https://www.researchgate.net/publication/383918692_Climate_sensitivity_from_feedback_trends_using_energy_consumption_rates_Runaway_feedback_threshold_passed_requiring_solar_geoengineering
*Authors* Alec Feinberg September 2024 *Abstract* This paper provides climate sensitivity estimates and feedback trend analysis using data from 1975-2024 including projections and approximations for earlier periods. Modeling is accomplished by focusing on normalized correlated rates (NCRs) finding: 0.0204/year to 0.029/year for global warming (GW) increases, 0.0209/year for CO2 increases, 0.0124/year for energy consumption (EC) rate increases, and 0.0107/year for population increases. These NCR point estimates indicate that global warming is increasing by a factor of 1.65 to 1.83 times faster than energy consumption, assessed as the leading NCR indicator, from 1975 to 2021. The reason with respect to this GW to energy consumption ratio is due to feedback amplification. This is supported by the fact that this study finds the normalized correlated rates for forcing and energy consumption show approximate equivalency in the period studied. The projected 2020-2024 feedback amplification estimates using the EC approach are 2.0 to 2.07, respectively. A feedback amplification of 2.0 (approximately equal to -2.83Wm-2K-1) doubles the forcing indicating that in 2024, more than half of global warming is likely due to feedback. This runaway threshold value in this study is denoted as a feedback-halfway (FH) tipping point, where if forcing were removed, one would question if global warming could be completely resolved without additional reverse forcing. Therefore study recommends minimally annual solar geoengineering mitigating methods to be included in the Paris Accord as an aid to help reduce climate risks. The study also estimates that 75% to 90.5% of this feedback problem is due to water vapor which has had a very large concerning increase from 2022 to 2024. Furthermore, EC approach additionally finds that feedback amplification has jumped from 0.0136 yr-1 to 0.0161 yr-1 from 2022 to 2024. Depending on the average rate, trends analysis indicates that by 2047, the earliest we may reach 10 billion people, feedback amplification could reach a value of 2.4 to 5.1. Furthermore, by 2082, the year estimated for 2xCO2, at the modeled likely rates, feedback amplification is projected to be in a range from 2.9 to 5.7 which equates to -1.53Wm-1K-1 to -0.81 Wm-1K-1, respectfully. This yields an ECS range from 2.4K to 4.6K in agreement with the reported estimated range in AR6. This paper also overviews recent data showing an urbanization forcing influence indicating that the CO2 forcing attribution may be lower by 10.7% if this forcing is considered. Since the rate of EC is shown to be a main driver for the forcing rate, we note that 75% of energy is consumed in urban areas and NCR assessment indicates energy consumption has exceeded the population growth rate by a factor of 1.159 or about 16% higher. Results also show that under “zero population growth”, the assessment indicates that global warming increases would likely be reduced by about half. *Source: ResearchGate* -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAHJsh98v2X4xQKW6P7NHAvjPN%3D%3D-De-Tt3_vY%3D3_1ySG7q-COQ%40mail.gmail.com.
