My prediction is increased costs for scholarly publishing and a decrease in 
access as a result of this well-intentioned but poorly thought out policy. My 
comments below are posted here: 
http://poeticeconomics.blogspot.ca/2013/03/predicting-increasing-costs-and.html

The Research Councils UK (RCUK) has just issued a revised OA Policy and 
Guidance 
http://www.rcuk.ac.uk/documents/documents/RCUKOpenAccessPolicyandRevisedguidance.pdf

This is a stellar example of well-intentioned but poorly crafted government 
policy. I predict that this policy will increase the costs of scholarly 
publishing by creating an incentive for publishers to develop open access 
article processing fees with no incentive to keep prices reasonable and 
actually decrease access, by providing an incentive for journals to increase 
embargo periods (to force authors to choose the OA via APF). 

Relevant sections of the policy:

Expectations of researchers:

Researchers, as the generators of all of the research papers and responsible 
for much of their peer review, are expected to publish any peer-reviewed 
research papers... in journals that are compliant with the RCUK policy on Open 
Access. 
 
Compliance of journals:
 
RCUK recognises a journal as being compliant with this policy if: 
 
The journal provides, via its own website, immediate and unrestricted access to 
the final published version of the paper, which should be made available using 
the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) licence. This may involve payment of 
an ‘Article Proces sing Charge’ (APC) to the publisher. 
 
Or,
 
The journal consents to deposit of the final Accepted Manuscript in any 
repository, without restriction on non-commercial re-use and within a defined 
period. No APC will be payable to the publisher. In this latter case, RCUK will 
accept a delay of no more than six months between on-line publication and the 
final Accepted Manuscript becoming Open Access. In the case of papers in the 
arts, humanities and social sciences (which will mainly be funded by the AHRC 
and the ESRC), the maximum embargo period will be twelve months. In some 
circumstances, where funding for APCs is unavailable during the transition 
period, longer embargo periods may be allowable (see section 3.5).
Comment: this policy provides journals an incentive to offer an open access 
option via article processing fees which authors are forced to choose if the 
journal's embargo period is longer than what is acceptable to RCUK. The UK only 
produces about 6% of the world's scholarly literature, so OA to this literature 
will not enable UK libraries to cancel subscriptions. To maximize revenue, a 
journal can provide an OA via APF option at the price of their choosing and 
extend the embargo period to avoid having authors choose the self-archiving 
option. The majority of scholarship is not nationally based, so increased 
embargo periods are unlikely to be restricted to the UK. This means that the UK 
is likely to enjoy less access to non-UK scholarship in the coming years than 
would be the case if this policy had not been adopted.

Thus in spite of the best of intentions this is a poor policy and let's hope 
funders elsewhere do not look to this as a model. Fortunately in this case the 
US is getting it right! 
http://poeticeconomics.blogspot.ca/2013/02/kudos-and-thanks-to-us-sponsors-of.html

Another problem with the policy is the assumption that licensing (CC-BY) can 
achieve the re-usability that is desired. As I've discussed in detail elsewhere 
http://poeticeconomics.blogspot.ca/2012/10/critique-of-cc-by-series.html, this 
just won't work. The result will be a corpus of CC-BY licensed locked-down PDFs 
or even more open documents with locked-down image-based charts and graphs that 
are useless for text and data-mining and re-use.

best,

Dr. Heather Morrison
The Imaginary Journal of Poetic Economics
http://poeticeconomics.blogspot.com
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