A little more analysis of what to expect from the recent market "correction" with respect to CO2 levels in the atmosphere.
I didn't look at reported or estimated emissions, instead I reviewed the Scripps Mauna Loa data for the last 40 years http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/in_situ_co2/monthly_mlo.csv during which there have been 3 large global recessions: 1973-1975, 1980-1982, 2001-2003 as well as the one we are in right now. I took the difference in the January CO2 levels in ppmv for each year from the previous year. Here are the relevant results: 1970-1971 1.14 1971-1972 0.60 1972-1973 1.78 1973-1974 0.80 1974-1975 1.05 1975-1976 1.35 1976-1977 1.18 1977-1978 2.04 1978-1979 1.26 1979-1980 1.79 1980-1981 1.22 1981-1982 1.51 1982-1983 0.62 1983-1984 2.33 1984-1985 1.27 1985-1986 1.33 1986-1987 1.72 1987-1988 2.41 1988-1989 2.33 1989-1990 0.90 1990-1991 1.06 1991-1992 1.27 1992-1993 0.71 1993-1994 1.67 1994-1995 1.60 1995-1996 2.08 1996-1997 1.13 1997-1998 2.05 1998-1999 2.92 1999-2000 0.99 2000-2001 1.14 2001-2002 2.16 2002-2003 2.24 2003-2004 2.12 2004-2005 1.57 2005-2006 3.01 2006-2007 1.07 2007-2008 2.62 While it is true that during the recessions, CO2 increases year-over-year declined, sometimes as much as 50%, the increases returned within a year or so and the 5-years after the recession showed larger CO2 increases than the 5 years before. It is important to note that business recessions and CO2 increases do not track exactly as there are other factors involved in both, but the increase in the global economy as a whole over the last 40 years does correlate with increased use of fossil fuels as well as other sources of GHGs. While it would be nice if the present recession were a breather or respite from CO2 increases, history suggests that it will be too short to make any real difference and worse still, pent up demand along with continued growth in the developing nations will rather quickly wipe out any decreases that could have slowed global warming. The most likely impact will be policymakers using this recession as yet another excuse not to reduce emissions or follow through with Kyoto such as it is or its successor. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Dan Whaley" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "geoengineering" <[email protected]> Sent: Wednesday, October 08, 2008 11:50 AM Subject: [geo] Re: Fight Climate Change with Depression you can see the slowdown in the 80s in the mauna loa record On Oct 8, 5:29 am, "Alvia Gaskill" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > I don't think so. Economic activity isn't going to stop. This isn't the > 1930's. Yet. People will still be driving, heating their homes and > factories will still be operating. If anything, the collapse of the > Monopoly Game Ponzi scheme formerly known as Wall Street will hamper > efforts to reign in emissions. And that's something else we can't afford. > > http://news.stv.tv/environment/32969-economic-woes-may-give-planet-a-... > > Economic woes may give planet a breather > NICOSIA (Reuters) - A slowdown in the world economy may give the planet a > breather from the excessively high carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions > responsible for climate change, a Nobel Prize winning scientist said on > Tuesday. Atmospheric scientist Paul J Crutzen, who has in the past floated > the possibility of blitzing the stratosphere with sulfur particles to cool > the earth, said clouds gathering over the world economy could ease the > Earth's environmental burden. > > 07 October 2008 16:28 PM > > a.. Read 6 times > b.. Jump to video > > By Michele Kambas > > NICOSIA (Reuters) - A slowdown in the world economy may give the planet a > breather from the excessively high carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions > responsible for climate change, a Nobel Prize winning scientist said on > Tuesday. > > Atmospheric scientist Paul J Crutzen, who has in the past floated the > possibility of blitzing the stratosphere with sulfur particles to cool the > earth, said clouds gathering over the world economy could ease the earth's > environmental burden. > > Slower economic growth worldwide could help slow growth of carbon dioxide > emissions and trigger more careful use of energy resources, though the > global economic turmoil may also divert focus from efforts to counter > climate change, said Crutzen, winner of the 1995 Nobel Prize in Chemistry > for his work on the depletion of the ozone layer. > > "It's a cruel thing to say ... but if we are looking at a slowdown in the > economy, there will be less fossil fuels burning, so for the climate it > could be an advantage," Crutzen told Reuters in an interview. > > "We could have a much slower increase of CO2 emissions in the atmosphere > ... people will start saving (on energy use) ... but things may get worse > if there is less money available for research and that would be serious." > > CO2 emissions, released by the burning of fossil fuels in power stations, > factories, homes and vehicles, are growing at almost 3.0 percent a year. > > The U.N. Panel on Climate Change estimates that world temperatures may > rise by between 1.8 and 4.0 degrees Celsius (3.2-7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) > this century. The Group of Eight industrial nations agreed in July to a > goal of halving world emissions by 2050. > > Crutzen was in Cyprus for a lecture organized by the Cyprus Institute, a > research foundation. > > He caused a stir with the publication of a paper in 2006 suggesting that > injecting the common pollutant sulfur into the stratosphere some 10 miles > above the earth could snuff out the greenhouse effect. > > He believes that dispersing 1 million tons of sulfur into the stratosphere > each year, either on balloons or in rockets, would deflect sunlight and > cool the planet. > > Scientists observed that world temperatures dropped by 0.5 degrees > centigrade on average when Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines erupted in > 1991, spewing sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere, and Crutzen said the > idea originated with a Russian scientist about 30 years ago. > > "I am not saying we should do it, but it is one of the options if we > continue under present conditions. We should study it," he said. "If you > look beyond a decade, two decades, and nothing has been done (to counter > warming) then we will have a very serious problem on our hands." > > Sulfur is a component of acid rain, which has harmful effects on plants > and fish. > > "Acid rain is caused by sulfur dioxide emissions from the ground, from the > chimneys, and it's 50 million tons per year. The experiment in the > stratosphere would be one million tons of sulfur per year. It's > negligible," he said. > > It would be an extreme endeavor, but for extreme circumstances, he said. > > In a 2007 report, the U.N. climate change panel said such geo-engineering > options were largely speculative and unproven, with the risk of unknown > side effects. Reliable cost estimates had not been published, it said. > > "The price is not a major factor... it's peanuts," said Crutzen. "The cost > has been estimated by some at 10, 20 million U.S. dollars a year." > > (Editing by Kevin Liffey) > > 32969-economic-woes-may-give-planet-a-breather-200.jpg > 17KViewDownload --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
