https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33510021/

Aerosol-cloud-climate cooling overestimated by ship-track data
Franziska Glassmeier et al. Science. 2021.
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Abstract
The effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the reflectivity of stratocumulus
cloud decks through changes in cloud amount is a major uncertainty in
climate projections. In frequently occurring nonprecipitating
stratocumulus, cloud amount can decrease through aerosol-enhanced cloud-top
mixing. The climatological relevance of this effect is debated because ship
exhaust only marginally reduces stratocumulus amount. By comparing detailed
numerical simulations with satellite analyses, we show that ship-track
studies cannot be generalized to estimate the climatological forcing of
anthropogenic aerosol. The ship track-derived sensitivity of the radiative
effect of nonprecipitating stratocumulus to aerosol overestimates their
cooling effect by up to 200%. The offsetting warming effect of decreasing
stratocumulus amount needs to be taken into account if we are to constrain
the cloud-mediated radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosol.

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