From: tom abeles <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>collapse in other areas lacks the clarity. And, in fact, seems to miss
>the one key ingrediaent "time". The dinasauers were wiped out in a
>catastrophe. What looks like a complete change from our perspective here
>in the 20th century actually involved a signficant time period. The
>Azasazi which Tainter describes, took longer to "die" than the US has
>been in existance.
A loosely-knit, agricultural society is not as dependent on supply lines as
modern society. I think the Soviet Union provides a good example of the
collapse of a modern state. The more interdependent on the "system", the
more rapid the collapse will be.
Just imagine how fast the US would unravel if foreign oil were cut off.
People in California who have to drive 40 miles to get a loaf of bread would
starve. Entire cities in the desert would have to be abandoned due to lack
of water.
This is why the Y2K issue is grabbing the headlines: one screwup in the
wrong place and the entire system grinds to a halt.
------------------------------
I just got the definitive work on open system thermodynamics:
MODERN THERMODYNAMICS: From Heat Engines to Dissipative Structures, Dilip
Kondepudi and Ilya Prigogine; Wiley, 1998
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0471973939
It's a university teaching text --not for the casual reader. If this text
were used in all universities, 3/4 of the battle would be won.
Jay
