I mostly agree with Marcus' sentiment. The dot com analogy may be apt, but it also smells too easy an analog. I find the K-shaped AI adoption to be bizarre. Personally, I do not believe LLMs, nor any particular architecture, to be the be-all-end-all. I suspect we will see a transition away from throwing money at developing the most general form and a move toward more idiosyncratic instantiations. For instance, I continue to think that Deepmind did meaningful work going the RL path with AlphaGo/Atari games and it has yet to come to my attention what happens when Transformers attempt to replicate these successes. Almost every LLM I have met is really really bad at go. This said, AI in their current form, and from this perspective, has been here for a decade. Some have adopted it and use it to surprising effect, others treat LLMs as nothing more than a robust database querying language. What people do with it and how they perceive it will undoubtedly have an impact. In the meantime, I am excited to see what happens as programmers learn to use formal type theories as pidgins and LLMs become more amenable to compositionality.
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