200. The vice that is now gripping the rich world
Developed countries are now in a vice-like grip which will squeeze
economic growth to zero in the coming years. By "economic
growth" I mean debt-free economic growth. The two purported
fastest-growing economies in the west -- America and the UK -- are only
growing now because because consumers have been cashing in on
re-mortgaging inflationary rises in house rpices and in credit card debts
which have already absorbed their disposable incomes for more than a year
hence.
What are the jaws of the vice? The first is the fast-declining birth rate
in western countries because we no longer have the natural, local
communities in which the raising of children can be shared. Nor do the
middle-class trend-setters who always initiate bursts of economic growth
-- as in the last century -- have any time to spend on children. Their
working weeks are growing longer. Their commuting times are growing
longer. They are reacting like an airplane pilot during a crisis whose
senses are overwhelmed with too much information that he starts shutting
down his perceptions. The initiatory middle-class -- and all those who
follow -- are shutting down by not replacing themselves.
The second jaw of the vice is that there are now no longer any more
status goods of the stimulatory power of the motor car, TV and other
similar goods of the last century. We only have dinky toys now -- mobile
phones, DVDs, etc -- which don't have the profit margins to produce
further waves of investments that the biggies of the last century did.
Nor would the initiatory class have the time to spend on consumer goods
as powerful as the car and TV -- even if they existed. As with lack of
time to spare for children, the trend-setters have no more disposable
time for significant consumer goods.
We need to re-think everything that we have assumed about the good life
during the last century. We need to re-establish the communities that we
all yearn for -- and which can do so many things that the modern economy
is so inefficient at doing. This includes as education, crime prevention,
creative leisure time and real belongingness and genuine status -- not
the status that we have all been spending money to acquire during the
last century.
At the present time, the developed world is committing suicide. If and
when the developing world, such as China, reaches our "standard of
living" and acquires our symptoms also, perhaps it will be more
obvious. Perhaps it will be too late then.
We need to give priority to scientific research into a future energy
technology in order to replace the plundering of fast-declining oil and
gas resources which we have accidentally stumbled upon in the last
century. But we also need to recreate the groups and communities in which
our deep genetic behaviours can be exercised a great deal less
dangerously, and far more satisfyingly than now.
Keith Hudson
<<<<
COUNTRIES PLAY THE DATING GAME TO HALT THE BABY BLUES
David Turner
When governments start running dating programmes, you know that
policymakers are worried about low birth rates.
Since the late 1990s, Japanese prefectures have been organising hiking
trips and cruises for single people. Japan's birth rate, which has fallen
to an average of 1.3 children per woman, is one of the lowest in the
developed world .
Critics say fertility is no business of politicians. There is still a
taboo against "letting the government into your bedroom",
concedes one expert.
So far, the results of the Wedding March dating programme suggest it has
not provided the necessary romantic inspiration. One scheme in Shimane
prefecture in western Japan cost $150,000 during three years, but only
produced seven marriages and four babies.
Many rich countries are beginning to wonder whether they can afford
squeamishness about the subject.
United Nations projections released yesterday suggest that the world's
population will rise by 3bn during the next century, to slightly more
than 9bn. But the population of Europe is forecast to fall from 728m now
to 538m in 2100, and Japan's population is expected to drop from
127m to 90m during the same period.
A recent report on low fertility from the Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development explains in occasionally apocalyptic tones
why countries are starting to worry.
For rich countries, a low birth rate means lower economic growth, which
transforms politics by provoking "shifts in the political weights of
countries in the international arena," the report notes.
There are domestic implications, too. Increasing numbers of people may
have "no, or few, immediate family ties", creating a greater
strain on public services.
The OECD report hints the result could be the replacement of the class
war of the 20th century with an age war, as "larger and healthier
groups" of older people at the top of organisations "resist the
progression and career enhancement of younger people".
The conventional explanation for the baby drought is a combination of
economic growth and more women in the labour force. As women's earning
opportunities increase, the decision to have children becomes a greater
sacrifice. But that explanation no longer seems to fit the
facts.
While Iceland's birth rate is the highest of any OECD European country
bar Turkey, so too is its female employment rate. And although Italy's
female employment rate is one of the lowest in the OECD it also has one
of the lowest rates of reproduction.
Ingólfur Gislason of Iceland's gender equalities council says its high
rate of female employment removes a barrier. "Even if you leave the
labour market for a few years when your child is born, you can be pretty
sure you'll be able to return."
Conversely, low employment can make the young reluctant to breed. Italy
has an exceptionally high proportion of people in their mid- to late-20s
who live with their parents, pushing up the average age at which they
start reproducing.
Getting your economy back on track is not enough to correct this, say
some experts, who believe it is no coincidence that some of the countries
with the lowest birth rates are undergoing painful cultural
transitions.
The average Italian man spends only 1hr 48min a day on childcare and
other unpaid work -- compared with 6hr and 24min for a woman in full-time
paid work. Italian women who choose to have a child will have to shoulder
most of the drudgery -- and may think twice about having
children.
In Japan, the cultural transition is even more marked. In 1955 two-thirds
of couples met through arranged marriages. Now fewer than 10 per cent do,
according to Naohiro Ogawa, demographer and economist at Tokyo's Nihon
University: "Dating is fairly new to the culture." Observers
wonder, only half in jest, whether the Japanese race will be the first to
die out because it is too shy to reproduce.
If fertility is low because cultures are in transition, then extremely
low birth rates are, arguably, temporary. In some countries where
feminism arrived earlier than in Italy, the balance of work between men
and women has become more equal.
But there is an alternative, more worrying, outcome: a vicious circle
where low fertility begets low fertility. Recent surveys show the average
Japanese woman would still like more than two children. But this might
change as low fertility becomes the norm. "What could happen is that
the ideal family size starts to decline," says Prof Ogawa.
He agrees that the mating culture is "in transition". The
future might bring higher fertility to Japan, he says. "But I
wouldn't be surprised if total fertility falls close to one child or
lower."
Financial Times -- 10 December 2003
>>>>
Keith Hudson, Bath, England,
<www.evolutionary-economics.org>
