On Wed, 2 Feb 2000, Victor Milne wrote: > Could someone on the list (maybe Ed Weick?) tell me the basis for the official unemployment stats? Are they just the number of people collecting EI benefits calculated as a percentage of the total work force, or do they use some other method of determining the number of people "actively seeking work"? > And Tom Walker replied: >Unemployment stats are based on a survey of a sample of the >population. The "unemployed" are those who are currently not working and >who are actively seeking work. It does not include discouraged workers who >have given up looking for work or underemployed workers who are >working part-time because they are unable to find full-time work. =============== Ed G said As a skeptic and not a cynic, I believe the devil is in the details. The key words are "actively seeking work". By changing the polling defining criteria from "seeking work 4 hours, 2 days a week" to "6 hours 4 times a week", a sizeable reduction in unemployments stats. is obtained. =============== The problem with unemployment stats is that they simply state a fact: on the basis of a sample, X% of the labour force is unemployed at a particular time. They give no indication of the uncertainty and vulnerability that exists in the labour market. An interesting approach to trying to capture this can be found on the Ryerson Polytechnic University web page at: http://www.research.ryerson.ca/~ors/research/job.html What follows is part of the summary of the Ryerson study. The study as a whole can be downloaded. Ed Weick ---------- The Job-Poor Recovery: Social Cohesion and the Canadian Labour Market Mike Burke and John Shields Senior Researchers, Ryerson Social Reporting Network Ryerson Polytechnic University Summary Highlights Recent developments in the job market reveal a disturbing pattern characterized by job-poor growth. The kinds of jobs being created are undermining the foundation for middle class life in Canadian society. The middle is being hollowed out and an hour glass labour market created. This hour glass labour market is featured by a segment of the workforce enjoying an important measure of employment security and sufficiency of market-based incomes versus a larger and growing element of the labour force facing insufficiencies in employment security and/or labour market earnings. The source of the growing gap in the Canadian labour market is the deteriorating quality of employment. The Canadian labour market has undergone profound restructuring over the last three decades. Influenced by the forces of globalization, rapid technological change and a radically altered public policy environment, contemporary employment patterns have been restructured away from full-time tenured forms of work in an economy featured by rising living standards and increased expectations, towards flexible forms of employment in a just-in-time economy marked by growing levels of employment contingency, economic polarization and social exclusion. Labour market polarization is jeopardizing the prospects for a secure foundation for family life in Canada. This study offers a unique contribution to understanding the dynamics of Canadian labour market change. Especially noteworthy are the following observations drawn from the analysis based on the Ryerson Social Reporting Network new labour market indices: * over 52 percent of Canadian workers earn less than $15 per hour; * more than 37 percent of working single mothers earn less than $10 per hour compared to 26 per cent for all employees that constitutes an annual salary of only $18,200 based on a yearly 35 hour work week; * 3.2 million Canadians (about one-fifth of the labour force) are structurally excluded form the labour market in that they are either unemployed or significantly underemployed; * some 45 percent of adult employees between the ages of 25-59 are employed in flexible forms of work (less than full-time tenured workers). This represents a highly polarized employment pattern; * flexible forms of employment (part-time, contract, full-time non-tenured) are on average between $5 to $8 per hour more poorly compensated than full-time workers with tenure; * flexible workers lack job ladders and have few opportunities to increase their real income earning capacity over time; * 53 percent of the adult workforce or 6.7 million individuals are in vulnerable employment situations because they lack employment stability and/or market income sufficiency; * single mothers, and more generally women, are significantly over represented among flexible workers and the vulnerably employed; * while higher levels of education are positively related to a better individual positioning in the job market, overall the education effect represents only a minor influence. Gender, single mother status and age are more influential in determining the quality of employment one holds; * trade union membership and public sector employment protect workers from the worst inequality found in flexible and vulnerable forms of work. Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Office of Research Services - Research Reports.url" Ed Goertzen, Oshawa
