Yes, Prof.John Mearsheimer is very insightful and balanced with a deep sense of history. His Great Delusion lecture is also entertaining https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZVIaXFN2lU
In addition to the view from Europe, you may also be interested in the view from India https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzgPJeYZaOU Sarbajit On Sun, Mar 6, 2022 at 4:45 PM David Eric Smith <desm...@santafe.edu> wrote: > Let me post this link, without commentary: > > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 > > I can listen to it in at least three quite different frames, and it sounds > starkly different in each from the others. All three carry information. > > Eric > > > > On Mar 6, 2022, at 12:36 AM, Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com> wrote: > > For now, convoys coming out of Poland or other countries can try to > disguise arms as humanitarian relief. > > One could imagine that Javelins could be hidden in small trucks. It gets > harder to disguise a MiG-29. > > > > But there’s no plausible deniability here about Javelins and other weapons > intended for Ukraine. The stated intent of NATO and the US is to enable > Ukrainian armed forces to kill Russian soldiers. At some point, probably > relatively soon, it won’t be possible to smuggle large volumes of advanced > weapons into Ukraine. Then what? Wait for Putin to knock on the door > of a NATO country? He’ll say, “but I have tactical nuclear weapons”, what > are you going to do? [1] > > > > Another option is to declare that convoys to and from Ukraine will get > NATO escorts. Then it is on the Russians to escalate: Don’t you dare > shoot at us. > > I don’t see any way that Putin can be allowed to come out of this. His > military needs to be degraded. It can happen now, or it can happen later. > If it happens later there are going to be a lot of dead Ukrainians. At > this point I wouldn’t be surprised if he wants it to be a radioactive DMZ. > > > > Marcus > > > > [1] > https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/escalate-deescalate-part-russias-nuclear-toolbox > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.russiamatters.org%2fanalysis%2fescalate-deescalate-part-russias-nuclear-toolbox&c=E,1,PxWKDAmEoCIFSYileKZ5Sl9TW55ijLhqOp3ppYEp5U2pBhO5IAHRRSyTY7RylHvaERWm82duXhMhQhaD0SLBMGVCvRZiCrzw1d6RvR-98CM-P2sFkHr5Ew,,&typo=1> > > > > *From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Steve Smith > *Sent:* Saturday, March 5, 2022 8:09 PM > *To:* friam@redfish.com > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] what's the view from Europe? > > > > > > On 3/4/22 8:29 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > > https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1499440540290584583 > > I started watching this guy (Beau of the Fifth Column) semi-regularly > months ago even though his affect triggers a lot of my attempts to ignore > my own redneck roots. I don't think I've mentioned him before... I half > expect Glen is already clued in to him. It is hard to see/hear him without > expecting to hear the Trump Train tooting in the background, but he's quite > the opposite. Scary relevant/clued in/clear IMO. > > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPzQ1DyGZHs > > This "episode" felt like a powerful smack-down of those > (politicians/pundits?) who are rattling "no fly" sabers. To summarize, my > takeaway was "if you think you can establish a no-fly zone in Ukraine, it > would be yonks better to keep your powder dry and do a first strike because > a no-fly *will* be Putin's pretext, even though he'll likely find another > anyway". > > In personal anecdote space, Mary's nephew in Madison WI hosted a young > woman from Ukraine as an exchange student a few years ago. They did a > GoFundme to raise the cash to do everything they could to get her out. She > was hunkered down 80 miles East of Kyiv on a farm she was interning > (organic farming) on... all the women and children evacuated fairly early > on but they didn't have room for all so she and another young woman stayed > behind. In the last two days, she worked her way from there to Lviv (<50 > miles from Poland) and hopes to make it to the border where the current > time just standing in line to be processed is order 20 hours (according to > her) though Poland has no document requirements... if you show up at the > border and you are not a military age (16-60?) age male they take your name > and try to help you figure out what to do next I guess. The nephew and > wife who are expecting their second child any day now are trying to get her > here to their rural homestead to live indefinitely. Otherwise (imminent > birth) her nephew would be in Poland to meet her. > > My Ukrainian colleagues are still incommunicado with me, but our mutual > colleagues who have remained engaged (Matt and Janire of 4Pi Productions, > some of you met/knew through SFx... English/Spanish) speak with the > non-Russian of the duo (Yuri) every day or two. They are hyper-focused > capable 40-somethings and at least Yuri will be one of the guys figuring > out how to pry the tracks off of tanks with prosumer drones or something. > > I have one other Ukranian (Karkeiv) contact that I have only had one brief > contact with a couple of days ago. She is a lot less resourceful and in > spite of having power, water, even internet (intermittently) doesn't know > what to do beyond hiding in her basement (apartment building) everytime > there is a air raid warning. She wasn't able to give me enough info in > our brief exchange to know how to even begin to help her personally. > Right now financial aid in general (as per Glen's ideations against > over-focusing on only helping people you know) seems like the "most/least" > we can do. > > My former NREL colleague (now IOHK/Global ala Cardano/Ada) has 12 > colleagues in Ukraine, he only knew of 2 a week ago and a similar or larger > number in Russia) and expects to get more "insider stories" from both > quarters "soon". > > This feels much bigger in my lifetime than 9/11, Iraq/Afghanistan, COVID, > even Trump.... maybe it is the proximity in time, or a lifetime of > cold-war spectre. > > > > > > > > > > .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 //bit.ly/virtualfriam > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2f%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,rY3JIWMIwniaFkoyFdIRY3Cwju24SxHL0-dHgaUXkxFZMJCMW2nEBRWxbogdjoCJ4FZDzshs0_wR5lzGGeaZirYSRJjzk2Ydxq8nD-kDa9D9qXzB&typo=1&ancr_add=1> > > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,aHDjNz-h7FL4LeT88INVGoGivPE-0HbaF0B0cTF8fx9w3okUTLhIHGq9sZQ3iS_gqRPi_lMwHPVQDmA1YGCD3D49nbeXo7s01YSmAgdoVIz1fg,,&typo=1> > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,wE-m4YyqfceJgCzL1Emb2r6uDmObhnkhmjVaWHonEsEMq8h12PP4Vta7PiOs0D5URvTtMrwwL1DwKqsKAKarrtDcjUrx48C4JF-_oEbdZKMLBA,,&typo=1> > > archives: > > 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,XrlMY2He9wvxtkLrVukG-5dob_wJe9D406O7J1anDd8u2xtFb9QjLYF7zkshsk_C6M_hYuA3qjZuOZdGXGHH4bE7AkaKYf0pHcvp10HVDb9mPAaR&typo=1> > > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > > .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2f%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,sEQxbeE32OrQY_P-a_5vs0kAJ_z4xFmVHB1k9vv7xrDxAehIz45rO7gvlhg7EST4fWVmxoN-qnCpBtp994Q1Xtb_9i5U4xgOrfETANpS&typo=1 > un/subscribe > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,huPR1HOb9inCBGMa_Wx3n7r0piIYw5TyRbPJFwk2L6wLyRYwwtObBNdooXJN1Yi7IVPl20TLyIMSRQECqoGCHrJANwda1op86dyEzH7A1I4,&typo=1 > FRIAM-COMIC > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,cQGHPDT0p_sUa7P_BAFDtJBJLxcRjg3ar28q6DPkm6gvGJMjrY8kY4ArtQZc3VN-Fr7VDBuV2jrN1N9gfi8rO6y91VdcZwm_HojfWEPVGZU,&typo=1 > archives: > 5/2017 thru present > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,XpZEBIPNSfPhHI-CFprCtHsDy62nxPJ5VzYra8VpGQLJPmY-OPV9skjZO-5gTPT2oMjFYDndtaKY2GNmR2pvr0PNltFYBhjSSb-dRQ599SyKGhyF&typo=1 > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > > > .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: > 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >
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