Greetings All, (Jay, please fwd to list if my remote posting fails. I'm in Ottawa although return addr is normal) The Global System Simulator project is still evolving under The Canadian Assoc. for the Club of Rome. I'm on a loose committee which is exploring funding ideas for a Global Systems Centre with the "Simulator" as its primary tool.One caveat about models: they are best current knowledge synthesizers and representers. They are not predictors or replicators of reality; they can improve probabilities of anticipating aspects of the future. The output is only as good as the input. To believe that mathematical algorithms can solve the problematique by themselves is hubris. I do believe they can be very helpful tools in the process, or I wouldn't be supporting this project! Steve HTTP://www.cacor.ca/globmod.htmlTitle: Global Modelling
The Canadian Association for the Club of Rome
The Global Modelling Project
The Project was initiated to design and develop a modelling framework to enable group exploration of the complex of global problems referred to by the Club of Rome as the 'global problematique'. The framework provides a structure to facilitate understanding of the interactions between and among this complex of interrelated problems. The driving assumption behind the Project is that better understanding will lead to better decision- making. Initiatives are underway to involve scientists and decision-makers in applying a prototype of the Model as a tool to enhance understanding of trends shaping our future and for exploring possible impacts of various future scenarios on decision options. This is part of the development strategy, which is designed to involve collaborators and users in design, model building and application. The prototype Model presently provides a powerful framework for group exploration of 'what if' questions at the macro, but not at the regional level.
A Global Systems Center is being established to manage further development of the Model to allow exploration of regional issues and inter-regional flows of energy, materials and population and possible impacts of climatic change and other global phenomena. The Model will provide users with access to an integrated group of data sets representing the changes in stocks and flows of the various sub-systems over time. As a learning tool, the Modelling Framework has considerable potential in the educational field and is currently being tested in secondary school environments as a step in adapting it as an adjunct to normal curricula and for interschool applications over the Net.
Two publications describing the Modelling Project are
available by e-mail, or by regular mail for the cost of production and
postage, on request to the Contacts named below (state WP software).
- "Concepts for a New Generation of Global Modelling Tools: Expanding our Capacity for Perception". CACOR Global Modelling Team. CACOR Proceedings, Series 1, Number 7, September, 1993.
- "An Overview of the Global Sustainable Development Demonstration Framework", by Rob. Hoffman and Bert McInnis. September, 1994.
Further postings will be made as the Project develops.
Contacts
Bob Fletcher: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Rob Hoffman: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
