Lundberg and Lee proposed to use Shapley values as a general method to explain all kinds of machine learning models. As I understand it this works by varying input values systematically and then observing how much the model output changes. https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.07874v2It is one of the most common methods used today to explain neural networks. Here is a recent paper from researchers at MIT and Microsoft Research about the topic:https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.14403The training set in my case was just an Excel/CSV file where I estimated the feature values myself. This means I have asked myself for reach country and each feature which value would describe the situation best on a scale from -1 to 1.I think it is an interesting approach. Maybe I can improve the data or the model a bit and make a blog post out of it.-J. -------- Original message --------From: Steve Smith <sasm...@swcp.com> Date: 7/15/22 10:29 PM (GMT+01:00) To: friam@redfish.com Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Modeling Fascism for those of us trying to suss out the implications of this, I offer: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shapley_value I'm not clear on a number of things Jochen: The Shapley values implies an iterated/cooperative model? I see how the "training set" from post WWI Europe might be used in this context. How do your assumptions about Trump-era America fit in? Is the assumption that post WWI (hidden) conditions in Europe are similar enough to contemporary Global conditions? I'm probably missing something (a lot)? - Steve On 7/15/22 2:06 PM, Jochen Fromm wrote: Today after work I've tried to built a small and simple machine learning model to predict fascism, based on 6 or 7 fundamental features. Using Shapley values we can see which feature contributes the most to the outbreak of fascism. If I enter values which fit to the US under Trump the model indeed predicts a form of authoritarianism. No big data or deep learning, just a small neural network based on scikit-learn (no Tensorflow, Keras, or Pytorch). Juypter notebook here: https://nbviewer.org/github/JochenFromm/JupyterNotebooks/blob/master/ModelingFascism.ipynb -J. -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom https://bit.ly/virtualfriam to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
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