It makes my life in the conservation community very hard to defend geo-engineering when statements like this are out. I am not going to try to engage in this scenario but invite a discussion with oceanographers and marine biologists if anyone is interested in exploring this hypothesis. However, either way, this debate will fuel the contempt for an engineering approach to helping to mitigate-adapt to cc without full environmental, ecological and socio-economic analysis. Off the cuff remarks can fuel alienation as a community rather than build bridges. The ocean is not a bargaining chip, and it can be easily assumed that saying ok to losing all marine life could be linked to advocating SRM and not worrying about ocean acidification. We lend ourselves open to assumptions with lose and flipant hypotheses. Please be vigilant not to further alienate geo-engineering and geo-engineers from the likes of ETC and other advocates against geo-eng. Many thanks, Emily Sent from my BlackBerry
-----Original Message----- From: Ken Caldeira <kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu> Sender: kcalde...@gmail.com Date: Sat, 8 Jun 2013 17:01:30 To: Andrew Lockley<andrew.lock...@gmail.com> Cc: Emily Lewis-Brown<em...@lewis-brown.net>; geoengineering<geoengineering@googlegroups.com>; David Lewis<jrandomwin...@gmail.com> Subject: Re: [geo] The Caldeira "If you Sterilize the Ocean We'd Still Have Chicken McNuggets Hypothesis" questioned by Ocean expert Andrew, Please respond to what I said and not what you imagine I said. The issue has to do with a hypothetical case of sterilization of the oceans. There was no reference to climate change in my statement. I challenge anyone to construct a plausible causal chain that would lead from sterilization of the oceans to downfall of human civilization. This is not an expression of my values, this is an expression of my scientific understanding. Let all realize that I spend a large chunk of my time trying to investigate and protect human threats to ocean ecosystems. *This Scientist Aims High to Save the World's Coral Reefs* http://www.npr.org/player/v2/mediaPlayer.html?action=1&t=1&islist=false&id=176344300&m=178462367<http://www.npr.org/player/v2/mediaPlayer.html?action=1&t=1&islist=false&id=176344300&m=178462367> (Aired Monday, 4/22 on NPR's All Things Considered; 7 minutes, 49 seconds) Best, Ken On Saturday, June 8, 2013, Andrew Lockley wrote: > In my view, history provides the best guide to the future. > > Civilisations are not long lived at the best of times, and their messy and > painful demise is usually accompanied by minor climate disruption. > > The more complex the civilisation, the less robust it is, as there is a > greater interconnectedness, and hence a greater ability to transmit shocks > through the system. To further explain : our ancestors would not have heard > about an antipodean earthquake, whereas now such a tremor can send markets > into meltdown in minutes. > > The idea that despite this much more vulnerable society, the American > middle class will survive the worst climate change in human history without > disruption to the Chicken McNugget supply, or to the ability of Hollywood > to produce Game of Thrones, is completely bizarre. > > Someone, somewhere will likely be eating a piece of battered chicken meat. > Someone, somewhere will probably still have a working digital camera and > some kind of transmission equipment . This does not equate to an > uninterrupted experience for the US middle class. > > A > On Jun 8, 2013 8:42 AM, "Emily L-B" <em...@lewis-brown.net> wrote: > > ** > Hi all, I'd propose you put this hypothesis to Dan Laffolley (you can > google him). > There are so many responses to this I am overwhelmed and can't respond > coherently. Apart from anything else, my understanding is that decay of > ocean matter would release noxious gases. So while there may be O2, it may > be polluted. > Best wishes, > Emily. > Sent from my BlackBerry > ------------------------------ > *From: * Ken Caldeira <kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu> > *Sender: * geoengineering@googlegroups.com > *Date: *Sat, 8 Jun 2013 15:05:06 +0800 > *To: *jrandomwin...@gmail.com<jrandomwin...@gmail.com> > *ReplyTo: * kcalde...@gmail.com > *Cc: *geoengineering@googlegroups.com<geoengineering@googlegroups.com> > *Subject: *[geo] The Caldeira "If you Sterilize the Ocean We'd Still Have > Chicken McNuggets Hypothesis" questioned by Ocean expert > > David, > > The residence time of oxygen in the atmosphere + ocean + biosphere with > respect to the lithosphere is millions of years. > > There are about 4 x 10 ** 19 mol of O2 in the atmosphere. The rate of > removal of this O2 by organic carbon weathering is about 4 x 10 ** 12 mol > per year. I am not sure about pyrite oxidation and so on but you can check > out the attached paper for an entree into the literature. > > In any case, the 1000 year number you cite is not based on any reliable > literature value. A better guess might be that we would have breathable > oxygen on the order of a million years if you eliminated all life on land > and sea. If life were eliminated in the oceans only, I don't know of > anything that would impede our ability to eat Chicken McNuggets and watch > TV indefinitely. > > Let me make it clear that I value life in the oceans quite highly and do > not at all like Chicken McNuggets. (For some reason, nutters on the web > think that you can't discuss anything unless you are advocating actually > doing it.) > > Best, > > Ken > > On Saturday, June 8, 2013, David Lewis wrote: > > During the Q&A after his 2012 AGU talk entitled "*Ocean Acidification: > Adaptive Challenge or Extinction Threat?*", Ken Caldeira said: "I > actually think* if you sterilize the ocean*, yes vulnerable people would > be hurt, poor people would be hurt, but that* we'd still have Chicken > McNuggets and TV shows and basically we'd be OK* " A video of Ken's > entire talk is* available > here*<http://fallmeeting.agu.org/2012/events/gc44c-special-lecture-in-ocean-acidification-consequences-of-excess-carbon-dioxide-in-the-marine-environment-video-on-demand/>. > He lays out the McNugget/Ocean Sterilization hypothesis starting at *minute > 50:20*. > > This seemed to be Ken's answer to the question he posed in his subtitle, > i.e. is homo sapiens facing a threat of extinction as a result of any > particular odd behavior the species is engaged in at the moment such as > carelessly dumping waste gases into the atmosphere which are changing the > chemistry of the global ocean? > > Callum Roberts, a scientist who studies the impact of human activity on > marine ecosystems, addressed an audience at the University of Sydney this > year where he discussed the many problems human activity is causing life in > the oceans. He interrupted his litany of woe briefly to tell the audience > of some "*good news*" he had: "even if all the ocean's primary > productivity were shot down tomorrow,* it will still be a long time > before we suffocate *because there's plenty of oxygen in the atmosphere, > enough for more than 1,000 years. So hopefully we can get our heads aro > > -- _______________ Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution for Science Dept of Global Ecology 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA +1 650 704 7212 kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab @kencaldeira *Caldeira Lab is hiring postdoctoral researchers.* *http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab/Caldeira_employment.html* Check out the profile of me on NPR's All Things Considered<http://www.npr.org/2013/04/22/176344300/this-scientist-aims-high-to-save-the-worlds-coral-reefs> -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. 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