Yes, the contribution to arcus outlook deviates from the normally conservative MONTH approach. Perhaps it's just different researchers. Many organisations have a range of views within them and the Outlook is not very public. I have been told by government and ngos alike not to use info wich may 'scare the public', ie sensoring the data to make it more palatable. Best wishes Emily Sent from my BlackBerry
-----Original Message----- From: Veli Albert Kallio <albert_kal...@hotmail.com> Date: Sat, 22 Jun 2013 03:57:34 To: em...@lewis-brown.net<em...@lewis-brown.net>; neum...@gmail.com<neum...@gmail.com>; Geoengineering FIPC<geoengineering@googlegroups.com> Subject: RE: [geo] Prediction: Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013 "Interesting that the Met Office is the lowest projection." May be my barking at the Met Office worked! Since 26th June 2012 there has been in circulation leaks in political gossip media that the US Navy was expecting "watery" Arctic in 2013 and had promoted it to the headline section. I have trumpeted this projection to Professor Sir John Mitchell, FRS, that how come, on the other side of the pond, Professor Sir John Beddington was telling for UK government on 30th May 2012, citing their Hadley Centre, that the sea ice may vanish only at the end of the 21st century (the letter to AMEG/John Nissen following our presentation at the EAC in February 2012). There were just three weeks between the Beddington letter and the US leak and yet there were 100 times time difference in the estimated rate of sea ice loss at this side of the Atlantic pond. Mitchell couldn't respond anything back. So, may be, they have upped up their choices from 2080 (2100?) so that they are not at the dog's tail tip this time if there were something happening this or near years. ESA's Cryosat Mission leader late Seymour Laxon put that at 2020, only 7 years now, whereas AMEG at EAC put it 5 years earlier than that. The lowest margin Beddington gave was 'sometime after 2030'. The EAC report was put on halt when they realised their likely error, and in the autumn (after September 2012) the tone of the EAC report was modified to reflect upon the large ice losses of the last year (that the ice might go very rapidly). I have no further comment to Emily's remark of finding Met Office's lowest projection interesting, other than they may try to compensate for their 2012 over-conservative estimates by trying to shoot out 'fast' date. After all, if science is unbiased, its error bar should take shots both below and above the mean value at 50%/50% rate. If a rate is 90%/10%, or 99%/1% then there is a bias to either being excessively conservative or excessively alarmist on regular basis (which is the case of IPCC and the Arctic Council with their sea ice melting estimates for years - due to politics?). So this might be a yet another political move by the Met Office o be aggressive this year, this time. to compensate for their last year blunder when they advised 2080 or 2100 when the Arctic Ocean sea ice may melt away. However, to console their difficulty I would recommend Timothy Lenton's paper who were at the EAC to present the Met Office's then futile version: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1204.5445v1.pdf Lenton was already expressing some change of mind to his EAC presentation at Elsevier's Planet Under Pressure 2012 (PUP2012) conference in April 2012. He seems to have come a long way forward rising the increased chaoticity of the ocean system in the Arctic as above. Subject: Re: [geo] Prediction: Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013 To: neum...@gmail.com; geoengineering@googlegroups.com From: em...@lewis-brown.net Date: Fri, 21 Jun 2013 16:10:05 +0000 Hi, thanks for this. Very useful. The Sea ice outlook is also offered on the Arcus website http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2013/june Interesting that the Met Office is the lowest projection. Best wishes, Emily.Sent from my BlackBerryFrom: Erik Neumann <neum...@gmail.com> Sender: geoengineering@googlegroups.com Date: Fri, 21 Jun 2013 07:35:01 -0700 (PDT)To: <geoengineering@googlegroups.com>ReplyTo: neum...@gmail.com Subject: [geo] Prediction: Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013 Article published June 10 2013 on Sierra Club Canada website: Why Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013 by Paul Beckwithhttp://www.sierraclub.ca/en/AdultDiscussionPlease Not peer-reviewed science I know, but he's a Ph.D. student in climatology. The animation he made is somewhat alarming, showing how the ice speed is related to early thinning this season. Quote from the article:In previous years, when cyclones (low pressure storm systems) moved over sea ice, there was little noticeable effect. However, last August (2012) -- like a giant blender -- a massive cyclone invaded the Arctic Ocean basin and smashed around sea ice for roughly 8 days. In the end, a staggering 0.8 million square kilometres of sea ice was lost (a roughly 20% reduction from the year before). By mid-September the icecap was at a record low volume (best illustrated in this YouTube video titled “Arctic sea ice minimum volumes 1979-2012”). Within the last few weeks, cyclonic activity has returned and once again caused substantial thinning and weakening of the sea ice near the North Pole. Ice near the center of cyclonic activity, recently 2 to 2.5 metres thick (light blue in my animation), has thinned to roughly 1.25 metres (dark blue in my animation). This in less than 2 weeks: unprecedented so early in the melt season. More significantly, in the last few days a gaping “hole” has appeared in the much thicker ice just north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Ice that was recently 3.5 to 4 metres thick (yellow in my animation) is now less than 2 metres thick in the hole. The hole is likely due to a combination of divergence of the ice away from the rotating cyclone center, and the upwelling (churning up) of warm, salty sea water below. The most rapid melting and ice deterioration is occurring below the surface (where the cold surface air temperature can’t slow melting). The magnitude of the most recent cyclonic activity is not unusual, although the persistence is. What is also new in the equation is the ability of these common cyclones to degrade the ice, and do so very early in the melt season. Also new is the substantial increase in amplitude, frequency and duration of cyclonic activity in the Arctic Ocean basin. The thinning ice cover not only breaks up easier now (even by relatively small and weak cyclones), more open water leads to an increase in melting and storm intensity. It’s for all these reasons I find it extremely difficult to comprehend how any sea ice will be left after this year’s summer ‘melt season’. Clearly this is a minority viewpoint, and likely he is "crying wolf". OTOH, chaotic systems can shift rapidly when you get near instability. And in many fields, it's the young researchers who can see new phenomena that oldsters can't see. Geoengineers get ready. Your moment in the spotlight is coming soon. --ErikN -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
