Poster's note:  cyclone damage may be an important factor in liability
discussions and claims regarding CE.  Studies like this may be helpful
in informing the normative, rights, legal and economic literature.

More tropical cyclones in a cooler climate?

Masato Sugi,
Kohei Yoshida,
Hiroyuki Murakami
22 August 2015
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064929

Abstract

Recent review papers reported that many high-resolution global climate
models consistently projected a reduction of global tropical cyclone
(TC) frequency in a future warmer climate, although the mechanism of
the reduction is not yet fully understood. Here we present a result of
4K-cooler climate experiment. The global TC frequency significantly
increases in the 4K-cooler climate compared to the present climate.
This is consistent with a significant decrease in TC frequency in the
4K-warmer climate. For the mechanism of TC frequency reduction in a
warmer climate, upward mass flux hypothesis and saturation deficit
hypothesis have been proposed. The result of the 4K-cooler climate
experiment is consistent with these two hypotheses. One very
interesting point is that the experiment has clearly shown that TC
genesis is possible at sea surface temperature (SST) well below 26°C
which has been considered as the lowest SST limit for TC genesis.

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