Ed,
the CSM agrees with you.
Kremlin’s
corporate seizure a war of elites @ http://www.csmonitor.com/2003/1031/p01s03-woeu.html
“Until
now, Putin has apparently kept the two conflicting Kremlin clans in check by
playing one off the other. But the likely departure of Putin's chief of staff,
Alexander Voloshin, is being seen as a symbol of the new power shift - and a
warning to business. Voloshin - a main Kremlin advocate of big business - is a
former Yeltsin aide known as the "Gray Cardinal" for his master-of-intrigue
influence. He played a critical role in bringing Putin to
power.
Dmitri
Orlov, deputy head of Moscow's Center for Political Technologies, predicts
that "the authoritarian nature of the current regime will increase ... and
expansion of the siloviki will
have negative consequences for the whole of civil society and the political
future of the country.
"The
problem is that, being aggressive as they are, and expanding quickly, this
group has no positive program," says Mr. Orlov. "It's clear a change of elites
is taking place at the top, but what is their message? Let it be a
totalitarian program, but it should be clear. It can't just be power for
power's sake."
Critics
of the growing power of the siloviki faction, including many in
Russia's print media, charge that the informal system of checks and balances
that prevailed in the Kremlin until now is crumbling, as the St. Petersburg
faction makes its play for more control over Russia's vast natural resources,
which in turn means more political power.”
I believe that,
constitutionally, Putin has one more term to go but cannot run again in
2008. I don't think that Putin went after K. on petty political grounds,
but on grounds of who runs Russia, the central government or the
oligarchs. I repeat what I've said before: Russia, except at the village
level, is not inherently democratic. There are too many diverse
interests and too many nationalities. When I was there in the
mid-nineties, the war against the Chechens was getting all of the attention,
but there were several other little regional wars going on at the same time -
one of the academics I talked to said as many as twelve. The central
government, whether czarist, communist or Putinist (KGBist?), firmly believes
that to control Russia, it has to sit on it hard, very hard, and be extremely
wary of any threats to its power. During the past decade, governments
have not been in a position to do the hard sitting, but it now seems that
Putin has built up a bureaucracy of former KGBists, well able to do the
kind of dirty work that needed to handle threats to his power. I would
be willing to bet that by the time Putin leaves the scene everything will be
under control and that his successor will be a Putin
clone.
Ed
Dimitri
Simes of The Nixon Center was just on CSpan this morning being interviewed on
a number of topics covering Russia and confirmed that Khodorkovsky may have
political ambitions. He said that
Putin cannot run for reelection next time, the implication is that K. has to
be taken out of the competition or become a rehabilitated loyalist who will
continue to play Putin’s game.
Simes
mentioned that the court imposed prison sentence ended Dec.
31st. Is that
correct?
If
it extends beyond that, there would seem to be more politics involved, or
Tsarist tendencies, as Keith has suggested, at
play.
KWC
