Aug 2nd 2018, The Economist, Lead Article onClimate Change
Key Points · Calamities once considered freakishare now commonplace – scientists caution that weather patterns will go berserk · Greenhouse-gas emissions are up. Soare investments in oil and gas. In 2017, demand for coal rose. Subsidies forrenewables are dwindling. Nuclear isexpensive and unpopular · Mankind is losing the war. Decarbonisationis proving extraordinarily difficult · In 2006-16, Asia’s emerging economiesenergy consumption rose by 40%. Use of coal grew at an annual rate of 3.1%, naturalgas grew by 5.2% and of oil by 2.9%. · Fossil fuels are easier to hook up totoday’s grids than renewables · Economic and political inertia: lobbies,and the voters who back them, entrench coal · Steel, cement, farming, transport andother forms of economic activity account for over half of global carbonemissions. They are technically harder to clean up than power generation andare protected by vested industrial interests. · Sturdier grids, zero-carbon steel, carbon-negativecement, research into “solar geoengineering” should all be redoubled. · Blood, sweat and geoengineers: Westerncountries must honour Paris commitment to help poorer places adapt and abate withoutsacrificing growth · the world looks poised to get a lothotter first. Full Article In the line of fire: Theworld is losing the war against climate change Rising energy demand means use of fossil fuels is heading in the wrongdirection https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/08/02/the-world-is-losing-the-war-against-climate-change Print edition | Leaders Aug 2nd 2018 EARTH is smouldering. From Seattle to Siberia this summer, flames haveconsumed swathes of the northern hemisphere. One of 18 wildfires sweepingthrough California, among the worst in the state’s history, is generating suchheat that it created its own weather. Fires that raged through a coastal areanear Athens last week killed 91 (see article). Elsewherepeople are suffocating in the heat. Roughly 125 have died in Japan as theresult of a heatwave that pushed temperatures in Tokyo above 40°C for the firsttime. Such calamities, once considered freakish, arenow commonplace. Scientists have long cautioned that, as the planetwarms—it is roughly 1°C hotter today than before the industrial age’s firstfurnaces were lit—weather patterns will go berserk.An early analysis has found that this sweltering European summer would havebeen less than half as likely were it not for human-induced global warming. Yet as the impact of climate change becomes more evident, so too doesthe scale of the challenge ahead. Three years after countries vowed in Paris tokeep warming “well below” 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels, greenhouse-gas emissions are up again. So are investmentsin oil and gas. In 2017, for the first time in four years, demand for coalrose. Subsidies for renewables, such as wind and solar power, are dwindling inmany places and investment has stalled; climate-friendly nuclear power isexpensive and unpopular. It is tempting to think these are temporary setbacksand that mankind, with its instinct forself-preservation, will muddle through to a victory over global warming. Infact, it is losing the war. Living in a fuel’s paradise Insufficientprogress is not to say no progress at all. As solar panels, wind turbines andother low-carbon technologies become cheaper and more efficient, their use hassurged. Last year the number of electric cars sold around the world passed 1m.In some sunny and blustery places renewable power now costs less than coal. Public concern is picking up. A poll last year of 38 countries foundthat 61% of people see climate change as a big threat; only the terrorists ofIslamic State inspired more fear. In the West campaigning investors talk ofdivesting from companies that make their living from coal and oil. DespitePresident Donald Trump’s decision to yank America out of the Paris deal, manyAmerican cities and states have reaffirmed their commitment to it. Even some ofthe sceptic-in-chief’s fellow Republicans appear less averse to tackling theproblem (see article). Insmog-shrouded China and India, citizens choking on fumes are promptinggovernments to rethink plans to rely heavily on coal to electrify theircountries. Optimists say that decarbonisation is withinreach. Yet, even allowing for the familiar complexities of agreeing on andenforcing global targets, it is proving extraordinarily difficult. One reason is soaring energy demand, especially in developing Asia. In 2006-16, as Asia’s emerging economies forged ahead,their energy consumption rose by 40%. The use of coal, easily the dirtiestfossil fuel, grew at an annual rate of 3.1%. Use of cleaner natural gas grew by5.2% and of oil by 2.9%. Fossil fuels are easier to hook up to today’s gridsthan renewables that depend on the sun shining and the wind blowing. Evenas green fund managers threaten to pull back from oil companies, state-ownedbehemoths in the Middle East and Russia see Asian demand as a compelling reasonto invest. The second reason is economic and politicalinertia. The more fossil fuels a country consumes, the harder it is to weanitself off them. Powerful lobbies, and the voters whoback them, entrench coal in the energy mix. Reshaping existing ways ofdoing things can take years. In 2017 Britain enjoyed its first coal-free daysince igniting the Industrial Revolution in the 1800s. Coal generates notmerely 80% of India’s electricity, but also underpins the economies of some ofits poorest states (see Briefing). Panjandrumsin Delhi are not keen to countenance the end of coal, lest that cripple thebanking system, which lent it too much money, and the railways, which depend onit. Last is the technical challenge of stripping carbon out of industriesbeyond power generation. Steel, cement, farming,transport and other forms of economic activity account for over half of globalcarbon emissions. They are technically harder to clean up than power generationand are protected by vested industrial interests. Successes can turn out tobe illusory. Because China’s 1m-plus electric cars draw their oomph from anelectricity grid that draws two-thirds of its power from coal, they producemore carbon dioxide than some fuel-efficient petrol-driven models. Meanwhile,scrubbing CO2 from the atmosphere, which climate models imply is needed on avast scale to meet the Paris target, attracts even less attention. The world is not short of ideas to realise the Paris goal. Around 70countries or regions, responsible for one-fifth of all emissions, now pricecarbon. Technologists beaver away on sturdier grids,zero-carbon steel, even carbon-negative cement, whose production absorbs moreCO2 than it releases. All these efforts and more—including research into “solargeoengineering” to reflect sunlight back into space—should be redoubled. Blood, sweat and geoengineers Yet none of thesefixes will come to much unless climate listlessness is tackled head on. Western countries grew wealthy on a carbon-heavy diet ofindustrial development. They must honour their commitment in the Parisagreement to help poorer places both adapt to a warmer Earth and also abatefuture emissions without sacrificing the growth needed to leave povertybehind. Averting climate change will come at a short-term financialcost—although the shift from carbon may eventually enrich the economy, as themove to carbon-burning cars, lorries and electricity did in the 20th century.Politicians have an essential role to play in making the case for reform and inensuring that the most vulnerable do not bear the brunt of the change. Perhapsglobal warming will help them fire up the collective will. Sadly, the world looks poised to get a lot hotter first. This article appeared in the Leaders section of the printedition under the headline "In the line of fire" Print edition | Leaders Aug 2nd 2018 -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. 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