Victor Milne:
I think too that computer technology is like none other
that went before because of the very generality and breadth of its
application. It is displacing people at throughout the employment spectrum.
.....Name one new job brought in by computer technology that a displaced
welder or cashier could transfer to. If you can name such a job, then
estimate its numbers relative to the vanished jobs.
Weick:
It is probable that few welders and cashiers have found
jobs in hardware and software, but many have probably found other
jobs. They are, unfortunately, in much the same positions as the
inter-urban carters, drayers and canal boatmen were when steam was first
introduced, or like farmers have been during this century with the
mechanization of agriculture. These people eventually found other work
or relied on whatever social support systems existed at the time.
Victor Milne:
And computers are not the end of the new technologies. In
a recent talk Rifkin said he believes that the 21st century will be the era
of biotechnology.
Weick:
You might as well know it --- I'm not a
Rifkin fan. I have two of his books on my shelves, one about the end
of work, the other about beef. I'm not surprise that he is now turning
his considerable ability to pontificate toward biotechnology. He is a
little like James Michener. Give him a place name (in Rifkin's case,
at topic) and he will write you a book.
Victor Milne:
Of course there would remain work worth doing such as
nursing and educating children. The question is who is willing to fund it?
Weick:
To the very best of my knowledge, we are
going to continue to fund education -- I hope we do because I still have a
kid in school. And the fact that the day care of children has grown so
rapidly would suggest that there is a considerable demand for it and that
funding follows from this. Could that demand and a considerable part
of the funding derive from the fact that parents are working?
Victor Milne:
the production and sale of a golf ball is counted as an
addition to the GNP (recorded on the plus side of the ledger) while the
education of a child is counted as a rather large reduction in the GNP
(recorded on the minus side of the ledger). Until this is changed, there
will be not be many worthwhile jobs for people to find.
Weick:
Not sure I understand. Are you saying that an
accounting error or misconception determines whether or not the economy can
function? Economies have functioned one way or another throughout
history whether or not people had proper accounting systems.
I must admit it is a long time since I paid close
attention to the National Accounts. I do seem to recall that
expenditures on education are valued at cost - that is, on what society (via
government) spends on them. This may not be the best way of valuing
them, but they are shown as positive contributions to GNP. However, it
has been a long time. I will have to clear the cobwebs out of my head
and take a look.
Ed Weick
