting a >> substantial number of people. A widespread endemic >> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)> disease with a >> stable number of infected people is not a pandemic. Widespread endemic >> diseases with a stable number of infected people such as recurrences of >> seasonal >> influenza <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_influenza> are >> generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the >> globe rather than being spread worldwide. >> >> The WHO published THIS description of phases of a pandemic: >> >> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/ >> >> [image: Image removed by sender.] >> >> *In the **post-pandemic** period, influenza disease activity will have >> returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected >> that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At >> this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic >> preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery >> and evaluation may be required.* >> >> >> >> Or maybe some other (measurable) definition? >> >> - Steve >> >> >> >> .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... >> .... . ... >> >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> >> unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> >> >> >> >> -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . >> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >
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