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From: Robert Neunteufel
To: Futurework
Subject: working hours-visions
Date: Saturday, November 21, 1998 8:29PM
In addition to the postings on the views on Rifkin's theory
(thanks for all the interesting informations)
I'd like to ask you all for your visions for the developement of the
regular amount of working hours in the next 5, 10, 20 years!
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Ok, Ok, attached is a paper from a just over two years ago which also
attempts, in a serious/whimsical way to get at the answer.
arthur cordell
THE 2010 ANNUAL REPORT OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMISSION
ON WEALTH AND WELL-BEING
Presented to the roundtable
"HI HO, HI HO, IT'S OFF TO WORK WE GO:
Engagement in the 21st Century"
State University of NY at Buffalo, October 24-26, 1996
Arthur J. Cordell
(The views expressed are those of the author alone and are not necessarily
those of any department or agency of government.)
I have a unique contribution to the Roundtable. A gift from the
future. Through methods which we can't explore now, I have obtained parts
of the year 2010 annual report of the International Commission on Wealth and
Well-Being.
The International Commission on Wealth and Well-Being, or ICWW, was
established in 2002 in response to the need for new institutions of global
governance. A perception by nations that traditional institutions such as
the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and others were hopelessly
connected to the rhetoric and the theories of the industrial economy.
But why should you listen to me talk about the Report? Why not turn
directly to the Report itself.
So come with me now as we open the Report.....
INTERNATIONAL COMMISSION ON WEALTH AND WELL-BEING
Looking back from this year, 2010, it is a good time to review some
of the events leading to our founding in 2002.
It is now clear that the stock market collapse of 1998 was the
final straw for many. While the mutual fund mania was bound to end at some
point, many middle class investors who had been downsized, rightsized or
otherwise bought off were content to leave their permanent jobs and invest
their cash settlements in pension schemes. With the stock market collapse
came the realization that something had clearly gone wrong.
The recession that seemed to last forever, got worse as a host of
economic numbers spelled out a gloomier future for all. The riots and loss
of life in Paris, London, Berlin, Tokyo, Toronto, Amsterdam, Bombay and Los
Angeles led directly to the emergency meeting by nation states. There is
still much discussion whether the riots and loss of life could have been
prevented. Did nations have to wait for a crisis before acting? We'll
leave that up to the historians. The fact is that action has been taken and
the results are good.
Back in January 1996, the World Academy of Art and Science noted in
its newsletter, 'All around the world, the arts and sciences and technology
of information/communication are raising productivity while reducing
employment.'
WAAS was not alone. Many voices were heard. Some noted the end of
work with applause, some were wringing their hands. Some called for still
more competitiveness in the face of rising unemployment. The fact is that
in the last decade of the 20th century few were unaware of the great changes
affecting the workplace. The western world was coming to the end of the
industrial era: an era of traditional scarcity, of people having to work in
one job or another to earn money for life's necessities.
Other fundamental changes were taking place. During the 1980's and
1990's the developed world was shedding many of the hard won gains of
development.
Universality, a hallmark of economic development was challenged. At
first it was nibbled at by the de-regulators championing competition in
telecommunications and transportation. Soon it affected education,
libraries and water supplies. De-regulation was based on a simple premise:
let the market decide price and allocation. Avoid cross-subsidization in
markets, nations, and communities. De-regulation took on a life of its own.
University fees skyrocketed, public libraries were closed, private schools
mushroomed for the rich, bottled water became the norm--the poor either
boiled water or adopted the lifestyle of their third world brethren. The
'gated' community, private security forces...We created a society of haves
and have-nots. The middle class was barely hanging on--but the stock market
collapse put an end to that final hope. The plunge in housing prices
followed soon after.
The 90's were an odd time. In the face of so much evidence to the
contrary, nations continued with policies of Economic Growth and Jobs.
Despite the ecological and environmental evidence, governments continued to
hope that still more growth would produce the jobs that would keep their
populations happy and vote them back into power.
Enough looking back. What are some of the accomplishments of the
past 8 years and the outlook for the future?
1. Productivity is now measured differently. It used to be output
per unit of labour input. With the rise of self-serve banking, shopping,
and just about everything else on smart digital networks, new measures of
productivity were proposed and adopted. Productivity now includes quality as
well as time savings. The new approach shows that productivity growth in the
1980's and 1990's was greater than thought. Understating productivity
caused us to understate the wealth being created. National economic
accounts understated growth and there was less money in circulation. With
higher productivity, the returns to labour, to governments for
re-distribution, etc., are now higher. Since productivity was understated
for so long, the higher re-stated growth is non-inflationary. We are
wealthier than we previously thought.
2. In the 1970's the Club of Rome issued its report The Limits to
Growth. As the environmental movement exploded, one of the sayings was
'Growth for growth's sake is the ideology of the cancer cell.' Well that
era is now over. Growth as a political ideology has run its course. We are
still growing, but the growth is more balanced. Growth is aimed at
achieving specific objectives. We are happy to note that the OECD, or the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development changed its name 3
years ago to the OECSD or the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Sustainable Development.
3. The K-12 education system was one where children went so that
they could learn how to make a living. Today we are changing. The new
trend is to educate children to coping with living. Coping with living is
appropriate to a time when nations have moved FROM THE GOAL OF FULL
EMPLOYMENT TO THE GOAL OF FULL ENGAGEMENT.. In a fully engaged society,
citizens have a life-long task of being able to choose among a set of
competing areas of interest. Educated with a love of learning, a sense of
awe and a knowledge of the role of community, individuals are better able
to allocate their own scarce resource: personal energy and time. Educating
students to know their interests and strengths is at the heart of the new
coping strategies.
4. The 25 hour work week is now standard in G-7 countries. An
attractive course of action, even as far back as the 1990's, we couldn't
shorten the work week until global agreements were negotiated. We are
pleased to note that workers in developed countries are no longer
threatened by low-paid labour abroad. The HUT agreement, or Harmonize
Upward Together, in 2006, appears to be holding. Standards for health,
occupational safety, housing, environment and education are all being raised
in most parts of the world. Of course voluntary controls on population were
part of the HUT agreement. (It should be noted that the G-5 trading
nations--Malaysia, Korea, China, Indonesia and India still maintain a 30
hour work week, but their trend is to bring working time in line with the
G-7 nations).
5. Using a variety of fiscal tools especially created to get at the
productivity of the information economy, governments have been able to raise
taxes with the consent of the governed and are now able to fund many areas
of public interest. A new social contract, a sort of global new deal has
been struck. Using the 'bit tax', the Tobin tax and taxing the wealthy,
governments have been able to provide the BES, or Basic Economic Security,
in all but a few countries. Chambers of commerce and business associations
everywhere were at first wary of these new fiscal tools. But appeals to
enlightened self-interest quickly bore fruit. It was clear that without
income, consumers could no longer consume and effective demand in the
economy would sag, putting the global economy into a recession or worse.
(It might be noted that it was just such a sag in consumption during the
late 1990's that finally caught up with the stock market; as earnings
dropped, so too did stocks.)
6. Universal access to communications networks means that people
are able to learn, transact business, converse, etc., using a range of
media. Ideas and images move rather than things. The global economy has
moved away from using polluting scarce fossil fuels. A parallel development
is that the downtown cores of most cities can be revitalized and
re-invented. No longer is it necessary to have millions of people moving in
and out of the world's cities each day. Road building has been frozen.
Commuting, once the great time waster, is on the decline. In fact the car
itself has moved from status symbol to mere utility. The 3000 pound steel
and plastic vehicle of the past has given way to today's personal
transportation super-light vehicles weighing between 800 to 1000 pounds.
7. The International Commission represents the symmetry needed to
meet the globalization promoted by multi-nationals and trans-nationals.
With new institutions such as our own the nation state is now no longer
among the endangered species. Checks and balances have been restored to the
international arena and helps ensure healthy global governance.
8. We have re-learned the need for regulation in our economy. At a
particular level, isolated tele-workers have the right to work in safe
conditions and not be exploited. At a more general level
cross-subsidization is essential to the nation, city, community and to the
family itself. Letting the market make all decisions led to an outcome of
isolated individuals; an outcome that threatened social cohesion.
Universality is now embraced once again as a measure of how the fruits of
economic progress are being distributed. One other note: just as it was
with the railroad a century ago so too is it with the Information Highway
today: universal affordable access has been achieved through regulation and
cross-subsidization.
9. We have accomplished much, but there is still much to do. With a
re-definition of work has come a re-valuation of what people are doing each
day. There is also a re-definition and re-valuation of self and self-worth.
Less and less do we find people asking of others, 'so where do you work?'
More and more, people are asking each other 'so what are you interested in
these days?'
10. The International Commission has not changed fundamental human
traits, and doesn't intend to even if it could. Human ambition, greed and
the need to be noticed are fundamental to the human character. They are
among the driving forces that fuel economic and cultural development. But
there are other human characteristics that have been overlooked. I speak
here of compassion, caring, community, and empathy. As we look forward to
the future our challenge is to forge stronger and more balanced links
between these many human attributes.
11. I close now with a restatement of the core values of the
Commission on Wealth and Well-Being. First, we support the World Academy of
Art and Science in its quote of Albert Einstein:
'The creations of our mind shall be a blessing and not a curse to
mankind.'
We are committed to continuing the upward harmonization among the
nations of the world. That the poorest shall achieve many of the benefits
of the wealthy. That such development will use advanced technologies so
that sustainability and ecological principles are respected. That the very
great technological endowment of humankind is a resource base that can, if
wisely used, benefit all citizens of all nations. That we can harness the
human energies which have led to current abundance, in order to create a
society where individual creativity will flourish in a variety of meaningful
endeavours. That social cohesion is best served if individuals and peoples
are engaged in constructive and meaningful activities. That we will continue
to move to a society of equity, caring and personal well-being for all.
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So this is my contribution to this group. That the present
dystopian trends we see are just that--trends. Jacques Ellul said 'trend
is not destiny' and as we have seen from the report from 2010 he was
correct. We have it in our power to create a positive future. Do we have
the wit and wisdom to do so in time?
Thank-you.
