David,
I especially recommend the first two references below. The others are
valuable pieces on the challenge of communicating uncertainty to
non-scientists. And you may already know of Kai Lee's classic book
"Compass and Gyroscope."
--Paul
Henry N. Pollack, Uncertain Science...Uncertain World, Cambridge
University Press, 2003.
M. Granger Morgan and Max Henrion, The Nature and Sources of
Uncertainty, pp. 47-72 in Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with
Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis, Cambridge
University Press, 1990.
Jane Gregory and Steve Miller, An ABC of Risk - Apples, Beef, and
Comets, pp. 166-195 in Science in Public: Communication, Culture, and
Credibility, Plenum Press, 1998.
Paul Slovic, Beyond Numbers: A Broader Perspective on Risk Perception
and Risk Communication, pp. 48-65 in Deborah G. Mayo and Rachelle D.
Hollander, Acceptable Evidence: Science and Values in Risk Management,
Oxford University Press, 1991.
A. Tversky and D. Kahneman (1981) The Framing of Decisions and the
Psychology of Choice, Science 211: 453-458.
Harvey Brooks (1984) The Resolution of Technically Intensive Public
Policy Disputes, Science, Technology, & Human Values 9 (1):39-50.
S. Holly Stocking, How Journalists Deal with Scientific Uncertainty (pp.
23-41), and Sharon Dunwoody, Scientists, Journalists, and the Meaning of
Uncertainty (pp. 59-79), both in Friedman, Dunwoody and Rogers (eds.),
Communicating Uncertainty: Media Coverage of New and Controversial
Science, Lawrence Erlbaum Assoc. Publ., 1999.
Andy Stirling and David Gee (2002) Science, Precaution, and Practice,
Public Health Reports 117:521-533.
Robert Costanza, Laura Cornwell, and Wendy Cleland-Hamnett, Are
Worst-Case Estimates of Risk the Best Method for Making Environmental
Decisions?, pp. 18-35 in Thomas Easton (ed.), Taking Sides: Clashing
Views on Controversial Issues in Science, Technology, and Society,
Dushkin Publ., 1995.
Edna F. Einsiedel and Deborah L. Eastlick (2000) Consensus Conferences
as Deliberative Democracy, Science Communication 21(4):323-343.
Scott T. McCreary, John K. Gamman, and Bennett Brooks (2001) Refining
and Testing Joint Fact-Finding for Environmental Dispute Resolution: Ten
Years of Success, Mediation Quarterly, Volume 18(4).
--
Paul F. Steinberg
Assistant Professor of Political Science & Environmental Policy
Harvey Mudd College
301 E. Platt Boulevard
Claremont, CA 91711
tel. 909-607-3840
