Indonesia Cuts Ties With J.P. Morgan Over Downgrade http://www.wsj.com/articles/indonesia-cuts-ties-with-j-p-morgan-over-downgrade-1483434650 Equities downgrade could destabilize country’s financial system, Indonesia officials say
J.P. Morgan was one of several banks appointed to receive repatriated funds from Indonesians in a tax-amnesty program aimed at boosting funding for President Joko Widodo’s infrastructure projects. PHOTO: MONEY SHARMA/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES By BEN OTTO and I MADE SENTANA Updated Jan. 3, 2017 8:20 a.m. ET 6 COMMENTS http://www.wsj.com/articles/indonesia-cuts-ties-with-j-p-morgan-over-downgrade-1483434650#livefyre-comment JAKARTA—Indonesia’s government has cut its business partnerships with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., saying the bank’s recent rating downgrade of the nation’s stocks, based in part on Donald Trump’s U.S. election win, could destabilize Indonesia’s financial system. J.P. Morgan had multiple business partnerships with the government of Southeast Asia’s largest economy, including acting as one of several banks appointed to receive penalty payments from Indonesians in a tax-amnesty program aimed at boosting funding for President Joko Widodo’s ambitious infrastructure projects. J.P. Morgan is one of the largest foreign banks operating in Indonesia. In a letter announcing the decision, the Finance Ministry’s treasury directorate general said that, effective Jan. 1, it was ending all partnerships with J.P. Morgan because of the bank’s research that the government said could disturb the stability of the country’s financial system. In a Nov. 13 report about the global repercussions of Mr. Trump’s victory, J.P. Morgan downgraded its rating on Indonesian equities to underweight from overweight, noting that a rise in bond-market volatility “increases emerging-market risk premiums” and “potentially stops/reverses flows into emerging-market fixed income.” “There are losers from Trumponomics,” the report said. An underweight rating means the bank expects an investment to underperform others over the next six to 12 months. The bank also downgraded Turkish equities to underweight and Brazil to neutral. J.P. Morgan will also no longer act as a government-appointed primary dealer in government domestic bond auctions, nor as a panelist for Indonesia’s global dollar-bond offerings, Robert Pakpahan, Indonesia’s director general of budget financing and risk management, said Tuesday. The bank’s research wasn’t credible and accurate, he said. “We don’t close ourselves to assessment because it’s important for us to improve ourselves,” Finance Minister Sri Mulyani said. “But the institutions with big names have very high responsibility in creating positive psychology instead of doing [something] misleading.” J.P. Morgan declined to comment on Indonesia’s views. The bank said its business in Indonesia continues to operate as usual and that the effect on clients is minimal. It said it is working with the Finance Ministry to resolve the issue. J.P. Morgan has worked on six debt-capital-markets deals for the Indonesian government since 2012 worth $13.7 billion, including a $3.4 billion deal it worked on with other banks in June last year, according to Dealogic. On Nov. 14, the day after J.P. Morgan’s report was issued, the yield on Indonesia’s 10-year government bond shot up 0.466 percentage point, its biggest intraday jump since January 2011, to 7.895%. Yields rise as prices fall. The moves came amid a sharp selloff in government bonds around the globe after Mr. Trump’s Nov. 8 victory, which bruised emerging markets. Foreign investors sold $1 billion worth of Indonesian debt in just one week after the election, about 13% of net inflows for the entire year at that point. Mr. Trump’s victory triggered a selloff especially in emerging-market stocks and bonds, with investors pushing up U.S. stocks and Treasury yields on the president-elect’s plans for tax cuts and higher infrastructure spending. In Indonesia, the local stock market has lost almost 4% of its value since the election, while the rupiah has slid 3% against the U.S. dollar. In the fourth quarter last year, foreigners sold a net $2.8 billion in stocks and bonds. Harry Su, an analyst with Bahana Securities in Jakarta, said he has mixed feelings about the report and the government’s decision. “I think the government expects greater support and a more balanced report from its partners,” he said. But he added, “Negative feedback also provides a positive warning system for the government.” Indonesia is a $900 billion economy that has been growing at 5% or better in recent years. Ms. Mulyani, a former managing director for the World Bank, took over the Finance Ministry last year amid efforts by President Widodo to inject changes and fresh credibility into an economy that he says could be growing 7% a year by 2019. Ms. Mulyani has been attempting to bring more credibility to the Finance Ministry, including by cutting spending and implementing reforms to increase tax collection. Write to Ben Otto at ben.o...@wsj.com mailto:ben.o...@wsj.com and I Made Sentana at i-made.sent...@wsj.com mailto:i-made.sent...@wsj.com