Kevin Trenberth predicted "the uncertainty in AR5's climate predictions and projections will be much greater than in previous IPCC reports" in a January 2010 Commentary published in Nature Climate Change available here<http://www.nature.com/climate/2010/1002/full/climate.2010.06.html>
He noted that "adding complexity to a modelled system when the real system is complex is no doubt essential for model development" but cautioned that there is a "risk of turning a useful model into a research tool that is not yet skilful at making predictions". Obviously, as he wrote, "it is essential to take on the challenge" of improving the models, but "the question is not whether to do this work, but whether experimental model results should be included as part of a process that is used to inform policymakers and society of the changes to come". "If the merits of a given technique have not yet been thoroughly established through the peer-reviewed literature, is it appropriate to employ it under the banner of the IPCC?" "...what to do about climate change is a high-profile, politically charged issue involving winners and losers, and such results can be misused. In fact - to offer one more predictions - I expect that they will be". On Monday, June 18, 2012 8:38:00 PM UTC-7, bala wrote: > > Here is the pdf. > Bala > > On Fri, Jun 15, 2012 at 2:47 PM, Manu Sharma <orangeh...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> New research published in Nature argues that climate change uncertainty >> will increase with time. >> >> For discussion on the paper and implications for geoengineering.... >> ________ >> >> Uncertainty: Climate models at their limit? >> >> Estimates of climate-change impacts will get less, rather than more, >> certain. But this should not excuse inaction, say Mark Maslin and Patrick >> Austin. >> >> http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v486/n7402/full/486183a.html >> __________ >> >> If someone has the full version pdf, please post. >> >> Thanks, >> Manu >> >> >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "geoengineering" group. >> To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >> geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. >> For more options, visit this group at >> http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. >> > > > > -- > Best wishes, > > ------------------------------------------------------------------- > Dr. G. Bala > Associate Professor > Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences > Indian Institute of Science > Bangalore - 560 012 > India > > Tel: +91 80 2293 3428 > +91 80 2293 2075 > Fax: +91 80 2360 0865 > +91 80 2293 3425 > Email: gb...@caos.iisc.ernet.in > bala....@gmail.com > Web:http://caos.iisc.ernet.in/faculty/gbala/gbala.html > ------------------------------------------------------------------- > > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msg/geoengineering/-/gPT7dRwKKnQJ. To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en.
