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Date: Wed, 18 Nov 1998 12:11:24 -0800
From: Robert Theobald <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
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Subject: Millennial Discontinuities.
Since coming back from Australia it seems to me that we are on the cusp
of two questions. First, will Y2K be used by people like us as a
catalyst for positive change or not. This is a difficult question
because there are two dangers, I think. One is to ignore it. The other
is to let it get too important.
The other question is whether the upswing in energy around Y2K and
funddamental change will lead to attempts of various
people/organizations to centralize energy flows or whether we shall be
wise enough to set up decentralized/chaordic structures.
The piece which follows is an indirect attempt to deal with both of
these issues and is hopefully useful for them. This sort of thinking
will underlie our effort to carry through the satellite programming.
MILLENNIAL DISCONTINUITIES; LIVING IN THE RAPIDS OF CHANGE
Robert Theobald.
This piece can be circulated and printed freely. It is part of an
effort to encourage individuals and communities to grasp the challenges
of the next years. For more information see www.resilientcommunities.org
Robert Theobald has been working on fundamental change issues for over
forty years. His most recent book is Reworking Success.
I don't know whether to laugh or cry as people make confident
predictions about the shape of 1999. I would have thought that
economists and social analysts might have been humbled by their
dramatic failures this year. But there’s no sign that people are
willing to recognize the range of discontinuities that face us at this
point.
A year ago, we were being told that the Asian crisis would not affect
the rich countries. Now the story line is that there have been some
significant downsides but that we can be confident that they will be
contained. As an economist by training, although I was long ago
excommunicated for thinking too broadly, I find this extraordinarily
naive. Asia is in the throes of a deflationary spiral due to massive
overcapacity and its impacts on us will continue to be very significant.
This reality alone makes prediction extraordinarily tricky. How much
will the ability of countries to supply goods more cheaply undermine
production in Europe and North America? Will the near recessions in
industry such as steel, oil and textiles spread more broadly? Will
consumers remain confident and be willing to spend all that they earn
without putting aside any savings?
There is an also an extraordinary cross-cut which makes clear thinking
about the next year far more difficult. This is the impact of Y2K. As
questions about this issue get closer to the surface, we are realizing
that there can be no certainties and that this uncertainty will persist
until the events actually occur.
This means that firms, and people, will have to make decisions without
even reasonable levels of knowledge. There is already evidence that
many companies will abandon just-in-time strategies which limit stocks
to what is immediately needed and aim to have enough in hand to keep
working through disruptions. Downward tendencies in economic systems
could therefore be temporarily reversed. But they would be redoubled
when systems settle down again and destocking takes place.
But the even more dramatic issue is around the behavior of individuals,
families and communities. There is growing concern in many people's
minds about what will happen in January 2000. A growing number of
people are suggesting the need to stock up on food and to have more
money in one’s wallet. If these trends were contained, they would give
people a sense of greater control over their lives. But if they were
exaggerated through fear and panic, they could be enormously disruptive
and greatly complicate the management of whatever technical Y2K
breakdowns do occur.
These are the immediate issues for forecasters in 1999. They are,
however, only the tip of the iceberg. We are in the middle of a titanic
clash between two ways of seeing the world. One assumes that technology
and maximum economic growth will resolve the problems of the world that
continuation of twentieth century emphases is viable.
The other believes that we need new goals. It argues that only a
concentration on social cohesion, ecological integrity, effective
decision-making and the quality of life can prevent massive disasters.
It emphasizes the organic over the material and believes that we must
mesh the spiritual with the rational.
My recent trip to Australia showed the strength of the latter vision
and the number of people who hold it. Our understanding of the strength
of this current is held back by our failure to recognize the
interconnections between all the challenges to the current dynamics.
Those of us who want a better future need to see the many forms in
which the clash is taking place.
One of the most dramatic is the difference between our ability to
respond to financial breakdowns and human tragedies. We have been
stinting and limited in our reaction to Hurricane Mitch, claiming that
we must stick to our economic formulas. But when a financial hedge fund
was in trouble, we could find $3.5 billion US without difficulty.
What should we be about at this moment in history? It is time for us to
stop believing that we can predict what conditions are going to be in
the future. It is time for us to live in the present affecting it as we
can from whatever place we currently staand. Those of us who believe
that a better and different world is possible need to use the current
turbulence to share our ideas with others who are ready for them.
Y2K and the Asian crisis are indeed an opportunity. But only if we are
willing and able to recognize that the emerging new world will be
profoundly different from current patterns of personal and social
behavior. Our criteria for success will change dramatically. We shall
care about each other rather than about primarily goods and services,
we shall maintain our ecological systems and we shall recommit to
citizenship.
Some will dismiss these statements as millennial fever. Others will
recognize that the millennium has broken us out of denial and the
cultural trance in which we have been caught for so long. We have an
opportunity. It is time to seize it.
Blessings and Peace,
Robert
East 202 Rockwood Blvd, #1,
Spokane, Wa 99202, USA
509-835-3569
e-mail:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://www.transform.org/transform/tlc/index.html
How do we move from brittle systems to resilient organisms at all
levels from the personal to the ecological? This is my current
question.
Robert L. Stilger, Executive Director Northwest Regional Facilitators
East 525 Mission Avenue
Spokane, WA 99202
Fax: (509) 483 0345
Phone: (509) 484 6733
E-Mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
NRF Home Page: http://www.nrf.org
ResilientCommunities Home Page: http//www.resilientcommunities.org
