I found the following interesting item in this week's
Economist. This matter of conscripting the US National Guard (and
the similar Territorials in the UK) will, in my view, loom larger as the
months go by. Of course, all developed countries find it difficult to
recruit regular soldiers of adequate ability so, in Iraq, the really
difficult security jobs are being done by private guards (although they
are not always successful as shown by the repeated sabotage of the
oilfields) and the only really able troops in the American Army are being
reserved for possible occupation of Saudi Arabia in case of revolution by
the large and growing numbers of unemployed young males there.
Fast-moving Special Forces are ringed all around SA, and there are large
numbers of armoured troops ready for action in Qatar and
Kuwait.
Blair and Bush are steadily losing credibility and I cannot imagine
either of them retaining much support by next Spring. Making my
fourth forecast concerning Blair, I would guess that he will have
resigned by then. As for Bush, I would have thought that the Republicans
will be actively looking for another Presidential candidate. I think the
crucial reasons for the downfall of Bush won't be the case, as it is with
Blair, that he will have been demonstrated that he is a liar and
manipulator, but on pervasive domestic grounds such as increasing
unemployment by middle-income workers and the increasing number of
fatherless families in communities all around America. Both of these are
miniature clouds on the horizon at the moment but they'll be growing
larger all through the coming months and I think there'll be a cloudburst
long before November 2004.
Keith Hudson
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OVERSTRETCHED AND OVER THERE
Miami -- Part-time soldiers have to go to Iraq, too
Not since the Vietnam war have the families of American servicemen
expressed suchdeep disquiet. At a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing
on September 24th, members from many different parts of the country
raised questions about the demands now being placed on the National Guard
and the Reserve -- the part-time soldiers, usually deployed for
maintenance, transport and logistics, who are now being sent to
Iraq.
Familes and congressmen are upset by a new Defence Department policy that
has extended the overseas missions of reservists and the National Guard
in Iraq to at least a year, far longer than they are used to. Worse
still, the Pentagon now expects them to serve all that time in Iraq, if
the commander of their unit needs them. Reserve and National Guard units
traditionally spent much of their active duty on bases in the United
States, being trained to go abroad. No such quiet life now. In past
months, recruitment had been boosted by the lack of jobs elsewhere in the
economy. Now recruiters fear it may fall again.
Yet it also seems likely that the Pentagon will need to call on thousands
more National Guard members, beyond the 20,000 already in Iraq. Regular
forces in Iraq are stressed out and overstretched. The Pentagon wants to
bring home the 101st Airborne, which took part in the invasion, early
next year. There had been hopes that foreign help would fill the gap, of
course; but that is proving very hard to find. Paul Wolfowitz. the deputy
secretary of defence, told Congress last month that there were
"stresses" throughout the National Guard and Reserve.
Nowhere is discontent more apparent than in Florida. The state has more
National Guard soldiers activated -- 5,000 out of 13,000 -- than any
other. About 1,950 Florida Guard and about 200 army reservists are
stationed in Iraq, with others in Kuwait, Afghanistan and elsewhere. Most
of the Iraq troops were activated in late December, but did not arrive
there until March or April -- and found they were placed on active duty
for a year, with the possibility of a further extension.
After speaking to relatives last week at meetings in Miami, Orlando and
Tampa, one Florida senator, Bill Nelson, questioned why soldiers from
Florida were being made to stay longer while troops from other states
have been rotated out more quickly. He had already made his case on
September l0th in a letter to Donald Rumsfeld, the secretary of defence,
saying "Now is the time to bring them out."
Mr Wolfowitz has admitted that Florida's case is "extreme".
Although the biggest contingent of the National Guard comes from Alabama,
Florida has more men in the front line, and they were among the first to
enter Iraq alongside regular troops. Senior Pentagon officials told Mr
Nelson that this was because the Florida units were "so darned
good". One of his aides attributes that to the high number of Miami
police serving in the 124th Infantry Regiment, well-trained to deal with
dangerous streets and hot summers.
For many others, however, Iraq is a rude awakening. In peacetime,
National Guardsmen are expected to do one week-end of duty a month, as
well as 15 days a year of active-duty training. Most have some
active-duty military experience; some have served in Panama, Haiti or the
Balkans. But none has witnessed such hostile conditions as
Iraq.
Family members are anxious, however, not to appear unpatriotic. In
general, they express support for the war. The mother of Sergeant Carlos
Escobales, a Miami postman who was sent to Iraq in February and is now in
Tikrit, had hoped he would be home in October, but had not made a fuss.
Then, within hours of Mr Nelson's meetings, the Pentagon offered some
good news, dusting off a "rest and recuperation" policy that
has not been used since the Vietnam war. The policy allows troops with
12-month orders in Iraq to have 15 days of home leave, with special
preference for those with pregnant wives and newborn children. Since Mr
Escobales's wife is due to give birth to the couple's first child in late
October, he will be home at mid-month after all; though he will soon be
back in Tikrit again.
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Economist -- 4 October 2003
