Steve, thanks for the perspective. It's interesting that the authors of the paper dub the period of 1950-1975 as the "Golden Age" and then go on to point out how badly Latin America has failed to exploit it. I haven't read the paper yet (only your quote from it), but it seems they are defining a golden age globally, not for Latin America. I guess that would be the post-WWII era.
I'll try to break out of these darned bubbles :-) On Fri, Jan 13, 2023 at 12:33 PM Steve Smith <sasm...@swcp.com> wrote: > > Gary - > > Thanks for the on-the-ground response from the "middle of the world". I > realize(d) you (like all of us) live in a bubble and I appreciate your > acknowledging the two impinging bubbles you recognize yourself to be > circumscribed by: 1) retired folk who avoid deep political thought; 2) > locals without the education or experience to see much beyond the local > community. > > In some ways this feels like a template for many of our own bubbles... sort > of a 1) personal/professional/socioeconomic bubble; 2) geolocal bubble . > There are probably more and they may or may not overlap significantly. I > use FriAM to try to force some of my own bubbles to impinge on one another, > or perhaps to explore the interstices between the otherwise natural > impingements... > > I'm not a regular (only dropped in once or twice) vFriam participant, and I > don't know about Merle, I think she may make a better effort than I and could > probably be drawn into making an appearance for a topic *like* this if you > were interested. I'll ping her offline as well to see if she might be > interested/available to vFriAM up on this (or some vaguely related) topic > next week? > > - Steve > > Regarding "the Golden Age of Latin America", I found this (working) paper > which moderately reflects what I think of as "the Golden Age". I think they > acknowledge (and maybe even explain) what you have > experienced/observed/believe about "keeping Latin America dirt poor": > > On the Latin American Growth Paradox: A Hindsight into the Golden Age > Giorgia Barboni∗and Tania Treibich† November 12, 2010 > https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/89360/1/64049434X.pdf > > > In 1950, Latin American countries’ capabilities were promising: however, some > other countries starting at the same level, or even below, made a better use > of their initial endowments. At the time, countries like Argentina and > Venezuela had a higher GDP per capita than other European countries belonging > to the developed world today (Italy, Spain...) and many East Asian countries > that have managed to catch up with the Western World in the last decades (see > Figure 1 below). Indeed, the data on GDP per capita over the last 60 years > reveals that since 1950, Latin American countries have diverged from the > Western World. With a GDP growth rate between 4 and 5 percent, they have > fallen behind Europe which economy has reached a 20,000 dollars per capita > level today. The Latin American countries grew slowly until 1980 and, from > then, their GDP per capita growth has been stationary. The only exception > would be Chile which after a period of slow growth started an expansion > period in 1980s, converging to the highest levels. Asian countries in > comparison followed a convergence path, starting way lower and reaching the > European levels of GDP per capita after fifty years of catching up. Castaldi > et al. (2008(16)) point out that this divergence can also be measured by the > widening productivity gap between Latin America and the international > frontier in the last decades. Other indicators of education and science may > also support the hypothesis that back then, Latin American countries had a > big potential for convergence. Argentina, for example, was thought to be so > promising that it could join the innovators’ club (Castaldi et al., > 2008(16)). Then, what happened during the Golden Age (1950-1975) that > prevented South American countries to exploit this potential for growth? > > Which is naturally just one perspective, but provides the basic idea of what > said "Golden Age" was/is/might-be. > > > On 1/13/23 9:33 AM, Gary Schiltz wrote: > > Despite living here in the middle of the world, I'm afraid I don't > give these ideas enogh serious thought these days. I interact mostly > with people who are retired and avoid deep political thought, and with > locals who don't have the education or experience to see much beyond > the local community. I REALLY MUST make myself make it a priority to > start attending the VFriam meetings on Thursday. It might be valuable. > I wonder, does Merle ever tune in? She seems the most socially > concerned (maybe even hopeful?) person on the list. > > By the way, I wasn't aware that there ever was a "Golden Age of Latin > America". Care to elaborate? My view (shaped perhaps too much by > reading "Confessions of an Economic Hitman" in the early 2000s) is > that Latin America has always been dirt poor, just like the more > developed world wants it to be. First under the thumb of the USA and > USSR/Russia, and now China. No wonder dictators thrive here. > > On Thu, Jan 12, 2023 at 1:31 PM Steve Smith <sasm...@swcp.com> wrote: > > GaryS, et al - > > I was recently trying to make a little more sense of the larger > sociopolitical situation across central/south America and realized that your > location in Ecuador might provide some useful parallax. > > https://www.as-coa.org/articles/2023-elections-latin-america-preview > > I was (not?) surprised to read that there was a renewed interest in "regional > integration". This article references Lula and Obrador and several other > Latin American leaders who might be attempting a broader ideological (and > economic) alignment/cooperation across the region. > > https://www.bloomberglinea.com/english/will-lula-achieve-regional-integration-in-latin-america/ > > With the unrest of the summer triggered? by energy/fossil-fuel prices it > seems like Ecuador has become (temporarily, modestly) unbalanced which seems > like an opportunity for change, whether for better or worse. I see in the > first article (Elections Preview) that Lasso has a very low approval rating > and the upcoming (February) elections might include/yield a recall for him? > > > I lived on the border of AZ/MX as a teen in the early 70s and the recent > memory/residue of the Golden Age of Latin America was still evident. The > Mexican border town (Agua Prieta) still had moderately grand facilities and > institutions (e.g. A huge library with elaborate fountains on the grounds, > etc) even though they were not able to support them in that grandeur... So > I think I still have an ideation that Latin America has many of the resources > or (hidden) momentum to achieve a resurgence of some sort. > > These reflections are partly triggered by this interview/article produced by > WBUR/Boston and distributed via NPR: > > https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2023/01/11/8-billion-earth-population-rise-human > > Which reminded me that while we *do* have a total-population problem with our > 8B and rising numbers (and 90+ % of land animal by mass being human or human > domesticates), the *distribution* of people, and more to the point the > demographic fecundity/fertility distribution is very uneven and in fact seems > to be inversely proportional to various features of human civilization > ranging from GDP to education to technological development. Some (like > DJT) turn this into a judgement and a reason for resentment/fear (e.g. S*hole > country labels) but others have a more progressive view. An excerpt from > the WBUR interview/article: > > Jennifer Sciubba: "We're moving toward this aging and shrinking world, and we > are worried because we can't sustain that same huge level of economic growth > in the past. And we do need to think about what that might look like, so we > can look relook at concepts like retirement. We can look at concepts like > what is work life. We also, though, have to start thinking about family and > marriage. And, you know, we're talking about a paradigmatic shift. > > "That means we have to look at the world through a completely different lens > than we've looked at the world in the past. But all of our theories about the > good life, our economic theories, our political theories, those were all > developed under conditions of population growth and economic growth, as > William said. So it's really hard to get a paradigmatic shift and say, what > if we try to look at the world in a different way? Can we look at an aging > and shrinking society as a good thing? Can we look at growing older > individually as a good thing? We've not been good at that. And so we're kind > of taking that negativity and applying it at the societal level." > > This passage specifically references aging (individual and population) but > there are other references to economic/technological disparities. > > I also defer here to others who have an international POV (e.g. Pieter in > South Africa, Sarbajit in India, Jochen in Germany, and I believe we have > someone from Cuba, I think we lost (off the list) Mohammed from Egypt a few > years ago, etc.) as well. We are not a very demographicly representative > group here but still offer a somewhat broad samplying by some measures. > > I realize this is yet another of my rambly maunderings but I'd be curious to > hear what others are observing/thinking about these issues in this current > time of global flux. > > - Steve > > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . 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