With respect to " I hope that we can manage that a bit by pushing to recognize 
common points of reference, move on to points difference and only then start 
discussing solutions." I remind everyone of a perfect starting point for this - 
perhaps we can focus on constructively updating 
http://wiki.apache.org/incubator/IncubatorIssues2013

-----Original Message-----
From: Ted Dunning [mailto:ted.dunn...@gmail.com] 
Sent: Monday, October 12, 2015 9:26 PM
To: general@incubator.apache.org
Subject: Re: Incubation capacity

I think that this is an excellent analysis.

The (gut) feeling I have about scarce resources are:

1) me.  As Marvin noted, I am a failure mode as much as a contributor lately.  
This is largely due to my crazy travel schedule combined with lots of short 
term deliverables. Marvin has lightened that load enormously with the report 
group and I see that as a good way forward

2) mentors. As Zukka mentions, the number of mentors is roughly constant if you 
subtract away those who are MiA


I worry that the lull that others have noted in drama level may be increasing 
again. I hope that we can manage that a bit by pushing to recognize common 
points of reference, move on to points difference and only then start 
discussing solutions.




On Mon, Oct 12, 2015 at 2:13 PM, Jukka Zitting <jukka.zitt...@gmail.com>
wrote:

> Hi,
>
> On Mon, Oct 12, 2015 at 2:50 PM Marvin Humphrey 
> <mar...@rectangular.com>
> wrote:
> > On Mon, Oct 12, 2015 at 8:08 AM, Jukka Zitting <ju...@zitting.name>
> wrote:
> > > It sounds like ruminations about the Incubator are on the increase
> again,
> >
> > I hope that we can make use of some of this bursting energy and 
> > channel
> it
> > into incremental improvements.
> >
> > The Incubator is a stable platform, and it has been functioning well 
> > by historical terms, and with blessedly low drama compared to a few 
> > years
> ago.
> > My impression is that frustration with the institutional resistance 
> > of Incubator to change is skewing impressions of how well it is 
> > doing its
> job of
> > incubating podlings.
>
> Yes, we're far from the drama of 2011.
>
> > > I believe the way the Incubator is organized sets an upper bound 
> > > on the number of podlings it can effectively manage. Based on 
> > > experience and historical data 
> > > (https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3a%2f%2fi
> > > ncubator.apache.org%2fhistory%2f&data=01%7c01%7cRoss.Gardler%40mic
> > > rosoft.com%7c16c58f0566a547707af408d2d3868e32%7c72f988bf86f141af91
> > > ab2d7cd011db47%7c1&sdata=6DkLFL2cvSI%2bi9cpO%2fbrzR6vmzQE4xKDInxbq
> > > %2b270bE%3d *) I believe
> this
> > > limit is somewhere around 30 podlings.
> >
> > I'm curious, Jukka.  Why 30?
>
> I don't have a firm theory on why this is happening, only some key
> observations:
>
> * The entry rate of new podlings has been amazingly constant 
> throughout the existence of the Incubator even though the total number 
> of open source projects has been growing exponentially for much of 
> this time.
>
> * The "limit" was first reached in 2006 during which the board first 
> pushed back on Incubator reports and the current monthly 1/3 reporting 
> schedule was adopted and the process of retiring dormant podlings was 
> adopted.
>
> * The Incubator stayed at or slightly above the 30 podlings limit 
> until around mid-2010 after which many podlings started getting stuck, 
> leading to the crisis of late 2011.
>
> * We solved that problem with a concentrated effort in 2012 that 
> brought the Incubator back to around 30 active podlings, a level that 
> stayed mostly stable for the next two years.
>
> * The number of current podlings is again growing, and some of the 
> issues that have shown up recently remind me of the problems seen five 
> years ago.
>
> It could be that I'm just selectively interpreting history to match my 
> theory, but from a systems perspective it does look as if the 
> Incubator indeed has a structural bandwidth cap that probably feeds 
> into and limits the entry rate.
>
> >  What are the scarce resources?
>
> Some possible answers:
>
> * Mailing list. There is only so much general@ traffic that a single 
> IPMC member can reasonably process without starting to skip 
> significant parts.
>
> * Mentors. The growth rate of the IPMC is fairly constant and, with 
> most members becoming inactive over time, I believe the number of 
> active mentors has not grown too much over the years.
>
> * Chair/Report Manager. Someone still needs to pay attention to 
> everything that's going around, which I believe you and all other 
> recent chairs agree is a daunting task.
>
> One could run some numbers to better quantify the above possibilities.
>
> > And how is this supposed degradation manifesting?
>
> The noise got loud enough to wake me up. :-) I don't have hard 
> numbers, but we do have a couple of recent failures and it sounds like 
> some people are getting concerned, which does remind me of early 2011.
> Of course the one thing you can learn from history is that things are 
> never quite the same.
>
> > Additionally, I'll note that while we're at 43 or so podlings right 
> > now,
> we
> > have multiple podlings about to retire (Droids, Kalumet, likely
> Corinthia) and
> > others about to graduate (Kylin, Groovy).
>
> Right, this might be just a fluke.
>
> BR,
>
> Jukka Zitting
>
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