July 29, 2020Topic: Security
<https://nationalinterest.org/topic/security>Region: Americas
<https://nationalinterest.org/region/americas>Tags: China
<https://nationalinterest.org/tag/china>Xi Jinping
<https://nationalinterest.org/tag/xi-jinping>Donald Trump
<https://nationalinterest.org/tag/donald-trump-0>Mike Pompeo. Foreign
Policy <https://nationalinterest.org/tag/mike-pompeo-foreign-policy>
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/great-paradox-donald-trump%E2%80%99s-plan-combat-china-165839
The Great Paradox of Donald Trump’s Plan to Combat China
The most telling word Secretary of State Mike Pompeo used to describe
the CCP was “Frankenstein.” This word implies that a monster was now
threatening America. It would be reasonable for an American to feel
scared after hearing the speech.
byKishore Mahbubani <https://nationalinterest.org/profile/kishore-mahbubani>
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The great paradox about theTrump
<https://nationalinterest.org/tag/donald-trump-0>administration’s
response to the challenge fromChina
<https://nationalinterest.org/tag/china>is that it is both
overestimating and underestimating this challenge. The overestimation is
clear; the underestimation, which is more dangerous, less so.
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Secretary of State Mike Pompeo spelled out clearly his case for
overestimation in hisspeech
<https://nationalinterest.org/feature/true-lessons-nixon-and-kissinger%E2%80%99s-china-strategy-165495>of
the Nixon Library on July 23, 2020. “We’re seeing staggering statistics
of China trade abuses that cost American jobs and strike enormous blows
to the economies all across America, including here in Southern
California,” Pompeo said. “And we’re watching a Chinese military that
grows stronger and stronger and indeed more menacing.” One could be
forgiven for believing that China is about to mount a military invasion
of the United States. Yet, there is no doubt that in the military field,
the United States is much stronger than China. In his speech, Pompeo
said, “We’ve called on China to conform its nuclear capabilities to the
strategic realities of our time.” If China heeded his call, then it
would have to add over fifty-five hundred nuclear weapons to its
stockpile since it only has over three hundred weapons, compared to
almost six thousand for the United States.
Pompeo also declared that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)was
exploiting America’s
<https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/reducing-americas-dependence-china-now-strategic-necessity-145077>“free
and open society” and “sent propagandists into our press conferences,
our research centers, our high-schools, our colleges, and even into our
PTA meetings.” In short, Chinese agents of influence have infiltrated
all segments of American society and could undermine it. The most
telling word Pompeo used to describe the CCP was “Frankenstein.” This
word implies that a monster was now threatening America. It would be
reasonable for an American to feel scared after hearing the speech.
Yet, even though the recent speeches on China by Trump administration
officials have been strident, they ultimately underestimate the
challenge posed by China because they fail to realistically explain its
nature. Pompeo makes it clear that it is the communist ideology of the
CCP that is threatening America: As he said, “General Security Xi
Jinping is a true believer in a bankrupt totalitarian ideology. It’s
this ideology that informs his decades-long desire for global hegemony
of China communism.” If global hegemony was indeed China’s goal, then
Americans can relax. Any such ambition of global hegemony will fail. The
world will reject it.
Primis Player Placeholder
The CCP is actually a far more formidable competitor to America because
its primary goal is not global hegemony. It is to revive the world’s
oldest and most resilient civilization and restore its natural place as
the most successful civilization for most of human history. And the CCP
is doing a very good job at this process of revitalization. One little
known fact about the CCP is that since its creation in 1949, seventy-one
years ago, this is the strongest it has ever been.
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A Harvard Kennedy School Ash Center study titled “Understanding CCP
Resilience,” published in July 2020 explains why the CCP is so popular
in China. “Regime theory has long argued that authoritarian systems are
inherently unstable because of their dependence on coercion,
over-centralization of decision making, and the privileging of personal
over institutional power,” according to the report. “Over time, these
inefficiencies tend to weaken the legitimacy of the ruling government,
leading to generalized unrest and citizen dissatisfaction.” This is what
should have happened in China. Instead, as this report says that “the
Party appears to be as strong as ever. A deeper resilience is founded on
popular support for regime policy.” This is why the report concludes
that “there is little evidence to support the idea that the CCP is
losing legitimacy in the eyes of its people.”
Pompeo was also underestimating and misunderstanding the Chinese
challenge when he spoke of the distinction between the CCP and the
Chinese people. He said, “We must also engage and empower the Chinese
people—a dynamic freedom-loving people who are completely distinct from
the CCP.” Here are some important statistics. Each year over twenty
million Chinese apply to join the CCP. About 12 percent of them get in,
making it as difficult to join the CCP as it is to get into leading
universities in America. In short, the CCP is not a party about to crack
up under American pressure: it is floating on an ocean of legitimacy
among 1.4 billion Chinese people, who are now happy as they are
experiencing a new high tide in the history of Chinese civilization.
The2020 Edelman Trust Barometer
<https://www.edelman.com/trustbarometer>reports that 90 percent of the
Chinese people support the Chinese government.
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但亦同時要開源提倡規管加熱煙亦可以令市民感受到政府主動作為，探討比較前沿的議題Article
<https://r1-usc1.zemanta.com/rs/u1c12kt5hlhc/b1_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obOrigUrl=true>
All this explains a key weakness of the American strategy towards China.
No country, with the possible unwise exception of the current Australian
government, has jumped on to the American bandwagon as it rushes to
confront China. Not even close allies like the UK. Oneinfluential
British figure noted in Davos in January that the UK would proceed
toinstall 5G technology
<https://nationalinterest.org/blog/techland/att-adds-low-band-5g-nearly-30-more-markets-163836>from
Huawei
<https://nationalinterest.org/feature/could-donald-trump%E2%80%99s-war-against-huawei-trigger-real-war-china-162565>as
British Intelligence agencies had thoroughly scrubbedthe Huawei software
<https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/technology-trade-war-china-could-be-disaster-157156>.
He confidently asserted that the United States could not arm-twist the
UK as the United States needed the UK as much as the UK needed the
United States. By July, the UK had capitulated. One can only imagine the
arm-twisting that took place. What a contrast to the Cold War when the
UK and the United States were complete comrades-in-arms.
The Trump administration is right on one point. There are rising levels
of concern around the world on the new assertiveness displayed by China
from the “wolf-warrior” diplomats in Europe to the killings of the
Indian soldiers in the Himalayas. An intelligent and thoughtful American
strategy that tried to balance Chinese assertiveness by developing a
wide network of friends across the globe could work. Instead, as Richard
Haas says, “under this administration, we treat the European Union as an
economic foe, bash South Korea and Japan . . . it is not realistic to
expect allies to stand up to a powerful neighbor if they cannot count on
us.”
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If the Trump administration or the United States is serious about taking
on the Chinese challenge, it needs to do a complete reboot and work out
a thoughtful long-term strategy. It should also heed the advice of its
previous strategic thinkers in trying to understand the real nature of
the CCP. As George Kennan said, “Our first step must be to apprehend and
recognize for what it is, the nature of the movement with which we are
dealing. We must study it with same courage, detachment, objectivity,
and same determination not to be emotionally provoked or unseated by it.”
Kennan also advised that the United States should adopt the virtues of
“modesty and humility.” These virtues are absolutely critical if the
United States is to develop a deep and realistic understanding of the
enormous challenge posed by China.
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/Kishore Mahbubani is a professor in the practice of public policy at
the National University of Singapore and the author of/Has China Won?
<https://www.amazon.com/Has-China-Won-Challenge-American/dp/1541768132>
/Image: Reuters/
