How the Rest Can Catch Up With the West "The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read or write; they will be those who cannot learn, unlearn, and re-learn." -- Alan Tofler
Subscriptions to mobile telephones exceeded the number of fixed telephones globally in 2002, according to the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). In developing countries without sufficient fixed telephone infrastructure, wireless growth has been explosive, with mobile phones becoming the first and only telephones for the majority of new subscribers. Africa was the first continent to have more mobile lines than fixed and, with a mobile growth rate of 77.9%, is the fastest growing in the World. In reality, Africa is a world leader when it comes to mobile communications. Until recently, Africa ranked least using any parameter of growth. Inadequate supply of fixed lines often gave the West the false impression that there was no demand for mobile communications in Africa. Some even suggested that telephone affordability was non-existent on the Continent. However, mobile telephony is putting Africa in positive light. 84.8% of all mobile lines in Africa are digital, far greater than all other Continents, except Asia (90.1%). When you consider that the same figure for Europe is 59.4%, Americas 56.5%, Oceania 83.7%, then you will appreciate the import of the African mobile explosion. The primary factor responsible for the phenomenal take-up of mobile lines in Africa is the failure of government-owned public telephone utilities throughout the Continent to satisfy the huge demand for communications by the vast generality of the people. Nearly all the National Telephone Carriers have failed to deliver telephone service cheaply and efficiently. The take-up of GSM phones in many African countries has demonstrated, beyond reasonable doubt, that there is significant pent-up demand for communications services, even among relatively low income users. Other drivers of growth are the increasing adoption of the policy of market liberalization by African governments leading to the licensing of aggressive private companies who are competing among each other to make mobile services increasingly affordable. These companies are essentially African in equity, character and operations. Without a doubt, competition is a major driver of the mobile explosion. With prepaid, mobile has become even more affordable as users are able to control their telephone expenditure without undergoing credit checks or being tied to long term contracts. The use of mobiles now cuts across all social classes. >From a mere 646,500 mobile lines in 1995, Africa now has in excess of 36 million mobile subscribers. No other segment of the economy is growing as rapidly. Cumulative annual growth rate is averagely 77%, and mobile is growing faster than most other economic sectors. Several African countries now have double-digit mobile penetration of the population, far beyond the finest predictions of most analysts. Countries with double-digit mobile penetration include Seychelles (53%), South Africa (30%), Botswana (24%), Gabon (21%), and Morocco (20%). Other countries with extremely rapid growth and acceptance of mobile technology with subscriptions in excess of 1 million include Nigeria, Cote DIvoire, Kenya, Ghana, and Egypt. Even war-torn Sudan still manages to have nearly 200,000 mobile users despite the ravaging civil war in that country. Africa is becoming a shining example of how mobile communications is changing lives worldwide. There are several implications of the mobile revolution. I shall zero in on just two. Africa may be the first continent with pervasive mobile Internet The only constraint to this happening now is two-fold. First is the limitation of GSM technology. GSM support for broadband Internet technologies, a key requirement to productive Internet access, is evolving at the moment. There is no clear-cut, globally acceptable single means of assessing the Internet via a mobile device on a GSM network. Whether it is WAP, GPRS, EDGE, or ETC (!), GSM support for the Internet is extremely weak. This is why bypass technologies such as Wi-Fi, and Wi-Max are in strong demand. The second reason is the poor usability of mobile phones as Internet access devices. But this problem would be solved and the Internet will soon merge with, and converge into, mobile devices. When that happens, the digital revolution in Africa would be even more explosive. Think of it again. The day you can conveniently use your regular mobile phone (and I'm not talking of expensive esoteric models as the Communicator) to send emails to your loved ones in the village and browse for current prices of cement (for instance), that day your need for the services of a place to browse would diminish! The place to browse would be right in your hands! And that day is not too far-fetched. The most innovative uses of mobile technology will come out of Africa With minimal fixed line infrastructure, and virtually no backbone for Internet traffic, African mobile operators will (and cannot afford not to) come up with solutions and applications that are novel to the West. These new mobile technology solutions (and derivatives) will enable companies doing business in Africa to inter-act seamlessly with their workforce using any platform or device. Mobile will ensure that Africans are able to connect with each other anytime, anyhow and using any device. GSM networks will be pushed to operational limits and driven far in excess of intrinsic abilities as Africans derive new and unique methods of staying connected. So how can the Rest of the World catch up with the West? Simply by replicating the lessons learnt from the Mobile Miracle in all sectors of their economies. These lessons include: * Opening up of the economy to full participation by local and international private companies. * Elimination of monopolies and their abuse of market dominance. * Minimal, but transparent, regulatory intervention. * Locating and satisfying the demand for services by the populace. * Encouraging the use of open standards, protocols and technologies. * Protecting the consumer from ill-treatment by operators. * Reducing rural-urban migration by encouraging geographical spread of services. * Removing bureaucratic bottlenecks relating to trade and imports. * Making technology a front burner issue. African countries can catch up with the West, maybe not as producers of technology, but definitely as distributors and consumers of the most innovative technology solutions. Africa can utilize the power of the Last Mover Advantage to leapfrog and reach the heights already attained and taken for granted by developed economies. It appears that the sun has begun to shine on Africa. Yes, the continent missed the agrarian revolution. Yes, she missed the industrial revolution. But she earnestly longs not to miss the information revolution. Would you help her? -------------------------------------------------------------------- Fola Odufuwa is Executive Director, eShekels Limited, Nigeria's premier technology research firm and is based in Lagos. Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] ------------ This DOT-COM Discussion is funded by the dot-ORG USAID Cooperative Agreement, and hosted by GKD. http://www.dot-com-alliance.org provides more information. 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