Dear Gideon,
For the moment I only read the introduction and the conclusion.
It is unclear for me if you *compared *"how geoengineering could cause
interstate military conflict" with "how *climate change alone* could cause
interstate military conflict"?
I didn't find reference to articles such as:
* Bernauer, T., & Siegfried, T. (2012). Climate change and international
water conflict in Central Asia. *Journal of Peace Research*, *49*(1),
227-239.
* Scheffran, J., & Battaglini, A. (2011). Climate and conflicts: the
security risks of global warming. *Regional Environmental Change*, *11*(Suppl
1), 27-39.
* Breckner, M., & Sunde, U. (2019). Temperature extremes, global warming,
and armed conflict: new insights from high resolution data. *World
Development*, *123*, 104624.
* Klare, M. T. (2007). Global warming battlefields: how climate change
threatens security. *Current History*, *106*(703), 355-361.
* Book: Mazo, J. (2010). *Climate conflict: How global warming threatens
security and what to do about it*. Routledge.
* Book:  Chellaney, B. (2015). *Water, peace, and war: Confronting the
global water crisis*. Bloomsbury Publishing PLC.



Le ven. 3 oct. 2025 à 11:45, Gideon Futerman <[email protected]> a
écrit :

> I recently published a new preprint examining the link of Solar
> geoengineering and war:
>  Sky Wars: Escalation Pathways in the Age of Solar Geoengineering by
> Gideon Futerman, Peter Rautenbach :: SSRN
> <https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5434715>.
> Brief summary of what we aim to do in the article:
> - Provides the most complete literature review of discussions of how
> geoengineering could cause interstate military conflict to date
> - Explain conflict enabling securitisation dynamics with regards to SRM
> - Explain an existing archetype for scenarios where SRM could cause war
> using this theory, hopefully strengthening our understanding of plausible
> conflict mechanisms
> - Propose a new archetype for how SRM combined with countergeoengineering
> could cause conflict
>
> The abstract is as follows:
>
> As the salience of Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) - also known as
> Solar Geoengineering - rises, there have been increasing discussions of the
> possible security and conflict implications of these technologies. This
> piece looks at SRM through the lens of securitization and how SRM can
> securitize climate change and related disasters. Critically, SRM can enable
> climate disasters to be attributed to SRM-deploying actors. By creating a
> "threatening Other” on which to blame climate change, securitisation and
> exceptional measures, such as conflict, can be pursued in response to
> climatic events. Using past work, this piece builds a typology of conflict
> pathways and explores how the causal mechanisms illuminated by
> securitisation help explain conflict risk in these scenarios. Finally, with
> conflict-inducing-securitization in mind, we add a new, unexplored,
> conflict risk which outlines how conflict could occur in response to
> counter-geoengineering — a response to SRM which has been seen as an
> offramp for conflict risk.
>
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