Arthur forwarded: > EXISTENTIALISM > Thinking About The Unthinkable > > Often in futures research we attempt to estimate the probability of an > occurrence as well as its possible impact. There are many > methodologies that > can be used for risk assessment and impact analysis, but at the heart > of > them all is the ability to estimate either an objective or subjective > sense > of likelihood. (The ways in which we have learned to deal with risk is > wonderfully described in Peter Bernstein's book, Against the Gods: The > Remarkable Story of Risk.) > > What happens when we do not have any experience whatsoever with the > outcomes? How do we deal with risks that are so substantial that > nothing in > our experience permits us to deal with them? Nick Bostrum of Yale's > Department of philosophy has taken a look at the problem. His essay on > Existential Risk deals with a way of understanding and thinking about > problems in which the adverse outcome would either annihilate > earth-originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically > curtail > its potential. An existential risk is one where humankind as a whole > is > imperiled. Existential disasters have major adverse consequences for > the > course of human civilization for all time to come. He gives a > surprisingly > large number of possible examples, including badly programmed super > intelligence and misapplied nanotechnology. The article also has a > number of > hyperlinked references. > > [Bostrum] <http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html>
I had the privilege of knowing David Hawkins and his wife Frances for a number of years. David died last year. A very brief bio: David Hawkins Age: 88 philosopher of science and historian who was Robert Oppenheimer's assistant on the Manhattan Project and served as the project's official historian. At the University of Colorado, Hawkins and Herbert Simon developed the Hawkins-Simon condition, a theory about the connectedness of several sectors of the economy. Hawkins was among the first recipients of the MacArthur Foundation genius grants. Died: Boulder, Colo., Feb. 24, 2002 ----------------- This bio doesn't mention that after his experiences at Los Alamos from 1942-45 as archivist, David and his wife Frances dedicated most of the rest of their professional lives to helping elementary teachers (mostly women) improve their ability to engage children in the learning of science. David was the director of the Elementary Science Study in the 1960's. What does this have to do with EXISTENTIALISM Thinking About The Unthinkable? Very simple. David had a very real experience with the 'unthinkable' while documenting the events at Los Alamos. He met with Edward Teller, the 'father' of the hydrogen bomb. Teller had worked out the probabilities of what would happen when they tested the first atomic bomb. These are the 3 'probabilities' that Teller shared with Hawkins: i)nothing would happen (the theory was wrong) ii) the heat of the explosion would be so intense that the atmosphere over New Mexico would ignite and destroy everything in the region. iii) the heat of the explosion would be so intense that the atmosphere of the planet would ignite and all life on the planet would be destroyed. David looked at Teller and said "of course the project can't go forward, the risk is too great". The rest is history of course. David, at that moment, lost all enthusiasm for the project. He was the only person who chose not to be present at the first test of the bomb. The morning of the test he asked his wife Frances to stay in bed with their 3 year old daughter, Julie. David told me this story while we were having lunch in a restaurant here in Kingston. He and his wife were helping us with a science inservice series with local elementary teachers. And so it goes, Brian McAndrews _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
