Bush is now in an impossible situation in Iraq. There is no way he can bring about a democratic (thus, Shia-dominated) government. The explosion hurting 30 American soldiers this morning is further pressure that he'll have to evacuate soon or else a civil war will start whether the American troops remain or go. What a catastrophe! What stupidity! And the Shia have remained relatively quiet and patient so far! When their (Sistani's) patience is exhausted there'll be a civil war against the Sunni.
In this country, Blair is heading for a parliamentary defeat on a students'-loans-at-university matter. I think he's contrived this in order to be able to resign 'with honour' (!) before the Hutton Report is published in January/February and fingers him for lying (twice) over the Dr Kelly matter. (I think Hutton will only soften his report if Blair goes beforehand.) This won't help Bush's attempts at internationalising the occupation of Iraq (though not inviting the UN, of course, because it will insist on organising democratic elections).
Surely, surely, there'll be moves to oust Bush in the next few months? I'll be very disappointed if Americans (intelligentsia-, CIA-, State Department-, Republican Congress-inspired) haven't the nous to do this well before the electoral campaign starts in earnest. The Chinese must be feeling increasing contempt for the American (democratic?) political system and the sort of people it throws up. (Come to think of it, it's interesting that Blair, despite his attempts in recent years to adopt an international statesman's role, has never been invited to China! I think they must regard him as a shallow person -- which he is -- and with great amusement, if not derision.)
I wonder what impression Rumsfeld took back with him from Iraq? My opinion is that this visit was a clear sign of extreme desparation -- which must be close to its peak now. The impossibility of any sort of peaceful transition to government in Iraq must be dawning even on him. I think there'll be signs of great ructions in the Bush team quite soon -- voluntary resignation of Powell and Condee perhaps, followed by an ousting of Bush and Cheney by various plotters as suggested above?
Keith Hudson Keith Hudson, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org>
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