Ed, The Stratfor commentary that you've just posted (09:41 15/01/03 -0500) makes for interesting reading but is so hydra-headed that George Friedman can claim "I wus right" almost whatever happens.
I still think that a draw is imminent. Bush can't win militarily (by bombing and invading Baghdad) because the world (and his own public) wouldn't tolerate the deaths of thousands of innocent civilians. Saddam can't win by using his (non-existent) WMDs on American troops because if he did, Bush would zap Baghdad with a nuclear weapon. Saddam can't retain his position if Bush invades the peripheral regions of Iraq, surrounds Baghdad and just settles there for the duration (which he probably will do if there's no resolution in the next few days). Freidman doesn't mention what I think is a certainty -- that negotiations over long term oil contracts are going on right now and are probably very close to being finalised. All that remains now is for Saddam to finally decide to go into exile, so long as he can obtain guarantees about his safety. Freidman mentions an interesting titbit that fits my picture quite well, and this is that a high-ranking Iraqi official will meet with President Mubarak of Egypt on Jan 18 or 19 "to discuss eleventh-hour strategies to avert a war". That sounds very plausible to me and I think that the chief item on the agenda will be agreed terms for Saddam's security in exile. Tony Blair seems to be spending a lot of family holidays in Egypt recently (he was there only a couple of weeks ago for the third time), and that suggests to me that Mubarak will have a bigger role than might be expected. Even now, as massive quantities of troops and matérial are declared to be on their way from the US and UK to the Gulf, I think the crisis will soon be over. It's nothing to do with WMDs, and never has been. My first hypothesis of some months ago gave too much credit to Bush in assuming that he wanted to reduce the influence of the Wahhabi clerics in Saudi Arabia and militant Islam in general for the sake of both America and the Middle East. My present hypothesis is that Bush's strategy is much more nationalistic than that (and also to satisfy a private group behind him that includes his father). He wants to add long term Iraqi oil contracts to those America already has with Saudi Arabia. We'll see. If I'm right then there's a fair chance that the end will come when I'm on holiday next week. In a Muslim country (Morocco) of all places! Keith Hudson ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------ Keith Hudson, General Editor, Handlo Music, http://www.handlo.com 6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England Tel: +44 1225 312622; Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] ________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
