My private key is encrypted with a very strong passphrase (10 word
diceware [1], not written down, 129 bits of entropy). Given that, is it
safe to back it up on disks I don't control, such as a private S3 bucket
or a VPS? My intuition says yes, but I've learned to never trust my
intuition when it comes to security.

If you are completely confident that no one will ever get your passphrase from you, this is safe. Otherwise, it's not.

It may be appropriate to have a little caution with respect to whether you believe anyone will ever get your passphrase from you.

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