Harry noted some painful first hand observations, especially at the
local level, where waste and inefficiency are the product of government
issuing privilege to corporate concerns.
Below, some answers from Lester Brown, most which we have discussed here
on Futurework. Many of the jobs of the future will be found in these
restorative sectors -- some brand new, while others will simply be
revitalized. Technology, still very much helping to afford these
changes, appears to be more cooperative and acquiescent to natural
sustainability. I noticed that economic changes are not so much
discussed as implied or presumed to be beneficial. They are globally
impacting, and though locally should be welcome, may or may not address
or support vital local economies. Not having read his book, I can't
speak for his views on the future of food crops, for example. But it's
difficult to argue that reassigning egregious expenditures from defense
to environmental sustainability will drag us down financially. With a
brighter future not only forecast, but engaged, the basic plan for
correction buys precious time to further revamp our values.
I know there have been many other "Lester Brown" type blueprints for
change. I hope we get to witness such similar plan implementation. The
hurdle, of course, will be to convince corporate concerns, rather than
easily bought politicians, that it's the sole option for their own survival.
Natalia Kuzmyn
Excerpt from: http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/PB2/index.htm
Among the basic commodities---grain and meat in the food sector, oil and
coal in the energy sector, and steel in the industrial sector---China
now consumes more than the United States of each of these except for
oil. It consumes nearly twice as much meat (67 million tons compared
with 39 million tons) and more than twice as much steel (258 million to
104 million tons).
These numbers are about total consumption. "But what if China reaches
the U.S. consumption level per person?" asks Brown. "If China's economy
continues to expand at 8 percent a year, its income per person will
reach the current U.S. level in 2031.
"If at that point China's per capita resource consumption were the same
as in the United States today, then its projected 1.45 billion people
would consume the equivalent of two thirds of the current world grain
harvest. China's paper consumption would be double the world's current
production. There go the world's forests."
If China one day has three cars for every four people, U.S. style, it
will have 1.1 billion cars. The whole world today has 800 million cars.
To provide the roads, highways, and parking lots to accommodate such a
vast fleet, China would have to pave an area equal to the land it now
plants in rice. It would need 99 million barrels of oil a day. Yet the
world currently produces 84 million barrels per day and may never
produce much more.
The western economic model---the fossil-fuel-based, auto-centered,
throwaway economy---is not going to work for China. If it does not work
for China, it will not work for India, which by 2031 is projected to
have a population even larger than China's. Nor will it work for the 3
billion other people in developing countries who are also dreaming the
"American dream."
And, Brown notes, in an increasingly integrated world economy, where all
countries are competing for the same oil, grain, and steel, the existing
economic model will not work for industrial countries either. China is
helping us see that the days of the old economy are numbered.
Sustaining our early twenty-first century global civilization now
depends on shifting to a renewable energy-based, reuse/recycle economy
with a diversified transport system. Business as usual---Plan A---cannot
take us where we want to go. It is time for Plan B, time to build a new
economy and a new world.
Plan B has three components---(1) a restructuring of the global economy
so that it can sustain civilization; (2) an all-out effort to eradicate
poverty, stabilize population, and restore hope in order to elicit
participation of the developing countries; and (3) a systematic effort
to restore natural systems.
Glimpses of the new economy can be seen in the wind farms of Western
Europe, the solar rooftops of Japan, the fast-growing hybrid car fleet
of the United States, the reforested mountains of South Korea, and the
bicycle-friendly streets of Amsterdam. "Virtually everything we need to
do to build an economy that will sustain economic progress is already
being done in one or more countries," says Brown.
"Among the new sources of energy---wind, solar cells, solar thermal,
geothermal, small-scale hydro, biomass---wind is emerging as a major
energy source. In Europe, which is leading the world into the wind era,
some 40 million people now get their residential electricity from wind
farms. The European Wind Energy Association projects that by 2020, half
of the region's population---195 million Europeans---will be getting
their residential electricity from wind.
"Wind energy is growing fast for six reasons: It is abundant, cheap,
inexhaustible, widely distributed, clean, and climate-benign. No other
energy source has this combination of attributes."
For the U.S. automotive fuel economy, the key to greatly reducing oil
use and carbon emissions is gas-electric hybrid cars. The average new
car sold in the United States last year got 22 miles to the gallon,
compared with 55 miles per gallon for the Toyota Prius. If the United
States decided for oil security and climate stabilization reasons to
replace its entire fleet of passenger vehicles with super-efficient
gas-electric hybrids over the next 10 years, gasoline use could easily
be cut in half. This would involve no change in the number of cars or
miles driven, only a shift to the most efficient automotive propulsion
technology now available.
Beyond this, a gas-electric hybrid with an additional storage battery
and a plug-in capacity would allow us to use electricity for short
distance driving, such as the daily commute or grocery shopping. This
could cut U.S. gasoline use by an additional 20 percent, for a total
reduction of 70 percent. Then if we invest in thousands of wind farms
across the country to feed cheap electricity into the grid, we could do
most short-distance driving with wind energy, dramatically reducing both
carbon emissions and the pressure on world oil supplies.
Using timers to recharge batteries with electricity coming from wind
farms during the low demand hours between 1 and 6 a.m. costs the
equivalent of 50ยข-a-gallon gasoline. We have not only an inexhaustible
alternative to dwindling reserves of oil, but an incredibly cheap one.
"Building an economy that will sustain economic progress requires a
cooperative worldwide effort," notes Brown. "This means eradicating
poverty and stabilizing population---in effect, restoring hope among the
world's poor. Eradicating poverty accelerates the shift to smaller
families. Smaller families in turn help to eradicate poverty."
The principal line items in the budget to eradicate poverty are
investments in universal primary school education; school lunch programs
for the poorest of the poor; basic village-level health care, including
vaccinations for childhood diseases; and reproductive health and family
planning services for all the world's women. In total, reaching these
goals will take $68 billion of additional expenditures each year.
A strategy for eradicating poverty will not succeed if an economy's
environmental support systems are collapsing. Brown says, "This means
putting together an earth restoration budget---one to reforest the
earth, restore fisheries, eliminate overgrazing, protect biological
diversity, and raise water productivity to the point where we can
stabilize water tables and restore the flow of rivers. Adopted
worldwide, these measures require additional expenditures of $93 billion
per year."
Combining social goals and earth restoration components into a Plan B
budget means an additional annual expenditure of $161 billion. Such an
investment is huge, but it is not a charitable act. It is an investment
in the world in which our children will live.
"If we fail to build a new economy before decline sets in, it will not
be because of a lack of fiscal resources, but rather because of obsolete
priorities," adds Brown. "The world is now spending $975 billion
annually for military purposes. A large segment of the U.S. 2006
military budget of $492 billion, accounting for half of the world total,
goes to the development and production of new weapon systems.
Unfortunately, these weapons are of little help in curbing terrorism,
nor can they reverse the deforestation of the earth or stabilize climate.
"The military threats to national security today pale beside the trends
of environmental destruction and disruption that threaten the economy
and thus our early twenty-first century civilization itself. New threats
call for new strategies. These threats are environmental degradation,
climate change, the persistence of poverty, and the loss of hope."
The U.S. military budget is totally out of sync with these new threats.
If the United States were to underwrite the entire $161 billion Plan B
budget by shifting resources from the $492 billion spent on the
military, it still would be spending more for military purposes than all
other NATO members plus Russia and China combined.
Of all the resources needed to build an economy that will sustain
economic progress, none is more scarce than time. With climate change we
may be approaching the point of no return. The temptation is to reset
the clock. But we cannot. Nature is the timekeeper.
It is decision time. Like earlier civilizations that got into
environmental trouble, we can decide to stay with business as usual and
watch our global economy decline and eventually collapse. Or we can
shift to Plan B, building an economy that will sustain economic progress.
"It is hard to find the words to express the gravity of our situation
and the momentous nature of the decision we are about to make," says
Brown. "How can we convey the urgency of moving quickly? Will tomorrow
be too late?
"One way or another, the decision will be made by our generation. Of
that there is little doubt. But it will affect life on earth for all
generations to come." *
**
<http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/PlanB_contents.htm>*
---
avast! Antivirus: Outbound message clean.
Virus Database (VPS): 000779-0, 10/08/2007
Tested on: 10/8/2007 11:57:28 AM
avast! - copyright (c) 1988-2007 ALWIL Software.
http://www.avast.com
_______________________________________________
Futurework mailing list
Futurework@fes.uwaterloo.ca
http://fes.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework