Dear friends and colleagues,
The list exchange on this topic has been particularly vibrant and
enriching. Thanks everyone for your thoughts! Remarkable how many
different interpretations of the Copenhagen outcome. I was fortunate
to witness the full story from within until the end at 15:30 pm
Saturday.
The last hours were the most dramatic episode of world politics I have
experienced. Picture Latin American delegates physically pressed
against the wall of the Plenary podium by a crowd, under pressure to
give the Accord green light. Next to me, a Swiss delegate telling
them: "You won't get the money. You will never get the money again!"
Five feet in front of me, the President of the Maldives begging a low-
level official from Bolivia: "Please madam, this is our last chance. I
have two daughters and our nation is going underwater ..."
I hope you will find my observations below helpful in making sense of
Copenhagen. For the full detailed story, can you help with suggestions
of outlets? ISA journals do not want the raw 'inside perspective'
story. GEP alone responded favourably but only for a brief Forum
piece. Any ideas on getting the full story out quickly would be
appreciated.
The Copenhagen story could actually be quite short and clear. What
happened? Our worst-case scenario (political declaration) turned into
an even worse case scenario. When two years of negotiations failed to
produce anything for Heads of States (HOS), the HOS rolled up their
sleeves and, pens in hands, were actually drafting the text of the
political declaration called "the Copenhagen Accord." There were three
successive drafts, each slimmer and lighter than the other. The final
text of 2.5 pages contains nothing of the negotiating texts. And when
we hit rock bottom, things got even worse: After Obama and other HOS
flew away on Friday night with a declaration in their wake, the
conference failed to rubberstamp even the declaration! Thus, the
magnitude of failure exceeded all our expectations. The only positive
development is the $$ pledges for 2010-2012 from the EU, Japan, Norway
and Russia.
Assessment: The overall situation now is worse than before Copenhagen.
Apart from the funding pledges, the conference delivered little but
managed to destroy existing hope for the UN process. Before COP15 we
were hoping that Heads of State could cut the Gordian knot in one fell
swoop and resolve outstanding political differences that paralyzed
negotiations for 2 years. 115 kings, presidents and prime ministers in
the same building is the highest concentration of robust
decisionmaking power the world has even seen. They could have settled
any differences. Now we lost even that hope: if Heads of State cannot
jumpstart global climate governance, then who can?
To finish on a positive note and cheer you for the holidays, Earl
Saxon, a consummate intellectual and veteran observer of climate/
forest policy gives the following brilliant comedy reflecting actual
negotiation dynamics. It is great for your students:
http://canwiki.org/public/BBC4-NowShow-COP15-DrSeuss/BBC4-NowShow-COP15-DrSeuss.mp3
Best regards and happy holidays to all!
Rado
Radoslav S. Dimitrov, Ph.D.
Associate Professor
Department of Political Science
University of Western Ontario
Social Science Centre
London, Ontario
Canada N6A 5C2
Tel. +1(519) 661-2111 ext. 85023
Fax +1(519) 661-3904
Email: [email protected]
On Dec 23, 2009, at 7:05 AM, Earl Saxon wrote:
Ted, Rado,
Greetings from tropical Singapore where the temperature is above
80degF/27degC, sun peeps through the clouds from time to time,
mangosteens and durians are in season and I found a great second-
hand bookstore, too. In short, it's a fine place to recuperate for a
few days.
Here's the best summary I have found of the goings-on at Copenhagen:
http://canwiki.org/public/BBC4-NowShow-COP15-DrSeuss/BBC4-NowShow-COP15-DrSeuss.mp3
I look forward to your more scholarly interpretations in due course.
Happy hols,
Earl.
Radoslav S. Dimitrov, Ph.D.
Associate Professor
Department of Political Science
University of Western Ontario
Social Science Centre
London, Ontario
Canada N6A 5C2
Tel. +1(519) 661-2111 ext. 85023
Fax +1(519) 661-3904
Email: [email protected]
