hi Eric,

Thank you for sharing your data.

It is a good point that measuring growth requires repeated collection of the 
same measures at different points in time. That is why I developed Dramatic 
Growth as a quarterly series over a decade ago.

It is a fact that Open access archives have grown from being virtually 
non-existent a little more than a decade ago to over 4,000 today included in at 
least 3 repository registry or services (OpenDOAR, Registry of Open Access 
Repositories, BASE), and that each of these services showed strong growth in 
repository numbers over the past year. BASE's cross-search of repositories 
finds 18 million more documents in June 30, 2016 than it did on June 30, 2015. 
The total number of documents BASE searches is now over 93 million. This is 
strong evidence for two facts: institutions continue to build repositories and 
globally repositories contain a lot of content.

This is important. Gold OA advocates should ask themselves whether there are 
any macro-level indicators suggesting growth by 18 million documents in the 
past year for gold. Even though Elsevier continues to expand, even Elsevier 
only publishes a very small fraction of this number.

Critique of the numbers and further research would be helpful - I don't have 
time if anyone would like to take this on -  (what % of BASE documents are open 
access? peer-reviewed articles? duplicates?), but simple dismissal is not 
scientific. Some of these works will be grey literature that previously would 
have had very limited distribution. Archives accomplish things that gold OA 
does not focus on.

Growth in OA archives may seem slow to us; deposit in our local repository is 
not the 100% we would like to be. However the global numbers suggest a 
different picture. To me this is evidence supporting  (not proving)  a 
hypothesis of a slow global roll-out of what is becoming a ubiquitous and 
necessary service for universities.

My numbers are very basic and are intended to be the most macro and global 
indices available. Other approaches to the broad research question of numbers 
on scholarly work and open access are welcome and useful. I encourage others to 
conduct and share research and their own stats as many services do.

best,

Heather Morrison


-------- Original message --------
From: Éric Archambault <eric.archamba...@science-metrix.com>
Date: 07-01-2016 7:02 AM (GMT-05:00)
To: "Global Open Access List (Successor of AmSci)" <goal@eprints.org>
Subject: Re: [GOAL] Dramatic Growth of Open Access: June 30, 2016

Heather,

In the absence of strong evidence, it is difficult to speak of a dramatic 
growth. The specific challenge of measuring OA availability is that in order to 
measure growth you need to measure at different points in time with the same 
measure or to be able to re-calibrate your measures for each different 
measures. This is due to the effects of journals which contents become free 
over time, embargoes, and backfilling.

Here are measures of gratis OA availability as measured in 122 oncology and 
carcinogenesis journals by examining what is currently available in 1science 
oaIndx (which compiles gratis OA) coupled with data from Thomson Reuters Web of 
Science (WoS). Please note that this is a population based measure (all of the 
papers in WoS for these journals are measured) but we haven't done a 
calibration of oaIndx in this field so I cannot tell you what the recall and 
precision are. I would say precision is about 98 to 99% and recall between 70% 
to 80%, meaning these percentages could be multiplied by an approximate 
calibration factor of about 1.33. The results are presented here - I just 
computed them as I'm finishing a report on a German university's library's 
subscriptions and had these data available by extracting this small part from 
the report. The one before last column is the measured, floor quantity of 
gratis OA. This shows that as measured in June 2016, the effect of backfilling 
and desembargoing could be substantial but as we don't have a similar point of 
measure back in time this can only be surmised. What is clear is that in such 
an important area of research for human health, embargoes are still hurting 
free knowledge circulation and we are still too far from 100% gratis OA.

These data are CC BY - feel free to use - cite the List here if you want to use 
(sorry too busy to publish anything these days)

Gratis OA papers found and total papers in WoS in 122 published in journals 
classified in "Oncology & Carcinogenesis" (Science-Metrix Journal 
Classification)

Year // Papers in 1science oaIndx//Papers in WoS // Measured % Gratis OA // 
Approx. % with 1.33 calibration
2006    8,368   16,890  50%     66%
2007    8,915   17,775  50%     67%
2008    9,492   18,358  52%     69%
2009    9,394   18,684  50%     67%
2010    10,207  19,236  53%     71%
2011    9,910   19,694  50%     67%
2012    9,940   21,135  47%     63%
2013    12,046  23,597  51%     68%
2014    12,487  26,201  48%     64%
2015    7,975   24,003  33%     44%
Source: Computed by Science-Metrix in collaboration with 1science using 
1science oaIndx and Thomson Reuters' Web of Science data.


Have a nice Canada day!


Eric Archambault, Ph.D.
President and CEO | Président-directeur général
Science-Metrix & 1science





-----Original Message-----
From: goal-boun...@eprints.org [mailto:goal-boun...@eprints.org] On Behalf Of 
Heather Morrison
Sent: June 30, 2016 4:46 PM
To: Global Open Access List (Successor of AmSci) <goal@eprints.org>
Subject: [GOAL] Dramatic Growth of Open Access: June 30, 2016

The June 30, 2016 version of the Dramatic Growth of Open Access is now 
available:
http://poeticeconomics.blogspot.ca/2016/06/dramatic-growth-of-open-access-june-30.html

Highlights

Over 40% of the cancer literature indexed by PubMed is available as full-text 
within 3 years of publication (17% within 30 days) Internet Archive exceeds 10 
million free texts Ongoing strong growth in open access archives, both 
repositories and content, as seen through OpenDOAR, ROAR, and BASE 50% annual 
growth rate for the Directory of Open Access Books Directory of Open Access 
Journals has overall negative growth due to major clean-up but showed strong 
growth in articles searchable at article level and now adding titles at the 
rate of 4.5 per day Concern noted about the apparent ongoing dramatic growth of 
Elsevier

best,

--
Dr. Heather Morrison
Assistant Professor
École des sciences de l'information / School of Information Studies University 
of Ottawa http://www.sis.uottawa.ca/faculty/hmorrison.html
Sustaining the Knowledge Commons http://sustainingknowledgecommons.org/
heather.morri...@uottawa.ca



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