Karen, So far, you and I have been considering the coming 11 September strictly from the American point of view. You wrote, for example:
<<<< BTW, I think Bush will not launch PUBLIC attacks on Iraq exactly on 9/11, which promises to be a national day of overcharged and overproduced grieving and propagandizing. >>>> I agree that the coming 11 September will be a special day -- indeed, it could now be regarded as America's first Holy Day. (Wearing my other commerical hat, I've noticed that we've been selling more copies than usual of Mozart's Requiem to American choirs preparing for services that day. In many parts of America the vocal scores in the shops have sold out.) Whereas I, somewhat more cynically, have been regarding 11 September as an opportunity for a publicity coup if Bush were to announce American troop landings in Kuwait or something equally dramatic. But neither of us have been considering 11 September from the point of view of Al Qaeda (or Osama bin Laden, if he is still alive). But let's face it: if an off-planet referee were to pronounce on the state of the war so far he would surely say that Al Qaeda are still winning. The effect of the Trade Center attack is still with us. All of us can vividly remember the videos of the event with undiminished horror. On the other hand, several hundred million Muslims in the world can still remember the event with undiminished jubilation. How much more jubilant would they be if something equally dramatic were to happen on the coming 11 September? No national leader could ever be as much humiliated as Bush would be if this happens. I'm not, of course, suggesting that this will happen. Obviously I've no idea. But I've seen no evidence in the press that the Saudi government have made any determined attempt to destroy the Al Qaeda network in their own country. Saudi officials have said that they have been rounding them up but no numbers and no names have appeared. Certainly no rich Saudi financiers have been identified even though they must be well-known in royal circles. In short, if the first attack was financed by rich Saudis, and carried out by 15 young Saudis out of the 19, then the circumstances are just the same as previously (except that hatred of America has grown apace). There is no reason to think that something similar could not be repeated on 11 September next. Let's remember also that Egypt and Syria attacked Israel on the Jewish Holy Day of Yom Kippur in October 1973. Even Israel with its highly accomplished secret service was not prepared for that and, indeed, the country came close to defeat and only survived because America flew in vast quantities of planes and armaments virtually overnight. Since last 11 September, there has been a plethora of TV documentaries on our screens showing a myriad of methods and sites for further terrorist acts. These will have been wonderful tutorials for Al Qaeda. On FW list before you joined we even discussed several methods by which even more Americans could be killed with a modicum of planning. There we are. The point of my writing is that this possibility must have occurred to many people in the American administration. Bush may not be as bright as one would wish for a US President, but there are certainly some very bright people advising him. Bush must be aware that his reputation is actually hanging by the thinnest of threads even though his present popularity is still high. It's still my view that whatever he may say about the evils of Saddam Hussein and the need to overthrow him, this is as nothing compared with his need to stamp out Al Qaeda. And time is not on Bush's side. Hatred of Aemrica is rising relentessly in Saudi Arabia. In the Financial Times today there is a quote from Youssef Ibrahim, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York: " [ . . . some political analysts say that whatever happens in Iraq, the US and the Saudis are heading for a separation.] The momentum is too strong. The politics of America anger are colliding with Arab counter-anger and no one is stopping the collision." Keith ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------- Keith Hudson,6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England Tel:01225 312622/444881; Fax:01225 447727; E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] ________________________________________________________________________
