FYI
ADMINISTRATION EYEING VOTE ON AUSTRALIA FTA BEFORE AUGUST RECESS
_______________________________________________
Date: April 23, 2004
The Bush Administration is looking to have Congress approve the recently concluded free trade agreement with Australia before the August recess, and expects to sign the agreement on May 18, with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick and Australian Trade Minister Mark Vaile representing their respective countries, according to sources.
Their assessment is based on contacts with Administration officials, including comments Zoellick's Chief of Staff, Brian Gunderson, made at a business briefing earlier this month.
Gunderson told an April 2 business briefing that the Bush Administration is looking for a congressional vote on legislation implementing the agreement before the August congressional recess, according to sources.
President Bush notified his intent to enter into the agreement on February 13, meaning the Administration must wait at least 90 days before signing the agreement as dictated by the fast-track trade negotiating authority law Congress approved in 2002.
One private-sector source said it appears likely the Administration will send the implementing legislation to Congress sometime in June. Sources held open the possibility that the House could vote on the FTA before it leaves for the July 4 recess, with the Senate voting after the July 4 recess and prior to the August recess.
But Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles Grassley (R-IA) told reporters on April 20 that getting the deal through the House would likely be difficult, and that the FTA faced an easier road in the Senate. The "greater difficulty with any trade agreement would be the House because it's an election year, and protectionism is not dominant but it's on an upswing, and I would expect it would be easier to get it through the Senate than through the House," Grassley said.
However, he said he had no "plans on going first," by moving the bill in the Senate because he wants to ensure that a host of sanitary and phytosanitary issues "are settled with Australia before I make a decision on moving ahead." U.S. producers have been prevented from exporting pork, apples, stone fruit and citrus to Australia because of various SPS measures.
Agricultural groups ranging from the National Pork Producers to the American Farm Bureau Federation have warned that they can only support the agreement once Australia has completed final risk assessments that result in the lifting of measures banning the import of these commodities (Inside U.S. Trade, March 19, p. 12).
Grassley refused to say whether he felt sufficient progress was being made on these assessments, saying only that the assessments have yet to be completed.
No formal vote counts have been taken by Congressional leaders to gauge support for the agreement, business sources said. But one source expressed optimism that agriculture groups would likely take a neutral position on the deal rather than actively opposing it.
Sources have long maintained that the deal would be sold to members of Congress on the strength of its benefits to U.S. manufacturers as opposed to its agricultural provisions. The agreement eliminates virtually all Australian tariffs on U.S. manufactured goods immediately upon the deal taking effect.
Previously, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) said the Australia FTA would pass this year but has not given an indication as to whether a vote would be held before or after the summer recess (Inside U.S. Trade, April 9, p. 5).
Gunderson also told business representatives at the April 2 meeting that the Administration is looking for a vote on legislation implementing the Morocco FTA before or after the summer recess, one business source said. Gunderson said the agreement would likely be signed in June. President Bush notified his intent to enter into the agreement on March 8 meaning the earliest the agreement could be signed would be June 8.
Separately, Gunderson indicated that the prospects of securing congressional approval of the Central American Free Trade Agreement with the U.S. are more remote, according to a business source. The CAFTA is linked with the FTA the U.S. negotiated with the Dominican Republic.
Gunderson said the Administration is eyeing possible approval for the deal in the second half of 2004 or in 2005, according to that source. Other business sources expressed skepticism that the deal could be approved this year, with one source noting that a recent legal review of the text generated complaints from the five Central American countries over having to share with the Dominican Republic a limit on apparel that includes third-country inputs and would still enter the U.S. duty-free (Inside U.S. Trade, April 16, p. 4).
Officials from Central America and the Dominican Republic will be in Washington the week of May 3 to continue reviewing the agreement, a private-sector source said.
In the meantime, sources said trade ministers from the CAFTA countries will be in Washington April 27-28. One source said the focus of that visit will be twofold with the ministers looking for signals on when the CAFTA and the Dominican Republic deals could be signed, and to gauge the prospects of securing congressional approval of the deal.
