There are many more ironies in Baghdad. At the the same time that the Americans are congratulating themselves that they have recruited a very fine Iraqi police force at full strength, it is also known by others (mainly non-American journalists) that individual Iraqis are only able to get into the force by means of substantial bribes. It is corrupt and intrinsically undependable already. The Iraqi police will no doubt do their peacetime stuff -- such as directing the traffic -- impeccably well, and they might even arrest a few criminal gangs to please the Americans, but in the event of the continuing demoralisation of American forces in Iraq (the first of what will no doubt be many demonstrations have now started in Washington) and a likely civil breakdown in the future, then they're far more likely to turn against the Americans as support them at any critical juncture.
I just don't see how the Americans can succeed in Iraq. They have already received their biggest body blow of all -- the refusal of the big oil corporations to develop the oil fields until there's a legitimate government in place -- and, given the enmity between Sunni and Shia Moslems, there's absolutely no way that the Americans can bring about any sort of workable long-term constitution for Iraq. Unless, of course, they divide the country into three separate domains (as the Ottoman Empire very effectively did until the British took over in the 1920s). But then, if the Kurds obtain autonomy in northern Iraq, they'll control the northern oilfields (containing most of the enormous untapped reserves) -- but this is what the Americans came for in the first place!
Just one more point -- to bring in some evolutionary science to the matter. It is very noticeable that many of Saddam's generals are almost identical in appearance to Saddam himself. The reason for this is that there is a considerable amount of first-cousin marriages in the Arab countries -- allowable in Islam though outlawed by the medieval Christian church. This has the effect of reducing the genome pool among them and concentrating their genes. This can have very serious effects in the case of deleterious genes which then have a higher chance of becoming dominant, but it also means the concentration of particular behavioural traits and, more importantly, that the relationships of quite large numbers of Saddam's underground network is cemented by gene-sharing as great as, if not sometimes greater than, the normal 50:50 gene-sharing between brothers in the west where first cousin marriages are not common even though the rules are now relaxed. (It is this kinship-altruism discovery by Willam D. Hamilton in the 1950s and onwards which has revolutionised Darwinian theory.) Individuals who share a high proportion of genes with others (e.g. mothers and their children, brothers and sisters, etc) are highly likely to sacrifice themselves for others who are close to them if the need arises. (This is a considerable part of the motivation behind the suicidal bombings in Palestine/Israel.) Quite besides their shared loathing of the American occupation, Saddam's supporters within the Tikrit region are held together by genetic relationships that are stronger still.
Keith Hudson
Keith Hudson, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org>, <www.handlo.com>, <www.property-portraits.co.uk>
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