The biggest not-accounted-for cost is human. All those kids in lithium mines earning 12 cents a day.
davew On Thu, Feb 23, 2023, at 3:41 AM, Santafe wrote: > There is a skewness in the various analyses of these things (in the > sense of two lines of non-common direction embedded in enough > dimensions that they never meet) that makes the various claims unusable > unless one will not be lazy. That puts it out of my reach. > > Rees, Seibert, and the others, have their nice 1-page digestable list > of slogans why “It’s all Bullshit!”. There they talk about how > obviously wind and solar power are _Just NOT_ sustainable, because they > are carried to the site by fossil-fuel-powered trucks. And similar > sort of qualitative no-go claims. > > In a brief luxury of house-cleaning following what seemed to be months > of continuous crises, I was catching up on some older reading on > figures of merit for various energy technologies, and got, by various > routes, to the claim that the embodied energy of solar PV is about > 3kWh/Wp, where Wp = “watt produced”. So one is looking at about 3000 > hours before the power delievered is over-and-above replacement. > People estimate that, in calendar time, that translates to values > between 1 and 6 years or so, for a product that should have about a > 20-year lifecycle. Now, that embodied energy estimate came from > somewhere, and the people producing it were probably not oil company > shills. So does it include Bill Rees’s oil-powered truck, or not? > Meaning, does he just throw it all into the dustbin with a wave of > common sense, or is he being lazy and neither following through an > argument nor admitting what would be needed to follow it through, and > estimating how far we are from that. > > Apparently, there are various “Scopes” of power consumption that go > into sustainability reporting law. I won’t remember them properly, but > Scope 1 is something like your own power consumed in manufacturing; > Scope 2 is some measure of power used by others either before or after > (sorry; not time to go find this now), and Scope 3 is the whole > supply-line analysis, prorated for the part you use. I look at Scope > 3, and it looks like hard accounting to do, but I don’t know if that > means it is a pipe dream, or if usable approximations are available for > certain domains. (U. Exeter I think tries to contribute such data, or > collaborate with companies that do.) > > The recursion, which is a tree, seems easy enough to visualize (as in a > SFe bumper sticker). If you don’t like the oil-powered truck, replace > it with a non-oil-powered truck. What is the embodied energy of the > replacement, prorated over all the things it will haul, and what is the > operating energy cost of this task. And then so on for the factory > that builds the truck, the mining machinery that extracts any new ores, > or the recycling plant that salvages retired materials, etc. When > people estimate embodied energy costs for this or that technology, are > they putting in some defensible estimate or placeholder for this > recursion, or not? Seems like a simple enough question to ask. But I > spend time in conversations with people who do this (not a _ton_ of > time, but a little), and I don’t know the answer. > > I understand, also (since it is obvious), that just an energy > accounting is only a baseline for constraint. There is then the much > harder and more detailed accounting of whether you have a process for > each step. So, for example: There’s a minimum chemical free energy > cost to separate the rare earth dopants from silicon to recycle a > retired solar cell, which will need to become the process once the > high-grade ores are not available, but do you have a process that > performs that extraction and purification? Stuff like that. That > becomes all the labor-intensive “industrial ecology” research (I think > they call it) to try to turn some of the sloganeering into usable > inputs for a designer. > > Thanks Steve for forwarding the LtG plots. I read that one too. They > are trying to bypass the detailed industrial ecology, and hope that > within some number of orders of magnitude, they can do something like a > conserved-quantity bound on what is possible by any process. The > economists have, since the original came out, tried to dismiss that > line of reasoning (again with a hand-wave), by claiming that one > doesn’t know about conservation laws between rates and quantities, and > since LtG hasn’t accounted for “human innovation”, they can safely be > ignored. Of course, I understand that that argument is not only pretty > sure to be wrong (and provably wrong for a few simple cases where I > know how to calculate), but also made in either bad faith or laziness. > But the question it begs is: what can we prove is unreachable by any > level of innovation, for the same reasons perpetual motion machines are > impossible? Those rate/state no-go theorems are a lot harder to prove. > > > Eric > >> On Feb 22, 2023, at 6:16 PM, Russell Standish <li...@hpcoders.com.au> wrote: >> >> I did a calculation based on a steady growth rate followed by >> extinction and anthropic reasoning (aka as the "doomsday argument"), >> and came up with a 50% chance of population collapse by 2100. This was >> based on 2005 population figures. See appendix B of my book "Theory of >> Nothing". I haven't bothered publishing that study elsewhere. >> >> Of course - the steady growth rate assumption is extreme. We know that >> the population growth rate is decreasing, with the inflection point a >> couple of decades ago. On current demographics, the earth's population >> will peak around 2070, and then go into a bit of decline, with some >> countries such as China going into reverse considerably sooner (eg I >> believe 2030s is the current prediction for China to start having a >> declining population). >> >> Natural population decline due to declining fertility is much >> preferable to a hard extinction extinction, of course, particular on a >> century timescale. So we should live with the fact that we may not >> have any grandchildren/great grandchildren whatever your stage of life >> is. I'm already comfortable with that - I doubt I'll have any >> grandchildren :). >> >> >> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 03:10:45PM -0700, Gillian Densmore wrote: >>> WTF, how are they coming up with these numbers? I know it sucks a whales >>> ****** >>> these days to make friends. Much less a GF (or BF). But something aint >>> adding >>> up here. Did they ask both people in the relationship? >>> >>> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 3:04 PM Steve Smith <sasm...@swcp.com> wrote: >>> >>> >>> In a very limited and somewhat ad-hoc (latin hypercube of 10 samples of 5 >>> variables) ensemble study (100,000 samples) I did with an NREL colleague >>> in >>> 2019 using the World3 Model we found a very ad-hoc observation that >>> among >>> the various ideas of what was a "good outcome" in 2100 (like GDP/person >>> or >>> other vernacular ideas of "quality of life") that virtually *all* of them >>> involved a sooner-rather-than-later population collapse. >>> >>> To the extent that Modeling (in general), SD modeling more particularly >>> and >>> the World3 model in particular I wasn't very inclined to take the >>> quantitative results of any of very seriously but it was an interesting >>> (but unsurprising) qualitative result? >>> >>> For anyone interested in an interactive web implementation to dork with >>> yourself: >>> >>> >>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2finsightmaker.com%2finsight%2f2pCL5ePy8wWgr4SN8BQ4DD%2f&c=E,1,waM3Y4hIAP7DIilGuyQdtxHgvgZuOYCBMUFaMVDvHa1Cocq8htqFiVTp_wL46S7NKnkFroo4JEO946Xjf2hZw6ERqbDNWbSrT2zf5GFR&typo=1 >>> The-World3-Model-Classic-World-Simulation >>> >>> FWIW I dorked around with it in honor of Jimmy Carter's recent admission >>> to >>> a hospice program... looking at what it might have meant if we'd followed >>> his lead back around 1978. Worth noting, I (foolishly by hindsight) >>> helped run him out of town to be replaced with Ronnie Raygun ... "drill >>> baby drill, burn baby burn!" >>> >>> And an excerpt from a recent (2020) update synopsis of the Limits to >>> Growth >>> project/idea/model/results: >>> >>> >>> [cid] >>> >>> Worth noting: The population drops in BAU/BAU2 (Biznezz as Usual) >>> represent increased death rates rather than reduced fertility rates. >>> >>> The bigger (or smaller by another measure) question of what decisions >>> anyone of us might make (for ourselves, our progeny, our friends, >>> whatever >>> policy-making is in our jurisdiction, in our imagination) is a much >>> trickier one based on myriad principles/values that likely few of us >>> share >>> unless we choose a high dimension-reduction strategy (e.g. single-issue >>> conception). My parents were overtly ZPG advocates and I have one >>> sister >>> which lead me to feel plenty "done" after 2 children myself. Each of >>> my 2 >>> have chosen to only have 1. Many of my friends have chosen to be >>> childless. Most of my peers who were from large sibling groups have at >>> best a replacement cohort among their children and nieces/nephews which >>> are >>> headed toward a NPG in the following generation. >>> >>> My current heuristic is that if I want my grandchildren to reproduce, I >>> need to get out of the way which means unless their other grandparents >>> don't have the grace of knocking off by the time they want to do that, >>> then >>> it is up to me... no open-ended life-extension unless I expect to leave >>> the >>> planet (hear my pain Elon?) I don't think the World3 has been updated >>> to >>> be a Sol model and even considering it really challenges the very >>> structure >>> /concept of the World3 SD model! >>> >>> Most of the population growth models I've run into suggest that we might >>> be >>> on our way to(ward) ZPG with many regions going into NPG, but not until >>> we >>> pass 10B. I don't know that *any* of them factor in the non-linear >>> effects >>> of possible/likely runaway global warming or species collapse. >>> >>> [467px-World_population_] >>> >>> >>> On 2/22/23 11:53 AM, Santafe wrote: >>> >>> Yeah. Bill Rees and Meghan Seibert want 90% of us to die >>> >>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.realgnd.org%2fpeople&c=E,1,CnZKr6BrCIYrStILIg5f47rJ7R1vq_N5xpHj-J4xLtoM6o-NTjvy_FVM4FTstY02_jMOaLgAnDvkKI5hDoJvpNwREjlehP4q-bcwWVxmtWPyTwQw&typo=1 >>> (or a position paper somewhere in their writings). >>> >>> On their people page, you can see what happy ecologists they are, >>> and BIll is a friendly old grandfather with a beard. >>> >>> I shouldn’t be snotty. I think they are actually very tortured >>> about their dictum that 90% of us should die. And I think in some sense >>> they are committed, good people. >>> >>> But I put them up here, because somehow people collapsing under >>> decades of frustration seem to develop a misanthropy that causes them to >>> forget It’s Not All About You (and how tortured you are, being the only >>> truth-teller in a lonely world). If you really care about the thing you >>> say, then it should eclipse your own self-importance enough that you just >>> stay focused on the task. >>> >>> I don’t know in how far their positions turn out to represent solid >>> numbers. Maybe some part of it. But I have said that before. >>> >>> Eric >>> >>> >>> >>> On Feb 22, 2023, at 1:06 PM, Gary Schiltz >>> <g...@naturesvisualarts.com> wrote: >>> >>> A few really do want our species to go extinct, but many believe >>> that we are already overpopulated and need to level off or reduce >>> population. I lean only slightly toward the latter. >>> >>> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 12:51 PM Frank Wimberly >>> <wimber...@gmail.com> wrote: >>> Agreed. But if we don't construct any new ones and the existing >>> ones all die (they will) we will run out. Is that a reasonable goal? >>> >>> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 10:20 AM glen <geprope...@gmail.com> >>> wrote: >>> We do not need more people. We have plenty of people. Please >>> stop constructing people. >8^D >>> >>> On 2/22/23 09:16, Frank Wimberly wrote: >>> >>> I am worried however. I have two grandsons in their 20s. >>> Each has a girlfriend. Those young women want nothing to do with babies. >>> I assume they have younger siblings. I hope that as they enter their 30s >>> their attitudes will change because of the realization that they are >>> running out of time. >>> >>> --- >>> Frank C. Wimberly >>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >>> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >>> >>> 505 670-9918 >>> Santa Fe, NM >>> >>> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023, 10:08 AM Santafe <desm...@santafe.edu >>> <mailto:desm...@santafe.edu>> wrote: >>> >>> I think the keyword was young. >>> >>> You can do that if the old men are all married to young >>> women. >>> >>>> On Feb 22, 2023, at 12:02 PM, Nicholas Thompson <thompnicks...@gmail.com >>>> <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>> wrote: >>>> >>>> Last time I checked, the average number of attached males has to equal the >>>> average number of attached females, unless, of course, females, feel >>>> attached to men who don’t feel attached. >>>> >>>> Sent from my Dumb Phone >>>> >>>> Begin forwarded message: >>>> >>>> From: The Hill <theh...@email.thehill.com >>>> <mailto:theh...@email.thehill.com>> >>>> Date: February 22, 2023 at 7:01:34 AM MST >>>> To: nthomp...@clarku.edu <mailto:nthomp...@clarku.edu> >>>> Subject: [EXT] News Alert: Most young men are single. Most young women are >>>> not. >>>> Reply-To: emailt...@thehill.com <mailto:emailt...@thehill.com> >>>> >>>> >>>> View Online >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> Most young men are single. Most young women are not. >>>> More than 60 percent of young men are single, nearly twice the rate of >>>> unattached young women, signaling a larger breakdown in the social, >>>> romantic and sexual life of the American male. >>>> >>>> Read the full story here. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> Manage Subscriptions | Sign Up for Other Newsletters | Unsubscribe >>>> >>>> 1625 K Street NW, 9th Floor, Washington, DC 20006 >>>> >>>> Copyright © 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use >>>> >>>> To ensure you receive these emails in the future, please add >>>> theh...@email.thehill.com <mailto:theh...@email.thehill.com> to your >>>> address book, contacts or safe senders list. >>>> If you believe this has been sent to you in error, please safely >>>> unsubscribe. >>> >>> -- >>> ꙮ Mɥǝu ǝlǝdɥɐuʇs ɟᴉƃɥʇ' ʇɥǝ ƃɹɐss snɟɟǝɹs˙ ꙮ >>> >>> -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. >>> . >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom >>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,MOAL3u6vTc3L93oYcMjFrnU7SJ8Qi6tCyduhbWGTtbYHt9VANyvTXbZdeIB8bQa_RJhX_P8JUdBP3Z7Ij3P9hBu33hwnSzo9EVTO_2VxYOo,&typo=1 >>> to (un)subscribe >>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,Wpknw_So_X8fZC7eZNV2UqhnMq6HYNdtVNKj8uJyI4xLcrM1puqTjUJ1jQv55a83seumhehGURu7YaG4E4gKEvpcSfL39RM8M0pRIzWe3vGOfRf-XJ4PEGWx4WY,&typo=1 >>> FRIAM-COMIC >>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,hxPPifM_eHo-WSadpnEZtsbTYXzBbejwwfXgX5SvF0C2uzjhlH83nUFDQ-qqvr7SfZBCLGgp-sVTiUgsHbXjBIZwLSqILZzpzNczKjoS&typo=1 >>> archives: 5/2017 thru present >>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,BrJdjQwhD_x0ILj9mWfDLHmByCfwLITccxNa-ZiMGVqFedAfcuhUOfDNImpofXTnmIfMLwguVAQ40uB4qPSpT4vcg-1wdzr0afg7WkbiunPNmQ,,&typo=1 >>> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >>> >>> >>> -- >>> Frank Wimberly >>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz >>> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >>> 505 670-9918 >>> >>> Research: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2 >>> -. --- - 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/ ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom >>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,J5-Fq0mshEQkNykwEIb8lzIVAThhaply4NUQSZMU53UGUWH690ejKG764nH4yZiRIgpiIKVjxZHyWa6a6tUIAW66w8v4jT6wdv9QoaU1KQ,,&typo=1 >>> to (un)subscribe >>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,HZRLkMPBNalXbpw-c0e7UWOE00Qpfwuo0cn51nyy4j4PrGIDqpnncPBe4LUZFyPNvyLi809EIQQosGKrancsVR3pLslwVLHslHcpYf9CNqYgal5KN3yHK7G7AaIZ&typo=1 >>> FRIAM-COMIC >>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,2mQkVkVD9X1mCy0bM0gh3P5adz9m3Yw5RvkpxCnHmxY6A9tzv_Jgu4LQo4M75RsrKGyNudwJtyYBCFeDrhP-Eln9B5jmRi_nrAKdjwxgKvguiXLGj7gTNasm&typo=1 >>> archives: 5/2017 thru present >>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,tqfJFEFIxrxjCagCpqE4luMtPokJzE1gfOblvLTpx6EE6EykIn81Lye_0Vq3f2sLZPUJAg-UiCJ9vRTLaAxr1PgIdJJVqQqoVWF5q8589OM6cRD9ek9xJJyGug,,&typo=1 >>> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >> >> >> -- >> >> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >> Dr Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile) >> Principal, High Performance Coders hpco...@hpcoders.com.au >> >> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fwww.hpcoders.com.au&c=E,1,HFDaX2XxZB9is54Zrp_6cKHCNjQ4Stb-SX3zFn-0ydBVYRwa9qgqgIOBKBeRGb8Vf0BGnxT0Wp2zSzL-hUdaD4YnedmicWm2X4ILcS6fHepTZJy4&typo=1 >> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >> >> -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom >> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,FNuHQLRSF6BEJtKcAQRtJxH_E9cxXDXmPifKxXlq3aihUPElwLNHXQhHZGCNoXQHtT6K9YayH61BFXG0FecSRTSlk_dvPbw-_Wrk3LC5Cw,,&typo=1 >> to (un)subscribe >> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,gCMJTeSWWViwYNA8meCOq6xiHT63REpg1IHPaJT1qmhubvTalu5zDmwqEhYoQ31PZp_woZqGK7RsHxnj8UUB2bAR7JjqNDDWOkaVjSVsM7VfnJWYpTTBfu2O&typo=1 >> FRIAM-COMIC >> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,msVt_M_VhoWxpTNG6vTHO4g4ys-fmm73ZryD7FFfh2K7zCwqY3Ew34Y2Xo6Im4UacihuXjujust_eVH1X0fm2nFW8Ioz6ghDRNSKYHWmClPQO0LW69It&typo=1 >> archives: 5/2017 thru present >> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,q8Jw_8M4cXi6DF0zaEGcZQPtD6uus8NZjK5PcLiEdurPWO4hggChwIJ4CNEsfWyvbn9bBBgy9d2As2cyFVRX-jsRN5Ry70nkMFobC1u4cxU,&typo=1 >> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom https://bit.ly/virtualfriam to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/