This is an interesting conversation and I see the points from both sides. I think Ken is right in questioning the idea that you cannot as Tim says "skip the first three stages and go straight to flying."
I want to make an important distinction here between infrastructure approach and readiness and mental/organizational capacity/readiness. There are preconditions to "take off" such as outlined by former Kennedy/Johnson advisor Walter Rostow: <http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:RcpyDDw_J4wJ:www.duke.edu/~jcd10/SO C126/Devolop1.doc+stages+to+take-off&hl=en&lr=lang_en> I feel also that these preconditions to nation-state development "critical mass" also apply today. Because what Rostow is talking about applies not just to nation states but to all aspects of human development. His stages to take-off are a generalized set of criteria relating to developing momentum towards a critical mass within a particular system towards rapid growth and replication. >From my perspective we are talking about a rule of physics that applies to human phenomena and relates specifically to a core area of interest to the group here: growth and modernization (and preferably fitting the "triple bottom line" criteria of ecologically, socially and economically sustainable development). I see ICT as an augmentation tool that can rapidly change the dynamics and characteristics of the growth curve that Rostow described. The concept of disruptive technologies offers another new concept to the mix. When disruptive technologies as well as approaches are applied effectively as part of a comprehensive package of solutions to address not only development, but world urgent issues like global warming, AIDS and loss of biodiversity, we start to see that the old rules of development don't always apply. Now I want to emphasize I am not talking about rejecting Rostow's assumptions because to me to reject those preconditions he is talking about is sort of like saying the law of conservation of energy does not apply. However what we see is many assumptions that conventional development policymakers and economists make about the best way to develop a society not only are increasingly irrelevant, but are counterproductive to the stated goals and intentions. What many of us are seeing materialize is something that is truly a bittersweet experience for us, because we see the potential of disruptive technologies and approaches to totally transform human reality like never before. However, the human network readiness on a global level is still not in place to properly execute this. Therefore, it is very frustrating for many of us to visualize the integration of these various disruptive technologies and approaches into a comprehensive and whole systems approach to sustainable development. We see the potential is there but the capacity to effectively implement (so that the effectiveness of ICT as an augmentation tool is obvious and unchallenged) is still missing. The central component of this thesis relates not only to ICT/wireless. What we are seeing is that new technologies in every aspect of human existence are rapidly making the old technologies and centralized infrastructure systems obsolete. This has important implications on the very way in which economies grow because: 1) It impacts ROI, primarily by significantly reducing the infrastructure costs of development. 2) We are at a unique point in history. Those previously marginalized by highly hierarchical systems of command and control suddenly have access to tools to disrupt the conventional order/status quo of contemporary society. The technologies are there and ready to be applied, what is needed now is the effective ICT augmented global network. However, this is not just an issue of organization but mental and organizational readiness: right attitude and right mindset. There has to be a basic level of educational aptitude, strong social networks, effective governance, financial backing, a general economic justification for developing an integrated ICT infrastructure and network and finally a firm resolve to do so, and maybe that is what Tim is getting at. You can have all the innovative ideas about wireless networks and disruptive and sustainable technologies, but if there is not the right execution or implementation, it has limited value... as theory that seems plausible but is not proven to be true on a practical level. To effectively address the unprecedented challenges that humanity now faces (which extend far beyond issues of development to embrace the very nature of modernity and human existence) we need to get many of us (including me) who spend a lot of time on the computers talking, more fully engaged in implementation in the field. Jeff Buderer | [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sustainable Design/Project Development oneVillage Foundation USA | http://www.onevillagefoundation.org oneVillage.biz | www.onevillage.biz 102 Ballatore Ct. San Jose CA 95134 Cell 408.813.5135 Yahoo IM: jefbuder http://www.ryze.com/go/Jefbuder On 12/31/04 Ken DiPietro wrote: > With all due respect, what Timothy has outlined here is what is known in > my world as the "Good Enough" solution. Forgive me if I interpreted your > position incorrectly Timothy, but as I understand it, you believe we > should build dirt roads out of the cow paths because people in Nigeria > are only capable of crawling and maybe - just maybe - we can someday > teach them to walk. ..snip... > What amazes me is that specifically in Nigeria, we can roll out a better > than "Good Enough" network with no additional influx of money - not one > red cent - if the powers that be will change their mindset and allow us > access to the infrastructure that is already in place. On 12/28/04, Timothy A Gilbert wrote: > What is the phrase "crawl, walk, run, fly". It sounds like someone in > Nigeria wants to skip the first three stages and go straight to flying. > On the other hand there is a chicken and egg problem here to mix > metaphors. Why train/educate people in basic sciences if there are no > jobs for them to apply their knowledge and skills? The challenge, it > would seem, is to find an engine consistent with current conditions that > runs on part economic development, infrastructure, training, higher > education, venture capital and government support. Once the engine is > running sufficiently to enable the full life-cycle of elementary > education through job aquisition, it can be revved up to drive down the > path toward a Technology Village. ------------ ***GKD is solely supported by EDC, a Non-Profit Organization*** To post a message, send it to: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To subscribe or unsubscribe, send a message to: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>. In the 1st line of the message type: subscribe gkd OR type: unsubscribe gkd Archives of previous GKD messages can be found at: <http://www.edc.org/GLG/gkd/>
